Samsunspor 1-1 Rizespor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rizespor at 35%, yet in-form Samsunspor provide a compelling counter-argument — this Samsunspor vs Rizespor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu plays host to Samsunspor versus Rizespor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Monday 27 October 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Samsunspor (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Samsunspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Samsunspor's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Rizespor have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D L W L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Rizespor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rizespor away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Samsunspor's favour (1.90 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Samsunspor 2W, Rizespor 2W, 0D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Feb 2025, ended 2–3 with Rizespor winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Samsunspor — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Rizespor — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Samsunspor 47% versus Rizespor 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Samsunspor 53% | Rizespor 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Samsunspor 1.38 xG and Rizespor 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Samsunspor attack 0.943 / defence 0.914 | Rizespor attack 1.182 / defence 1.088. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.306. Data: 45 Samsunspor games / 45 Rizespor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Samsunspor 34% | Draw 31% | Rizespor 35%. Fair-value odds: Samsunspor 2.94 | Draw 3.23 | Rizespor 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rizespor are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Samsunspor (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rizespor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Samsunspor 40% | Rizespor 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Samsunspor vs Rizespor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 27 Oct 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Samsunspor 34% | Draw 31% | Rizespor 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 59% | xG Samsunspor 1.38 / Rizespor 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Samsunspor attack 0.943 / def 0.914 | Rizespor attack 1.182 / def 1.088 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.306 • Poisson stance: Rizespor (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Samsunspor xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Rizespor xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Samsunspor vs Rizespor kick off?
Samsunspor vs Rizespor kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 27 October 2025 at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Samsunspor vs Rizespor?
Samsunspor 1 - 1 Rizespor.
Where is Samsunspor vs Rizespor being played?
The match is being played at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu.
What competition is Samsunspor vs Rizespor part of?
Samsunspor vs Rizespor is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Samsunspor vs Rizespor?
Our statistical model gives Samsunspor a 34% chance of winning, Rizespor a 35% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Rizespor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Samsunspor vs Rizespor?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Samsunspor and Rizespor will score (BTTS).
Will Samsunspor vs Rizespor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Samsunspor and Rizespor?
Record (4 meetings): Samsunspor 2W | Draws 0 | Rizespor 2W.
What form are Samsunspor and Rizespor in?
Samsunspor (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-D-W. Rizespor (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Samsunspor's attack at 0.94x the league average against Rizespor's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Rizespor's attack (1.18x) against Samsunspor's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rizespor Win
34%
2.94
31%
3.26
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Samsunspor xG
Total xG
2.79
1.41
Rizespor xG
2.94
34%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
24%
4.10
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
8%
12.07
9%
11.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 8.7 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.9 | 8.4 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.2 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Samsunspor vs Rizespor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Samsunspor and Rizespor expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Samsunspor and 1.41 for Rizespor, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Samsunspor vs Rizespor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Samsunspor come into this having played 45 games, going 23W 11D 11L for 1.78 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-D-W. The sample for Samsunspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Rizespor sit at 1.29 PPG from 45 outings (17W 7D 21L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Rizespor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Samsunspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.49 PPG clear of Rizespor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Samsunspor's home form reads 13W 4D 5L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.95 PPG return.
Away from home, Rizespor have taken 1.05 points per game from 22 outings (7W 2D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Samsunspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Samsunspor are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Rizespor are on 1.38 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Defensively: Samsunspor have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Samsunspor
Blended
Rizespor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Samsunspor and Rizespor in coming into this match?
Samsunspor have gone 23W 11D 11L in their last 45 games (1.78 PPG), while Rizespor have gone 17W 7D 21L in their last 45 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Samsunspor at home or Rizespor away?
Samsunspor's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Samsunspor at home: 1.95 PPG; Rizespor away: 1.05 PPG.
Have Samsunspor or Rizespor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Samsunspor have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Rizespor in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since October 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Samsunspor won 3-0 on 23 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Samsunspor have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Rizespor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Samsunspor
1
Draws
3
Rizespor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Samsunspor and Rizespor?
From 7 meetings on record, Samsunspor have won 3, Rizespor have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Samsunspor and Rizespor last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Rizespor 0-2 Samsunspor.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Samsunspor 50%, Rizespor 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Samsunspor) and 64% (Rizespor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Samsunspor keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Rizespor in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Samsunspor home games / Rizespor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Samsunspor play Rizespor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Samsunspor's recent matches and 59% of Rizespor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Samsunspor vs Rizespor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Samsunspor's matches and 64% of Rizespor's.
Do Samsunspor and Rizespor tend to score early?
Samsunspor have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Rizespor in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Samsunspor and Rizespor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Samsunspor and Rizespor finished level at 1-1 at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu, Regular Season - 10, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Samsunspor 1.38 xG and Rizespor 1.41 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Samsunspor attack 0.94 / defence 0.91 against Rizespor attack 1.18 / defence 1.09, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Samsunspor 34% | Draw 31% | Rizespor 35%, with Rizespor to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Samsunspor 53%, Rizespor 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Samsunspor's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Rizespor's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Samsunspor arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.29. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.