Rizespor 1-1 Alanyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Rizespor take on Alanyaspor.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Alanyaspor travel to Çaykur Didi Stadyumu to take on Rizespor. The game is scheduled for Sunday 25 January 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Rizespor have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Rizespor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rizespor at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Alanyaspor stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Alanyaspor away from home this season: 2W 6D 2L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Rizespor) versus 1.10 (Alanyaspor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Rizespor, 3 for Alanyaspor and 2 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Aug 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Rizespor trading profile (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Alanyaspor trading profile (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rizespor 57% versus Alanyaspor 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rizespor 56% | Alanyaspor 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rizespor 1.24 xG and Alanyaspor 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rizespor attack 0.987 / defence 1.042 | Alanyaspor attack 0.866 / defence 0.972. League average goals — home 1.296 / away 1.294. Data: 54 Rizespor games / 54 Alanyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rizespor 34% | Draw 35% | Alanyaspor 30%. Fair-value odds: Rizespor 2.94 | Draw 2.86 | Alanyaspor 3.33. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 30% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.41 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.9 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Rizespor 40% | Alanyaspor 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rizespor vs Alanyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Çaykur Didi Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Jan 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rizespor 34% | Draw 35% | Alanyaspor 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 53% | xG Rizespor 1.24 / Alanyaspor 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Rizespor attack 0.987 / def 1.042 | Alanyaspor attack 0.866 / def 0.972 | league avg home 1.296 / away 1.294 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Rizespor xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Alanyaspor xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rizespor vs Alanyaspor kick off?
Rizespor vs Alanyaspor kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 25 January 2026 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Rizespor vs Alanyaspor?
Rizespor 1 - 1 Alanyaspor.
Where is Rizespor vs Alanyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What competition is Rizespor vs Alanyaspor part of?
Rizespor vs Alanyaspor is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Rizespor vs Alanyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Rizespor a 34% chance of winning, Alanyaspor a 30% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Rizespor vs Alanyaspor?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Rizespor and Alanyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Rizespor vs Alanyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Alanyaspor?
Record (7 meetings): Rizespor 2W | Draws 2 | Alanyaspor 3W.
What form are Rizespor and Alanyaspor in?
Rizespor (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. Alanyaspor (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Rizespor's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Alanyaspor's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.24. The same calculation in reverse, Alanyaspor's attack versus Rizespor's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.93
35%
2.83
30%
3.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Rizespor xG
Total xG
2.41
1.17
Alanyaspor xG
2.93
34%
Home win
2.83
35%
Draw
3.28
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
29%
3.47
Win to Nil
11%
9.41
9%
11.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 10.5 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.0 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.1 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rizespor vs Alanyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Rizespor and Alanyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Rizespor and 1.17 for Alanyaspor, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Rizespor vs Alanyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Rizespor come into this having played 54 games, going 19W 10D 25L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-L. The sample for Rizespor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Alanyaspor sit at 1.22 PPG from 54 outings (16W 18D 20L), a run that reads D-D-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Alanyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rizespor on 1.24 PPG, Alanyaspor on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Rizespor's home form reads 12W 5D 10L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.52 PPG return.
Away from home, Alanyaspor have taken 0.93 points per game from 27 outings (5W 10D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rizespor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Rizespor are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Alanyaspor are on 1.13 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rizespor
Blended
Alanyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rizespor and Alanyaspor in coming into this match?
Rizespor have gone 19W 10D 25L in their last 54 games (1.24 PPG), while Alanyaspor have gone 16W 18D 20L in their last 54 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rizespor at home or Alanyaspor away?
Rizespor's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rizespor at home: 1.52 PPG; Alanyaspor away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Rizespor and Alanyaspor runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Rizespor's record when hosting Alanyaspor specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Rizespor
3
Draws
3
Alanyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Alanyaspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Rizespor have won 2, Alanyaspor have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Rizespor and Alanyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Rizespor 1-1 Alanyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Rizespor and Alanyaspor?
Alanyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rizespor see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rizespor 52%, Alanyaspor 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Rizespor) and 44% (Alanyaspor).
On the defensive side: Rizespor have failed to score in 26% of games; Alanyaspor in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rizespor home games / Alanyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rizespor play Alanyaspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Rizespor's games and 59% of Alanyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rizespor vs Alanyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Rizespor's recent games and 44% of Alanyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rizespor and Alanyaspor tend to score early?
Rizespor have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Alanyaspor in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rizespor and Alanyaspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Regular Season - 19, as Rizespor and Alanyaspor drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rizespor 1.24 xG and Alanyaspor 1.17 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rizespor attack 0.99 / defence 1.04 against Alanyaspor attack 0.87 / defence 0.97, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rizespor 34% | Draw 35% | Alanyaspor 30%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rizespor 56%, Alanyaspor 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rizespor's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Alanyaspor's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rizespor 1.24 PPG, Alanyaspor 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.