Samsunspor 0-0 Başakşehir – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Başakşehir at 41% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Samsunspor vs Başakşehir encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Samsunspor host Başakşehir at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu in Süper Lig (matchday 9). Kick-off is Sunday 22 October 2023 at 18:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Samsunspor — last 7 games: 0W 1D 6L, averaging 0.14 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.71 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly.
Across their last 10 games, Başakşehir have recorded 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Başakşehir away from home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Başakşehir — 1.16 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.14). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Trading Patterns
Samsunspor in-play and half-time data (last 7 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; they fail to score in 43% of games.
Başakşehir in-play and half-time data (last 7 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 14% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 57% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Samsunspor 57% versus Başakşehir 14%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Samsunspor 43% | Başakşehir 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Samsunspor 1.01 xG and Başakşehir 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Samsunspor attack 0.742 / defence 1.313 | Başakşehir attack 0.829 / defence 0.920. League average goals — home 1.475 / away 1.214. Samsunspor's attack rating of 0.742 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.01. Samsunspor's defence rating of 1.313 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Başakşehir's projected output up. Data: built from Samsunspor's last 7 games and Başakşehir's last 44.
Result probabilities: Samsunspor 26% | Draw 32% | Başakşehir 41%. Fair-value odds: Samsunspor 3.83 | Draw 3.09 | Başakşehir 2.41. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Başakşehir are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Başakşehir offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.33 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 59% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 51%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Samsunspor 57% (last 7 games) | Başakşehir 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Samsunspor vs Başakşehir | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 9 | Venue: Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 22 October 2023 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Samsunspor 26% | Draw 32% | Başakşehir 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Samsunspor 1.01 / Başakşehir 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Samsunspor attack 0.742 / def 1.313 | Başakşehir attack 0.829 / def 0.920 | league avg home 1.475 / away 1.214 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Samsunspor xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Başakşehir xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Samsunspor vs Başakşehir FAQs
What time does Samsunspor vs Başakşehir kick off?
Samsunspor vs Başakşehir kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Sunday 22 October 2023 at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Samsunspor vs Başakşehir?
Samsunspor 0 - 0 Başakşehir.
Where is Samsunspor vs Başakşehir being played?
The match is being played at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu.
What competition is Samsunspor vs Başakşehir part of?
Samsunspor vs Başakşehir is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 9) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Samsunspor vs Başakşehir?
Our statistical model gives Samsunspor a 26% chance of winning, Başakşehir a 41% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Samsunspor vs Başakşehir?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Samsunspor and Başakşehir will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Samsunspor vs Başakşehir have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Samsunspor's attack rating (0.74) and Başakşehir's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.01 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Başakşehir's attack versus Samsunspor's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Samsunspor's last 7 games and Başakşehir's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 0-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
26%
3.83
32%
3.09
41%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Samsunspor xG
Total xG
2.33
1.32
Başakşehir xG
3.83
26%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
2.41
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
27%
3.75
36%
2.74
Win to Nil
7%
14.34
15%
6.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 12.9 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 13.0 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 6.5 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Samsunspor vs Başakşehir Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Samsunspor vs Başakşehir?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Samsunspor and Başakşehir expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Samsunspor and 1.32 for Başakşehir, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Samsunspor vs Başakşehir?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 7 outings, Samsunspor have picked up 0.14 PPG on a 0W 1D 6L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Başakşehir's form line: 2W 1D 4L from 7 games, 1.00 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-W.
Put side by side, Başakşehir are the form team by 0.86 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Samsunspor.
The Goals Picture
Samsunspor are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Başakşehir are on 0.71 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Başakşehir in 14%.
Defensively: Başakşehir in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Samsunspor
Early Season
Başakşehir
Early Season
Samsunspor (Home) vs Başakşehir (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Samsunspor
Early Season
Başakşehir
Early Season
❓ Samsunspor vs Başakşehir Form FAQs
What form are Samsunspor and Başakşehir in coming into this match?
Samsunspor have gone 0W 1D 6L in their last 7 games (0.14 PPG), while Başakşehir have gone 2W 1D 4L in their last 7 (1.00 PPG).
Have Samsunspor or Başakşehir been keeping clean sheets recently?
Samsunspor have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Başakşehir in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 7 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2023. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was as recently as 1 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Başakşehir have won the most recent 4 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 1 Feb 2025, when Başakşehir won Başakşehir 4-0 Samsunspor.
Samsunspor's record when hosting Başakşehir specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Samsunspor
1
Draws
5
Başakşehir
Recent Meetings
❓ Samsunspor vs Başakşehir H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Samsunspor and Başakşehir?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Samsunspor have won 1, Başakşehir have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Samsunspor and Başakşehir last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 November 2026: Başakşehir 5-2 Samsunspor.
Who has won more matches between Samsunspor and Başakşehir?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Başakşehir see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Samsunspor 57%, Başakşehir 14% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Samsunspor) and 29% (Başakşehir).
On the defensive side: Başakşehir in 43%; Samsunspor have failed to score in 43% of games; Başakşehir in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Samsunspor home games / Başakşehir away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Samsunspor vs Başakşehir Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Samsunspor and Başakşehir matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Samsunspor's recent matches and 14% of Başakşehir's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Samsunspor and Başakşehir matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Samsunspor's recent games and 29% of Başakşehir's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Samsunspor and Başakşehir matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Samsunspor's recent matches and 57% of Başakşehir's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Samsunspor's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu, Regular Season - 9, as Samsunspor and Başakşehir drew 0-0 in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Samsunspor 1.01 xG and Başakşehir 1.32 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Samsunspor fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Başakşehir landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Samsunspor attack 0.74 / defence 1.31 against Başakşehir attack 0.83 / defence 0.92, drawn from 7/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Samsunspor 26% | Draw 32% | Başakşehir 41%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Samsunspor 43%, Başakşehir 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Samsunspor's trading profile (7 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Başakşehir's trading profile (7 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 14% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 57% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Başakşehir arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.14. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Samsunspor conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Başakşehir conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.