Kasımpaşa 1-1 Ümraniyespor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kasımpaşa at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kasımpaşa vs Ümraniyespor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 26 as Kasımpaşa welcome Ümraniyespor to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Saturday 18 March 2023 at 10:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Kasımpaşa have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kasımpaşa's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ümraniyespor stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ümraniyespor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Ümraniyespor have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Kasımpaşa 1.00 PPG, Ümraniyespor 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Kasımpaşa, 0 for Ümraniyespor and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2022, ended 2–1 with Kasımpaşa winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Kasımpaşa in-play and half-time data (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Ümraniyespor in-play and half-time data (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Kasımpaşa 58% and Ümraniyespor 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kasımpaşa 58% | Ümraniyespor 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 2.23 xG and Ümraniyespor 1.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 1.207 / defence 1.228 | Ümraniyespor attack 1.148 / defence 1.113. League average goals — home 1.663 / away 1.274. Data: 62 Kasımpaşa games / 24 Ümraniyespor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 48% | Draw 20% | Ümraniyespor 32%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 2.08 | Draw 5.00 | Ümraniyespor 3.12. Kasımpaşa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (20%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS probability 74% | Total xG 4.03. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.03 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% reflects that both xG figures (2.23 / 1.80) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Kasımpaşa are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 4.03 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 77% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 74% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Kasımpaşa 80% | Ümraniyespor 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kasımpaşa vs Ümraniyespor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Mar 2023, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 48% | Draw 20% | Ümraniyespor 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 77% | BTTS 74% | xG Kasımpaşa 2.23 / Ümraniyespor 1.80 • Poisson strength factors: Kasımpaşa attack 1.207 / def 1.228 | Ümraniyespor attack 1.148 / def 1.113 | league avg home 1.663 / away 1.274 • Poisson stance: Kasımpaşa (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.23
Kasımpaşa xG
Expected Goals
1.80
Ümraniyespor xG
74%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kasımpaşa vs Ümraniyespor kick off?
Kasımpaşa vs Ümraniyespor kicked off at 10:30 on Saturday 18 March 2023 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kasımpaşa vs Ümraniyespor?
Kasımpaşa 1 - 1 Ümraniyespor.
Where is Kasımpaşa vs Ümraniyespor being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Kasımpaşa vs Ümraniyespor part of?
Kasımpaşa vs Ümraniyespor is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kasımpaşa vs Ümraniyespor?
Our statistical model gives Kasımpaşa a 48% chance of winning, Ümraniyespor a 32% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Kasımpaşa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kasımpaşa vs Ümraniyespor?
Our model estimates a 74% probability that both Kasımpaşa and Ümraniyespor will score (BTTS).
Will Kasımpaşa vs Ümraniyespor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 77%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Ümraniyespor?
Record (1 meetings): Kasımpaşa 1W | Draws 0 | Ümraniyespor 0W.
What form are Kasımpaşa and Ümraniyespor in?
Kasımpaşa (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Ümraniyespor (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Kasımpaşa's attacking strength (1.21x league average) is weighed against Ümraniyespor's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.23. The same calculation in reverse, Ümraniyespor's attack versus Kasımpaşa's defence, projects 1.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 8.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.0%), 2-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Kasımpaşa Win
48%
2.07
20%
4.95
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 2
7.2%
Draw
1 – 1
7.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.23
Kasımpaşa xG
Total xG
4.03
1.80
Ümraniyespor xG
2.07
48%
Home win
4.95
20%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
77%
Over 2.5
1.30
23%
Under 2.5
4.35
57%
Over 3.5
1.75
43%
Under 3.5
2.33
38%
Over 4.5
2.63
62%
Under 4.5
1.61
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
74%
BTTS Yes
1.34
26%
BTTS No
3.92
Clean Sheet
17%
6.03
11%
9.35
Win to Nil
8%
12.48
3%
29.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 4.0 | 7.1 | 6.4 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 8.0 | 7.2 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 5.9 | 5.3 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kasımpaşa vs Ümraniyespor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.1%.
How many goals are Kasımpaşa and Ümraniyespor expected to score?
The model projects 2.23 expected goals for Kasımpaşa and 1.80 for Ümraniyespor, a combined total of 4.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Kasımpaşa vs Ümraniyespor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Kasımpaşa come into this having played 24 games, going 7W 4D 13L for 1.04 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-L. The sample for Kasımpaşa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ümraniyespor sit at 0.88 PPG from 24 outings (5W 6D 13L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Ümraniyespor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kasımpaşa on 1.04 PPG, Ümraniyespor on 0.88. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Kasımpaşa's home form reads 4W 2D 5L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.27 PPG return.
Away from home, Ümraniyespor have taken 1.09 points per game from 11 outings (3W 3D 5L).
The Goals Picture
Kasımpaşa are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Ümraniyespor are on 1.33 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ümraniyespor in 67%.
Last 24 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kasımpaşa
Blended
Ümraniyespor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kasımpaşa and Ümraniyespor in coming into this match?
Kasımpaşa have gone 7W 4D 13L in their last 24 games (1.04 PPG), while Ümraniyespor have gone 5W 6D 13L in their last 24 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kasımpaşa at home or Ümraniyespor away?
Kasımpaşa's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kasımpaşa at home: 1.27 PPG; Ümraniyespor away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Kasımpaşa and Ümraniyespor runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Kasımpaşa
1
Draws
0
Ümraniyespor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Ümraniyespor?
From 2 meetings on record, Kasımpaşa have won 1, Ümraniyespor have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Kasımpaşa and Ümraniyespor last play each other?
They last met on 18 March 2023, when Kasımpaşa 1-1 Ümraniyespor.
Who has won more matches between Kasımpaşa and Ümraniyespor?
Kasımpaşa have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Ümraniyespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Kasımpaşa at 82%, Ümraniyespor at 73%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Kasımpaşa and 64% for Ümraniyespor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 64% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kasımpaşa home games / Ümraniyespor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kasımpaşa play Ümraniyespor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 82% of Kasımpaşa's games and 73% of Ümraniyespor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kasımpaşa vs Ümraniyespor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Kasımpaşa's matches and 64% of Ümraniyespor's.
Do Kasımpaşa and Ümraniyespor tend to score early?
Kasımpaşa have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Ümraniyespor in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kasımpaşa and Ümraniyespor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kasımpaşa and Ümraniyespor finished level at 1-1 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 26, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 2.23 xG and Ümraniyespor 1.80 xG, a combined 4.03. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Kasımpaşa fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 1.21 / defence 1.23 against Ümraniyespor attack 1.15 / defence 1.11, drawn from 62/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 48% | Draw 20% | Ümraniyespor 32%, with Kasımpaşa to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 57% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 58%, Ümraniyespor 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Ümraniyespor's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kasımpaşa 1.04 PPG, Ümraniyespor 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.91 scoring average — below par going forward. Ümraniyespor (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.91 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.