Kasımpaşa 3-1 Kayserispor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kasımpaşa at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kasımpaşa vs Kayserispor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Kasımpaşa host Kayserispor at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 23 January 2022 at 10:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kasımpaşa stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kasımpaşa's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Kayserispor — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Kayserispor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Kayserispor have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Kasımpaşa at 1.50 PPG versus Kayserispor's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Kasımpaşa have won 0, Kayserispor 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2021, ended 0–2 with Kayserispor winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Kasımpaşa in-play tendencies (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Kayserispor in-play tendencies (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kasımpaşa 59% versus Kayserispor 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kasımpaşa 46% | Kayserispor 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 1.80 xG and Kayserispor 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 1.018 / defence 1.331 | Kayserispor attack 0.918 / defence 1.503. League average goals — home 1.180 / away 1.099. Kayserispor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.503 — this is suppressing Kasımpaşa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Kasımpaşa games / 22 Kayserispor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 48% | Draw 24% | Kayserispor 28%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 2.08 | Draw 4.17 | Kayserispor 3.57. Kasımpaşa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.80 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Kasımpaşa as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kasımpaşa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.15 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Kasımpaşa 70% | Kayserispor 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kasımpaşa vs Kayserispor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Jan 2022, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 48% | Draw 24% | Kayserispor 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 62% | xG Kasımpaşa 1.80 / Kayserispor 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Kasımpaşa attack 1.018 / def 1.331 | Kayserispor attack 0.918 / def 1.503 | league avg home 1.180 / away 1.099 • Poisson stance: Kasımpaşa (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Kasımpaşa xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Kayserispor xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kasımpaşa vs Kayserispor kick off?
Kasımpaşa vs Kayserispor kicked off at 10:30 on Sunday 23 January 2022 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kasımpaşa vs Kayserispor?
Kasımpaşa 3 - 1 Kayserispor.
Where is Kasımpaşa vs Kayserispor being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Kasımpaşa vs Kayserispor part of?
Kasımpaşa vs Kayserispor is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kasımpaşa vs Kayserispor?
Our statistical model gives Kasımpaşa a 48% chance of winning, Kayserispor a 28% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Kasımpaşa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kasımpaşa vs Kayserispor?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Kasımpaşa and Kayserispor will score (BTTS).
Will Kasımpaşa vs Kayserispor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Kayserispor?
Record (1 meetings): Kasımpaşa 0W | Draws 0 | Kayserispor 1W.
What form are Kasımpaşa and Kayserispor in?
Kasımpaşa (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Kayserispor (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Kasımpaşa's attack at 1.02x the league average against Kayserispor's defence at 1.50x — combine the two and it projects 1.80 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kayserispor's attack versus Kasımpaşa's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Kasımpaşa Win
48%
2.09
24%
4.16
28%
3.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Kasımpaşa xG
Total xG
3.15
1.34
Kayserispor xG
2.09
48%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
3.55
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
26%
3.83
16%
6.08
Win to Nil
12%
8.02
5%
21.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.8 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 10.4 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.4 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.7 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kasımpaşa vs Kayserispor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Kasımpaşa and Kayserispor expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Kasımpaşa and 1.34 for Kayserispor, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Kasımpaşa vs Kayserispor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Kasımpaşa come into this having played 22 games, going 6W 6D 10L for 1.09 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-W. The sample for Kasımpaşa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Kayserispor sit at 1.41 PPG from 22 outings (8W 7D 7L), a run that reads D-W-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Kayserispor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kasımpaşa on 1.09 PPG, Kayserispor on 1.41. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Kasımpaşa's home form reads 4W 3D 4L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.36 PPG return.
Away from home, Kayserispor have taken 0.64 points per game from 11 outings (1W 4D 6L). That's a step down from their 1.41 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Kayserispor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kasımpaşa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Kasımpaşa are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Kayserispor are on 1.36 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Defensively: Kayserispor in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kasımpaşa
Blended
Kayserispor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kasımpaşa and Kayserispor in coming into this match?
Kasımpaşa have gone 6W 6D 10L in their last 22 games (1.09 PPG), while Kayserispor have gone 8W 7D 7L in their last 22 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kasımpaşa at home or Kayserispor away?
Kasımpaşa's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kasımpaşa at home: 1.36 PPG; Kayserispor away: 0.64 PPG.
Have Kasımpaşa or Kayserispor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kasımpaşa have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Kayserispor in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Kasımpaşa and Kayserispor runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Kasımpaşa's record when hosting Kayserispor specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Kasımpaşa
1
Draws
6
Kayserispor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Kayserispor?
From 10 meetings on record, Kasımpaşa have won 3, Kayserispor have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Kasımpaşa and Kayserispor last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Kasımpaşa 2-0 Kayserispor.
Who has won more matches between Kasımpaşa and Kayserispor?
Kayserispor have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Kayserispor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kasımpaşa 64%, Kayserispor 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Kasımpaşa) and 54% (Kayserispor).
On the defensive side: Kayserispor in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kasımpaşa home games / Kayserispor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kasımpaşa play Kayserispor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Kasımpaşa's games and 64% of Kayserispor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kasımpaşa vs Kayserispor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Kasımpaşa's recent games and 54% of Kayserispor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kasımpaşa and Kayserispor tend to score early?
Kasımpaşa have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Kayserispor in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kasımpaşa cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Kayserispor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kasımpaşa beat Kayserispor 3-1 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 23, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 1.80 xG and Kayserispor 1.34 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Kasımpaşa beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 1.02 / defence 1.33 against Kayserispor attack 0.92 / defence 1.50, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 48% | Draw 24% | Kayserispor 28%, with Kasımpaşa to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 46%, Kayserispor 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Kayserispor's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kasımpaşa 1.09 PPG, Kayserispor 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kasımpaşa win broke the near-deadlock. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.55 average — above their attacking norm. Kayserispor (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.