Rizespor 0-0 Konyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rizespor at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rizespor vs Konyaspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Konyaspor make the trip to Çaykur Didi Stadyumu to face Rizespor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Saturday 3 February 2024 at 10:30 UTC.
Form
Rizespor (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Rizespor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rizespor's home record at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Rizespor are significantly better at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Konyaspor have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: L D D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Konyaspor away from home this season: 0W 5D 5L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Rizespor's 1.70 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Konyaspor's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Rizespor, 1 for Konyaspor and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Sep 2023, ended 2–1 with Rizespor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Rizespor — key trading statistics (23 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Konyaspor — key trading statistics (23 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 82% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rizespor 44% versus Konyaspor 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rizespor 48% | Konyaspor 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rizespor 1.81 xG and Konyaspor 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rizespor attack 0.947 / defence 0.924 | Konyaspor attack 0.794 / defence 1.276. League average goals — home 1.496 / away 1.201. Konyaspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.276 — this is suppressing Rizespor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 Rizespor games / 59 Konyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rizespor 57% | Draw 27% | Konyaspor 16%. Fair-value odds: Rizespor 1.75 | Draw 3.70 | Konyaspor 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Rizespor (57%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rizespor are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Rizespor 30% | Konyaspor 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rizespor vs Konyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Çaykur Didi Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Feb 2024, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rizespor 57% | Draw 27% | Konyaspor 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 51% | xG Rizespor 1.81 / Konyaspor 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Rizespor attack 0.947 / def 0.924 | Konyaspor attack 0.794 / def 1.276 | league avg home 1.496 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Rizespor (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Rizespor xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Konyaspor xG
51%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rizespor vs Konyaspor kick off?
Rizespor vs Konyaspor kicked off at 10:30 on Saturday 3 February 2024 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Rizespor vs Konyaspor?
Rizespor 0 - 0 Konyaspor.
Where is Rizespor vs Konyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What competition is Rizespor vs Konyaspor part of?
Rizespor vs Konyaspor is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Rizespor vs Konyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Rizespor a 57% chance of winning, Konyaspor a 16% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Rizespor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rizespor vs Konyaspor?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Rizespor and Konyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Rizespor vs Konyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Konyaspor?
Record (3 meetings): Rizespor 2W | Draws 0 | Konyaspor 1W.
What form are Rizespor and Konyaspor in?
Rizespor (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Konyaspor (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Rizespor's attack at 0.95x the league average against Konyaspor's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 1.81 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Konyaspor's attack (0.79x) against Rizespor's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 23/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rizespor Win
57%
1.74
27%
3.77
16%
6.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Rizespor xG
Total xG
2.69
0.88
Konyaspor xG
1.74
57%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
6.22
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
16%
6.10
Win to Nil
24%
4.21
3%
37.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.3 | 10.8 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.7 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rizespor vs Konyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Rizespor and Konyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Rizespor and 0.88 for Konyaspor, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Rizespor vs Konyaspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Rizespor come into this having played 23 games, going 10W 5D 8L for 1.52 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-L. The sample for Rizespor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Konyaspor sit at 0.91 PPG from 23 outings (4W 9D 10L), a run that reads L-D-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Konyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rizespor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.61 PPG clear of Konyaspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Rizespor's home form reads 8W 2D 2L across 12 games on their own ground, a 2.17 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.52 PPG overall — Rizespor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Konyaspor have taken 0.75 points per game from 12 outings (1W 6D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rizespor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rizespor are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Konyaspor are on 1.00 scored and 1.61 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Konyaspor in 61%.
Last 23 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rizespor
Blended
Konyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rizespor and Konyaspor in coming into this match?
Rizespor have gone 10W 5D 8L in their last 23 games (1.52 PPG), while Konyaspor have gone 4W 9D 10L in their last 23 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rizespor at home or Konyaspor away?
Rizespor's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rizespor at home: 2.17 PPG; Konyaspor away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Rizespor or Konyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rizespor have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Konyaspor in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 1 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Konyaspor won 3-0 on 21 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rizespor have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Konyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Rizespor
3
Draws
2
Konyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Konyaspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Rizespor have won 3, Konyaspor have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Rizespor and Konyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2026, when Rizespor 3-2 Konyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Rizespor and Konyaspor?
Rizespor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rizespor see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Konyaspor see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rizespor 25%, Konyaspor 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Rizespor) and 50% (Konyaspor).
On the defensive side: Rizespor keep a clean sheet in 58% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rizespor home games / Konyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rizespor play Konyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Rizespor's recent matches and 67% of Konyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rizespor vs Konyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Rizespor's recent games and 50% of Konyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stalemate at Rizespor's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rizespor and Konyaspor finished level at 0-0 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Regular Season - 24, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rizespor 1.81 xG and Konyaspor 0.88 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Rizespor fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Konyaspor landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rizespor attack 0.95 / defence 0.92 against Konyaspor attack 0.79 / defence 1.28, drawn from 23/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rizespor 57% | Draw 27% | Konyaspor 16%, with Rizespor to win its most likely call at 57%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rizespor 48%, Konyaspor 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rizespor's trading profile (23 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Konyaspor's trading profile (23 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Rizespor arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 0.91. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Rizespor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward. Konyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.