Samsunspor 1-1 Alanyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Samsunspor at 34%, yet in-form Alanyaspor provide a compelling counter-argument — this Samsunspor vs Alanyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 37 sees Alanyaspor travel to Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu to take on Samsunspor. The game is scheduled for Saturday 18 May 2024, 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Samsunspor — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D D L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Samsunspor at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Samsunspor are significantly better at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Alanyaspor have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L W W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Alanyaspor have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Alanyaspor — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Samsunspor, 1 for Alanyaspor and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 25 Dec 2023, ended 1–3 with Alanyaspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Samsunspor in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Alanyaspor in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Samsunspor 53% versus Alanyaspor 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Samsunspor 42% | Alanyaspor 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Samsunspor 1.17 xG and Alanyaspor 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Samsunspor attack 0.927 / defence 0.823 | Alanyaspor attack 1.118 / defence 0.800. League average goals — home 1.579 / away 1.253. Data: 36 Samsunspor games / 72 Alanyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Samsunspor 34% | Draw 32% | Alanyaspor 33%. Fair-value odds: Samsunspor 2.94 | Draw 3.12 | Alanyaspor 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Samsunspor are the pick at 34% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Alanyaspor (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Samsunspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.32 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Samsunspor 30% | Alanyaspor 70%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Samsunspor vs Alanyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 18 May 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Samsunspor 34% | Draw 32% | Alanyaspor 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 49% | xG Samsunspor 1.17 / Alanyaspor 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Samsunspor attack 0.927 / def 0.823 | Alanyaspor attack 1.118 / def 0.800 | league avg home 1.579 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Samsunspor (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Samsunspor xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Alanyaspor xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Samsunspor vs Alanyaspor kick off?
Samsunspor vs Alanyaspor kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 18 May 2024 at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Samsunspor vs Alanyaspor?
Samsunspor 1 - 1 Alanyaspor.
Where is Samsunspor vs Alanyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu.
What competition is Samsunspor vs Alanyaspor part of?
Samsunspor vs Alanyaspor is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Samsunspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Samsunspor a 34% chance of winning, Alanyaspor a 33% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Samsunspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Samsunspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Samsunspor and Alanyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Samsunspor vs Alanyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Samsunspor and Alanyaspor?
Record (1 meetings): Samsunspor 0W | Draws 0 | Alanyaspor 1W.
What form are Samsunspor and Alanyaspor in?
Samsunspor (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-W-L. Alanyaspor (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Samsunspor's attack rating (0.93) and Alanyaspor's defence rating (0.80), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Alanyaspor's attack versus Samsunspor's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 1-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Samsunspor Win
34%
2.91
32%
3.11
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Samsunspor xG
Total xG
2.32
1.15
Alanyaspor xG
2.91
34%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
11%
9.22
10%
9.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 11.3 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.2 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.7 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Samsunspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Samsunspor and Alanyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Samsunspor and 1.15 for Alanyaspor, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Samsunspor vs Alanyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 36 outings, Samsunspor have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 11W 9D 16L record — D-D-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Alanyaspor's form line: 12W 14D 10L from 36 games, 1.39 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Samsunspor on 1.17 PPG, Alanyaspor on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Samsunspor have posted 1.89 PPG from 18 outings (10W 4D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.17 PPG overall — Samsunspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Alanyaspor have gone 5W 7D 6L from 18 away games — 1.22 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Samsunspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Samsunspor are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Alanyaspor are on 1.42 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 36 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Samsunspor
Current Season
Alanyaspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Samsunspor and Alanyaspor in coming into this match?
Samsunspor have gone 11W 9D 16L in their last 36 games (1.17 PPG), while Alanyaspor have gone 12W 14D 10L in their last 36 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Samsunspor at home or Alanyaspor away?
Samsunspor's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Samsunspor at home: 1.89 PPG; Alanyaspor away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Samsunspor and Alanyaspor runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 27 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Samsunspor's record when hosting Alanyaspor specifically: 0W 3D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Samsunspor
3
Draws
2
Alanyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Samsunspor and Alanyaspor?
From 6 meetings on record, Samsunspor have won 1, Alanyaspor have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Samsunspor and Alanyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2026, when Alanyaspor 2-3 Samsunspor.
Who has won more matches between Samsunspor and Alanyaspor?
Alanyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Samsunspor 50%, Alanyaspor 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Samsunspor) and 44% (Alanyaspor).
On the defensive side: Samsunspor keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Alanyaspor in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Samsunspor home games / Alanyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Samsunspor play Alanyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Samsunspor's recent matches and 50% of Alanyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Samsunspor vs Alanyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Samsunspor's recent games and 44% of Alanyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Samsunspor and Alanyaspor tend to score early?
Samsunspor have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Alanyaspor in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Samsunspor and Alanyaspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu, Regular Season - 37, as Samsunspor and Alanyaspor drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Samsunspor 1.17 xG and Alanyaspor 1.15 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Samsunspor attack 0.93 / defence 0.82 against Alanyaspor attack 1.12 / defence 0.80, drawn from 36/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Samsunspor 34% | Draw 32% | Alanyaspor 33%, with Samsunspor to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Samsunspor 42%, Alanyaspor 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Samsunspor's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Alanyaspor's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Samsunspor 1.17 PPG, Alanyaspor 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.