Rizespor 0-2 Bodrum FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rizespor at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rizespor vs Bodrum FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Çaykur Didi Stadyumu plays host to Rizespor versus Bodrum FK in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Sunday 16 March 2025 at 10:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Rizespor have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Rizespor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rizespor at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bodrum FK's overall Süper Lig record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D W W D W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Bodrum FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Bodrum FK have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Rizespor against 1.30 for Bodrum FK. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Rizespor lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Oct 2024, ended 1–0 with Rizespor winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Rizespor half-time and goal-timing data (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Bodrum FK half-time and goal-timing data (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rizespor 62% versus Bodrum FK 27%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rizespor 65% | Bodrum FK 27%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rizespor 1.72 xG and Bodrum FK 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rizespor attack 1.108 / defence 1.054 | Bodrum FK attack 0.609 / defence 0.950. League average goals — home 1.639 / away 1.184. Data: 64 Rizespor games / 26 Bodrum FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rizespor 60% | Draw 24% | Bodrum FK 16%. Fair-value odds: Rizespor 1.67 | Draw 4.17 | Bodrum FK 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Rizespor (60%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Rizespor as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Rizespor 70% | Bodrum FK 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rizespor vs Bodrum FK | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Çaykur Didi Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Mar 2025, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rizespor 60% | Draw 24% | Bodrum FK 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 44% | xG Rizespor 1.72 / Bodrum FK 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Rizespor attack 1.108 / def 1.054 | Bodrum FK attack 0.609 / def 0.950 | league avg home 1.639 / away 1.184 • Poisson stance: Rizespor (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Rizespor xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Bodrum FK xG
44%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rizespor vs Bodrum FK kick off?
Rizespor vs Bodrum FK kicked off at 10:30 on Sunday 16 March 2025 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Rizespor vs Bodrum FK?
Rizespor 0 - 2 Bodrum FK.
Where is Rizespor vs Bodrum FK being played?
The match is being played at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What competition is Rizespor vs Bodrum FK part of?
Rizespor vs Bodrum FK is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Rizespor vs Bodrum FK?
Our statistical model gives Rizespor a 60% chance of winning, Bodrum FK a 16% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Rizespor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rizespor vs Bodrum FK?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Rizespor and Bodrum FK will score (BTTS).
Will Rizespor vs Bodrum FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Bodrum FK?
Record (1 meetings): Rizespor 1W | Draws 0 | Bodrum FK 0W.
What form are Rizespor and Bodrum FK in?
Rizespor (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Bodrum FK (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Rizespor's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Bodrum FK's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.72. Flip it around — Bodrum FK's attack (0.61x) against Rizespor's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 0.76.
These ratings are built from 64/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-0 (12.4%), 1-1 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rizespor Win
60%
1.66
24%
4.25
16%
6.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.4%
Home win
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Rizespor xG
Total xG
2.48
0.76
Bodrum FK xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
6.21
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
47%
2.14
18%
5.61
Win to Nil
28%
3.54
3%
34.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.4 | 10.9 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.4 | 9.4 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.1 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rizespor vs Bodrum FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Rizespor and Bodrum FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Rizespor and 0.76 for Bodrum FK, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Rizespor vs Bodrum FK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 26 outings, Rizespor have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 10W 3D 13L record — L-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Rizespor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bodrum FK's form line: 7W 6D 13L from 26 games, 1.04 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-W. The sample for Bodrum FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for Rizespor against 1.04 for Bodrum FK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Rizespor have posted 1.50 PPG from 12 outings (5W 3D 4L).
On the road, Bodrum FK have gone 2W 3D 7L from 12 away games — 0.75 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rizespor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rizespor are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Bodrum FK are on 0.69 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rizespor have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Bodrum FK in 27%.
Defensively: Bodrum FK in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 26 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rizespor
Blended
Bodrum FK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rizespor and Bodrum FK in coming into this match?
Rizespor have gone 10W 3D 13L in their last 26 games (1.27 PPG), while Bodrum FK have gone 7W 6D 13L in their last 26 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rizespor at home or Bodrum FK away?
Rizespor's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rizespor at home: 1.50 PPG; Bodrum FK away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Rizespor or Bodrum FK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rizespor have kept a clean sheet in 8% of their recent games, Bodrum FK in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Rizespor
0
Draws
1
Bodrum FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Bodrum FK?
From 2 meetings on record, Rizespor have won 1, Bodrum FK have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Rizespor and Bodrum FK last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2025, when Rizespor 0-2 Bodrum FK.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Bodrum FK see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rizespor 67%, Bodrum FK 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Rizespor) and 33% (Bodrum FK).
On the defensive side: Bodrum FK in 42%; Bodrum FK in 58%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rizespor home games / Bodrum FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rizespor play Bodrum FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Rizespor's recent matches and 25% of Bodrum FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rizespor vs Bodrum FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Rizespor's recent games and 33% of Bodrum FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rizespor and Bodrum FK tend to score early?
Rizespor have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Bodrum FK in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bodrum FK cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Rizespor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodrum FK beat Rizespor 0-2 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Regular Season - 28, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rizespor 1.72 xG and Bodrum FK 0.76 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Rizespor fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Bodrum FK outscored their 0.76 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rizespor attack 1.11 / defence 1.05 against Bodrum FK attack 0.61 / defence 0.95, drawn from 64/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rizespor 60% | Draw 24% | Bodrum FK 16%, with Rizespor to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a Bodrum FK win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rizespor 65%, Bodrum FK 27%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rizespor's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bodrum FK's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rizespor 1.27 PPG, Bodrum FK 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bodrum FK win broke the near-deadlock. Rizespor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward. Bodrum FK (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.