Ümraniyespor 0-1 Giresunspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ümraniyespor at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ümraniyespor vs Giresunspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 37 sees Giresunspor travel to Ümraniye Hekimbaşı Şehir Stadyumu to take on Ümraniyespor. The game is scheduled for Saturday 3 June 2023, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ümraniyespor stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ümraniyespor have posted 2W 3D 5L at Ümraniye Hekimbaşı Şehir Stadyumu — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Giresunspor — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.80. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Giresunspor away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Ümraniyespor) versus 1.10 (Giresunspor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Ümraniyespor register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Giresunspor in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Ümraniyespor, 0 for Giresunspor and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 8 Jan 2023, ended 1–0 with Ümraniyespor winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Ümraniyespor trading profile (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Giresunspor trading profile (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ümraniyespor 68% and Giresunspor 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ümraniyespor 62% | Giresunspor 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ümraniyespor 1.70 xG and Giresunspor 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ümraniyespor attack 0.960 / defence 1.158 | Giresunspor attack 0.839 / defence 1.102. League average goals — home 1.605 / away 1.433. Data: 34 Ümraniyespor games / 72 Giresunspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ümraniyespor 45% | Draw 24% | Giresunspor 32%. Fair-value odds: Ümraniyespor 2.22 | Draw 4.17 | Giresunspor 3.12. Ümraniyespor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.70 / 1.39) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ümraniyespor as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ümraniyespor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.09 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Ümraniyespor 70% | Giresunspor 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ümraniyespor vs Giresunspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Ümraniye Hekimbaşı Şehir Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Jun 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ümraniyespor 45% | Draw 24% | Giresunspor 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 61% | xG Ümraniyespor 1.70 / Giresunspor 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Ümraniyespor attack 0.960 / def 1.158 | Giresunspor attack 0.839 / def 1.102 | league avg home 1.605 / away 1.433 • Poisson stance: Ümraniyespor (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Ümraniyespor xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Giresunspor xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ümraniyespor vs Giresunspor kick off?
Ümraniyespor vs Giresunspor kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 3 June 2023 at Ümraniye Hekimbaşı Şehir Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Ümraniyespor vs Giresunspor?
Ümraniyespor 0 - 1 Giresunspor.
Where is Ümraniyespor vs Giresunspor being played?
The match is being played at Ümraniye Hekimbaşı Şehir Stadyumu.
What competition is Ümraniyespor vs Giresunspor part of?
Ümraniyespor vs Giresunspor is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Ümraniyespor vs Giresunspor?
Our statistical model gives Ümraniyespor a 45% chance of winning, Giresunspor a 32% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Ümraniyespor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ümraniyespor vs Giresunspor?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Ümraniyespor and Giresunspor will score (BTTS).
Will Ümraniyespor vs Giresunspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ümraniyespor and Giresunspor?
Record (1 meetings): Ümraniyespor 1W | Draws 0 | Giresunspor 0W.
What form are Ümraniyespor and Giresunspor in?
Ümraniyespor (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-D-L-W. Giresunspor (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Ümraniyespor's attack at 0.96x the league average against Giresunspor's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.70 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Giresunspor's attack versus Ümraniyespor's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ümraniyespor Win
45%
2.23
24%
4.24
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Ümraniyespor xG
Total xG
3.09
1.39
Giresunspor xG
2.23
45%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
25%
4.02
18%
5.46
Win to Nil
11%
8.97
6%
17.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 6.3 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 10.8 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.1 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.2 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ümraniyespor vs Giresunspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Ümraniyespor and Giresunspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Ümraniyespor and 1.39 for Giresunspor, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Ümraniyespor vs Giresunspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ümraniyespor come into this having played 34 games, going 7W 9D 18L for 0.88 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-W.
On the other side, Giresunspor sit at 1.00 PPG from 34 outings (8W 10D 16L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ümraniyespor on 0.88 PPG, Giresunspor on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Ümraniyespor's home form reads 3W 4D 10L across 17 games on their own ground, a 0.76 PPG return.
Away from home, Giresunspor have taken 0.88 points per game from 17 outings (3W 6D 8L).
The Goals Picture
Ümraniyespor are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Giresunspor are on 1.15 scored and 1.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ümraniyespor have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 34 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ümraniyespor
Current Season
Giresunspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ümraniyespor and Giresunspor in coming into this match?
Ümraniyespor have gone 7W 9D 18L in their last 34 games (0.88 PPG), while Giresunspor have gone 8W 10D 16L in their last 34 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ümraniyespor at home or Giresunspor away?
Giresunspor's away record (0.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ümraniyespor at home: 0.76 PPG; Giresunspor away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ümraniyespor and Giresunspor runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 June 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Ümraniyespor
0
Draws
1
Giresunspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ümraniyespor and Giresunspor?
From 2 meetings on record, Ümraniyespor have won 1, Giresunspor have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ümraniyespor and Giresunspor last play each other?
They last met on 3 June 2023, when Ümraniyespor 0-1 Giresunspor.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ümraniyespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Giresunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ümraniyespor 65%, Giresunspor 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Ümraniyespor and 59% for Giresunspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ümraniyespor have failed to score in 29% of games; Giresunspor in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ümraniyespor home games / Giresunspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ümraniyespor play Giresunspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Ümraniyespor's games and 59% of Giresunspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ümraniyespor vs Giresunspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Ümraniyespor's matches and 59% of Giresunspor's.
Do Ümraniyespor and Giresunspor tend to score early?
Ümraniyespor have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Giresunspor in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Giresunspor defy the odds to beat Ümraniyespor 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Giresunspor beat Ümraniyespor 0-1 at Ümraniye Hekimbaşı Şehir Stadyumu, Regular Season - 37, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ümraniyespor 1.70 xG and Giresunspor 1.39 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Ümraniyespor fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ümraniyespor attack 0.96 / defence 1.16 against Giresunspor attack 0.84 / defence 1.10, drawn from 34/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ümraniyespor 45% | Draw 24% | Giresunspor 32%, with Ümraniyespor to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Giresunspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ümraniyespor 62%, Giresunspor 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ümraniyespor's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Giresunspor's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ümraniyespor 0.88 PPG, Giresunspor 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Giresunspor win broke the near-deadlock. Ümraniyespor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward. Giresunspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.