Kasımpaşa 1-4 Adana Demirspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Adana Demirspor at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kasımpaşa vs Adana Demirspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 10 as Kasımpaşa welcome Adana Demirspor to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Saturday 15 October 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Kasımpaşa — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W L W W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Kasımpaşa have gone 5W 0D 5L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Adana Demirspor stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Adana Demirspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Adana Demirspor's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Adana Demirspor's 2.10 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Kasımpaşa's 1.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Kasımpaşa, 0 for Adana Demirspor and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Apr 2022, ended 4–0 with Kasımpaşa winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Kasımpaşa in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Adana Demirspor in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kasımpaşa 57% versus Adana Demirspor 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kasımpaşa 60% | Adana Demirspor 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 1.38 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 0.997 / defence 1.279 | Adana Demirspor attack 1.179 / defence 1.003. League average goals — home 1.378 / away 1.266. Data: 47 Kasımpaşa games / 47 Adana Demirspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 28% | Draw 23% | Adana Demirspor 50%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 3.57 | Draw 4.35 | Adana Demirspor 2.00. Adana Demirspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.38 / 1.91) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Adana Demirspor at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Adana Demirspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.29 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Kasımpaşa 60% | Adana Demirspor 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kasımpaşa vs Adana Demirspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Oct 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 28% | Draw 23% | Adana Demirspor 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 64% | xG Kasımpaşa 1.38 / Adana Demirspor 1.91 • Poisson strength factors: Kasımpaşa attack 0.997 / def 1.279 | Adana Demirspor attack 1.179 / def 1.003 | league avg home 1.378 / away 1.266 • Poisson stance: Adana Demirspor (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Kasımpaşa xG
Expected Goals
1.91
Adana Demirspor xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kasımpaşa vs Adana Demirspor kick off?
Kasımpaşa vs Adana Demirspor kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 15 October 2022 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kasımpaşa vs Adana Demirspor?
Kasımpaşa 1 - 4 Adana Demirspor.
Where is Kasımpaşa vs Adana Demirspor being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Kasımpaşa vs Adana Demirspor part of?
Kasımpaşa vs Adana Demirspor is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kasımpaşa vs Adana Demirspor?
Our statistical model gives Kasımpaşa a 28% chance of winning, Adana Demirspor a 50% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Adana Demirspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kasımpaşa vs Adana Demirspor?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Kasımpaşa and Adana Demirspor will score (BTTS).
Will Kasımpaşa vs Adana Demirspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Adana Demirspor?
Record (2 meetings): Kasımpaşa 1W | Draws 1 | Adana Demirspor 0W.
What form are Kasımpaşa and Adana Demirspor in?
Kasımpaşa (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Adana Demirspor (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Kasımpaşa's attack rating (1.00) and Adana Demirspor's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Adana Demirspor's attack versus Kasımpaşa's defence, projects 1.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Adana Demirspor Win
28%
3.62
23%
4.41
50%
2.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
7.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Kasımpaşa xG
Total xG
3.29
1.91
Adana Demirspor xG
3.62
28%
Home win
4.41
23%
Draw
2.01
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.77
Clean Sheet
15%
6.74
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
4%
24.43
13%
7.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 7.1 | 6.8 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 9.8 | 9.4 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.8 | 6.5 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kasımpaşa vs Adana Demirspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Kasımpaşa and Adana Demirspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Kasımpaşa and 1.91 for Adana Demirspor, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Kasımpaşa vs Adana Demirspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kasımpaşa come into this having played 47 games, going 19W 9D 19L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-D. The sample for Kasımpaşa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Adana Demirspor sit at 1.55 PPG from 47 outings (20W 13D 14L), a run that reads D-W-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Adana Demirspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kasımpaşa on 1.40 PPG, Adana Demirspor on 1.55. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Kasımpaşa's home form reads 10W 4D 9L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, Adana Demirspor have taken 1.30 points per game from 23 outings (8W 6D 9L).
Goals in Recent Form
Kasımpaşa are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Adana Demirspor are on 1.64 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kasımpaşa
Blended
Adana Demirspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kasımpaşa and Adana Demirspor in coming into this match?
Kasımpaşa have gone 19W 9D 19L in their last 47 games (1.40 PPG), while Adana Demirspor have gone 20W 13D 14L in their last 47 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kasımpaşa at home or Adana Demirspor away?
Kasımpaşa's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kasımpaşa at home: 1.48 PPG; Adana Demirspor away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Apr 2023, when Adana Demirspor won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kasımpaşa's record when hosting Adana Demirspor specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Kasımpaşa
2
Draws
2
Adana Demirspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Adana Demirspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Kasımpaşa have won 4, Adana Demirspor have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kasımpaşa and Adana Demirspor last play each other?
They last met on 2 February 2025, when Adana Demirspor 3-5 Kasımpaşa.
Who has won more matches between Kasımpaşa and Adana Demirspor?
Kasımpaşa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Adana Demirspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kasımpaşa 65%, Adana Demirspor 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Kasımpaşa and 61% for Adana Demirspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Adana Demirspor in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kasımpaşa home games / Adana Demirspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kasımpaşa play Adana Demirspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Kasımpaşa's games and 61% of Adana Demirspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kasımpaşa vs Adana Demirspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Kasımpaşa's matches and 61% of Adana Demirspor's.
Do Kasımpaşa and Adana Demirspor tend to score early?
Kasımpaşa have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Adana Demirspor in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Adana Demirspor run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Kasımpaşa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Adana Demirspor beat Kasımpaşa 1-4 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 10, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 1.38 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.91 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Adana Demirspor outscored their 1.91 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 1.00 / defence 1.28 against Adana Demirspor attack 1.18 / defence 1.00, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 28% | Draw 23% | Adana Demirspor 50%, with Adana Demirspor to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 60%, Adana Demirspor 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kasımpaşa 1.40 PPG, Adana Demirspor 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Adana Demirspor win broke the near-deadlock. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Adana Demirspor (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.48 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.