Konyaspor 2-0 Galatasaray – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Galatasaray (57%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Konyaspor face Galatasaray.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium plays host to Konyaspor versus Galatasaray in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Saturday 21 February 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Konyaspor have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 0W 6D 4L. Last five: D D L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Konyaspor have posted 1W 5D 4L at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Galatasaray (all games): 8W 2D 0L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 2.60 points per game. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Galatasaray, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Galatasaray have posted 8W 1D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
On a straight form reading, Galatasaray are the stronger side — 2.00 PPG clear of the hosts (2.60 vs 0.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Galatasaray, who have claimed 7 wins from 9 meetings compared to 2 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Sep 2025, ended 1–3 with Galatasaray winning.
It is worth noting that Galatasaray have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 7 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
Konyaspor half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Galatasaray half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 66% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Konyaspor 66% and Galatasaray 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 52% | Galatasaray 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 0.78 xG and Galatasaray 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.795 / defence 0.942 | Galatasaray attack 1.397 / defence 0.707. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.317. Konyaspor's attack strength of 0.795 is below the league average — the 0.78 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Galatasaray's defence strength of 0.707 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Galatasaray have an above-average attack strength of 1.397 — the away xG of 1.73 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 58 Konyaspor games / 58 Galatasaray games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 13% | Draw 30% | Galatasaray 57%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 7.69 | Draw 3.33 | Galatasaray 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Galatasaray (57%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Galatasaray at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 30% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.51 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Konyaspor 70% | Galatasaray 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs Galatasaray | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Feb 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 13% | Draw 30% | Galatasaray 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 48% | xG Konyaspor 0.78 / Galatasaray 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 0.795 / def 0.942 | Galatasaray attack 1.397 / def 0.707 | league avg home 1.380 / away 1.317 • Poisson stance: Galatasaray (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.73
Galatasaray xG
48%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Konyaspor vs Galatasaray kick off?
Konyaspor vs Galatasaray kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 21 February 2026 at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium.
What was the final score in Konyaspor vs Galatasaray?
Konyaspor 2 - 0 Galatasaray.
Where is Konyaspor vs Galatasaray being played?
The match is being played at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium.
What competition is Konyaspor vs Galatasaray part of?
Konyaspor vs Galatasaray is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs Galatasaray?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 13% chance of winning, Galatasaray a 57% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Galatasaray the favourite.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs Galatasaray?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Konyaspor and Galatasaray will score (BTTS).
Will Konyaspor vs Galatasaray have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Galatasaray?
Record (9 meetings): Konyaspor 2W | Draws 0 | Galatasaray 7W.
What form are Konyaspor and Galatasaray in?
Konyaspor (all comps): 0W-6D-4L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-L-D-L. Galatasaray (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Konyaspor's attack rating (0.80) and Galatasaray's defence rating (0.71), the model arrives at 0.78 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Galatasaray's attack (1.40x) against Konyaspor's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.73.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.4%), 0-2 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Galatasaray Win
13%
7.61
30%
3.34
57%
1.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.2%
Away win
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
2.51
1.73
Galatasaray xG
7.61
13%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
1.76
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
18%
5.66
46%
2.17
Win to Nil
2%
43.06
26%
3.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 14.1 | 12.2 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 10.9 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Galatasaray?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Galatasaray expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Konyaspor and 1.73 for Galatasaray, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Galatasaray?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 58 outings, Konyaspor have picked up 1.14 PPG on a 17W 15D 26L record — D-D-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Konyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Galatasaray's form line: 47W 9D 2L from 58 games, 2.59 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-W. The sample for Galatasaray is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Galatasaray are the form team by 1.45 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Konyaspor.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Konyaspor have posted 1.54 PPG from 28 outings (11W 10D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.14 PPG overall — Konyaspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Galatasaray have gone 23W 3D 2L from 28 away games — 2.57 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Galatasaray come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Konyaspor are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Galatasaray are on 2.48 scored and 0.79 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Konyaspor have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Defensively: Galatasaray in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Blended
Galatasaray
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Konyaspor and Galatasaray in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 17W 15D 26L in their last 58 games (1.14 PPG), while Galatasaray have gone 47W 9D 2L in their last 58 (2.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Konyaspor at home or Galatasaray away?
Galatasaray's away record (2.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Konyaspor at home: 1.54 PPG; Galatasaray away: 2.57 PPG.
Have Konyaspor or Galatasaray been keeping clean sheets recently?
Konyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Galatasaray in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Galatasaray won 3-0 on 7 Jan 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Konyaspor have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Galatasaray — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Konyaspor
0
Draws
7
Galatasaray
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Galatasaray?
From 10 meetings on record, Konyaspor have won 3, Galatasaray have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Konyaspor and Galatasaray last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Konyaspor 2-0 Galatasaray.
Who has won more matches between Konyaspor and Galatasaray?
Galatasaray have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Galatasaray are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Konyaspor 61%, Galatasaray 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Konyaspor) and 64% (Galatasaray). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Konyaspor keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Galatasaray in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / Galatasaray away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Konyaspor play Galatasaray?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Konyaspor's games and 57% of Galatasaray's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Konyaspor vs Galatasaray usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of Konyaspor's matches and 64% of Galatasaray's.
Do Konyaspor and Galatasaray tend to score early?
Konyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Galatasaray in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Konyaspor cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Galatasaray.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Konyaspor beat Galatasaray 2-0 at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 0.78 xG and Galatasaray 1.73 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Konyaspor beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Galatasaray landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 0.80 / defence 0.94 against Galatasaray attack 1.40 / defence 0.71, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 13% | Draw 30% | Galatasaray 57%, with Galatasaray to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Konyaspor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 13% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 52%, Galatasaray 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Konyaspor's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Galatasaray's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Galatasaray arrived the stronger side — 2.59 PPG against 1.14. Form was overturned, with Konyaspor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Konyaspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Galatasaray (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.43 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.