Rizespor 1-2 Giresunspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Giresunspor at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rizespor vs Giresunspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 28 as Rizespor welcome Giresunspor to Çaykur Didi Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Saturday 5 March 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Rizespor have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Rizespor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Rizespor have posted 6W 1D 3L at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Rizespor are significantly better at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Giresunspor — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Giresunspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Giresunspor's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.70 PPG (Rizespor) versus 0.70 (Giresunspor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Rizespor, 1 for Giresunspor and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2021, ended 0–2 with Giresunspor winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Rizespor in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Giresunspor in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rizespor 44% versus Giresunspor 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rizespor 56% | Giresunspor 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rizespor 1.04 xG and Giresunspor 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rizespor attack 0.863 / defence 1.304 | Giresunspor attack 0.760 / defence 1.006. League average goals — home 1.195 / away 1.187. Data: 27 Rizespor games / 27 Giresunspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rizespor 32% | Draw 30% | Giresunspor 39%. Fair-value odds: Rizespor 3.12 | Draw 3.33 | Giresunspor 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Giresunspor as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Giresunspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.21 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Rizespor 50% | Giresunspor 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rizespor vs Giresunspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Çaykur Didi Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Mar 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rizespor 32% | Draw 30% | Giresunspor 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Rizespor 1.04 / Giresunspor 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Rizespor attack 0.863 / def 1.304 | Giresunspor attack 0.760 / def 1.006 | league avg home 1.195 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: Giresunspor (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Rizespor xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Giresunspor xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rizespor vs Giresunspor kick off?
Rizespor vs Giresunspor kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 5 March 2022 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Rizespor vs Giresunspor?
Rizespor 1 - 2 Giresunspor.
Where is Rizespor vs Giresunspor being played?
The match is being played at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What competition is Rizespor vs Giresunspor part of?
Rizespor vs Giresunspor is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Rizespor vs Giresunspor?
Our statistical model gives Rizespor a 32% chance of winning, Giresunspor a 39% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Giresunspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rizespor vs Giresunspor?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Rizespor and Giresunspor will score (BTTS).
Will Rizespor vs Giresunspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Giresunspor?
Record (1 meetings): Rizespor 0W | Draws 0 | Giresunspor 1W.
What form are Rizespor and Giresunspor in?
Rizespor (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Giresunspor (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Rizespor's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Giresunspor's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.04. The same calculation in reverse, Giresunspor's attack versus Rizespor's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 0-1 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Giresunspor Win
32%
3.15
30%
3.38
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Rizespor xG
Total xG
2.21
1.18
Giresunspor xG
3.15
32%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
35%
2.82
Win to Nil
10%
10.21
14%
7.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 12.8 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.3 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 6.9 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rizespor vs Giresunspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Rizespor and Giresunspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Rizespor and 1.18 for Giresunspor, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Rizespor vs Giresunspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 27 outings, Rizespor have picked up 0.85 PPG on a 6W 5D 16L record — D-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Rizespor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Giresunspor's form line: 8W 5D 14L from 27 games, 1.07 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-W. The sample for Giresunspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rizespor on 0.85 PPG, Giresunspor on 1.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Rizespor have posted 1.46 PPG from 13 outings (6W 1D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 0.85 PPG overall — Rizespor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Giresunspor have gone 3W 3D 7L from 13 away games — 0.92 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rizespor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Rizespor are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Giresunspor are on 1.00 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 27 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rizespor
Blended
Giresunspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rizespor and Giresunspor in coming into this match?
Rizespor have gone 6W 5D 16L in their last 27 games (0.85 PPG), while Giresunspor have gone 8W 5D 14L in their last 27 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rizespor at home or Giresunspor away?
Rizespor's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rizespor at home: 1.46 PPG; Giresunspor away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Rizespor
0
Draws
2
Giresunspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Giresunspor?
From 2 meetings on record, Rizespor have won 0, Giresunspor have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Rizespor and Giresunspor last play each other?
They last met on 5 March 2022, when Rizespor 1-2 Giresunspor.
Who has won more matches between Rizespor and Giresunspor?
Giresunspor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Giresunspor see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rizespor 54%, Giresunspor 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Rizespor) and 31% (Giresunspor).
On the defensive side: Giresunspor in 31%; Giresunspor in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rizespor home games / Giresunspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rizespor play Giresunspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Rizespor's recent matches and 38% of Giresunspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rizespor vs Giresunspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Rizespor's recent games and 31% of Giresunspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rizespor and Giresunspor tend to score early?
Rizespor have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Giresunspor in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Giresunspor edge out Rizespor 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Giresunspor beat Rizespor 1-2 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Regular Season - 28, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rizespor 1.04 xG and Giresunspor 1.18 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Giresunspor outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rizespor attack 0.86 / defence 1.30 against Giresunspor attack 0.76 / defence 1.01, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rizespor 32% | Draw 30% | Giresunspor 39%, with Giresunspor to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rizespor 56%, Giresunspor 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rizespor's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Giresunspor's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rizespor 0.85 PPG, Giresunspor 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Giresunspor win broke the near-deadlock. Giresunspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.85 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.