Kasımpaşa 2-1 Adana Demirspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Adana Demirspor at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kasımpaşa vs Adana Demirspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 6 as Kasımpaşa welcome Adana Demirspor to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Sunday 24 September 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Kasımpaşa — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W D D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Kasımpaşa have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Kasımpaşa have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Adana Demirspor stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Adana Demirspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Adana Demirspor's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Adana Demirspor's 2.00 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Kasımpaşa's 1.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Kasımpaşa, 2 for Adana Demirspor and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 15 Apr 2023, ended 0–5 with Adana Demirspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Kasımpaşa in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Adana Demirspor in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Kasımpaşa 58% and Adana Demirspor 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kasımpaşa 58% | Adana Demirspor 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 1.71 xG and Adana Demirspor 2.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 1.063 / defence 1.396 | Adana Demirspor attack 1.172 / defence 1.158. League average goals — home 1.392 / away 1.321. Data: 41 Kasımpaşa games / 40 Adana Demirspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 29% | Draw 25% | Adana Demirspor 46%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 3.45 | Draw 4.00 | Adana Demirspor 2.17. Adana Demirspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 75% | Total xG 3.88. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.88 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 75% reflects that both xG figures (1.71 / 2.16) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Adana Demirspor at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Adana Demirspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.88 combined xG gives a 74% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 75% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Kasımpaşa 80% | Adana Demirspor 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kasımpaşa vs Adana Demirspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Sep 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 29% | Draw 25% | Adana Demirspor 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 75% | xG Kasımpaşa 1.71 / Adana Demirspor 2.16 • Poisson strength factors: Kasımpaşa attack 1.063 / def 1.396 | Adana Demirspor attack 1.172 / def 1.158 | league avg home 1.392 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: Adana Demirspor (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Kasımpaşa xG
Expected Goals
2.16
Adana Demirspor xG
75%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kasımpaşa vs Adana Demirspor kick off?
Kasımpaşa vs Adana Demirspor kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 24 September 2023 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kasımpaşa vs Adana Demirspor?
Kasımpaşa 2 - 1 Adana Demirspor.
Where is Kasımpaşa vs Adana Demirspor being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Kasımpaşa vs Adana Demirspor part of?
Kasımpaşa vs Adana Demirspor is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kasımpaşa vs Adana Demirspor?
Our statistical model gives Kasımpaşa a 29% chance of winning, Adana Demirspor a 46% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Adana Demirspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kasımpaşa vs Adana Demirspor?
Our model estimates a 75% probability that both Kasımpaşa and Adana Demirspor will score (BTTS).
Will Kasımpaşa vs Adana Demirspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Adana Demirspor?
Record (4 meetings): Kasımpaşa 1W | Draws 1 | Adana Demirspor 2W.
What form are Kasımpaşa and Adana Demirspor in?
Kasımpaşa (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-D-D-L-D. Adana Demirspor (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Kasımpaşa's attack rating (1.06) and Adana Demirspor's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.71 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Adana Demirspor's attack versus Kasımpaşa's defence, projects 2.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.3%), 2-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Adana Demirspor Win
29%
3.49
25%
3.97
46%
2.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.7%
Draw
2 – 2
7.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Kasımpaşa xG
Total xG
3.88
2.16
Adana Demirspor xG
3.49
29%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
2.17
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
35%
Over 4.5
2.86
65%
Under 4.5
1.54
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
75%
BTTS Yes
1.34
25%
BTTS No
3.98
Clean Sheet
12%
8.69
18%
5.55
Win to Nil
3%
30.29
8%
12.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 4.5 | 4.9 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 3.6 | 7.7 | 8.3 | 6.0 | 3.2 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 6.6 | 7.1 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kasımpaşa vs Adana Demirspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.7%.
How many goals are Kasımpaşa and Adana Demirspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Kasımpaşa and 2.16 for Adana Demirspor, a combined total of 3.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Kasımpaşa vs Adana Demirspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kasımpaşa come into this having played 40 games, going 13W 10D 17L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-L-D. It's still early in the season for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Adana Demirspor sit at 1.92 PPG from 40 outings (22W 11D 7L), a run that reads W-W-D-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Adana Demirspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Adana Demirspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.69 PPG clear of Kasımpaşa — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Kasımpaşa's home form reads 8W 4D 8L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Adana Demirspor have taken 1.55 points per game from 20 outings (8W 7D 5L).
Goals in Recent Form
Kasımpaşa are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Adana Demirspor are on 2.12 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Adana Demirspor in 65%.
Last 40 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kasımpaşa
Early Season
Adana Demirspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kasımpaşa and Adana Demirspor in coming into this match?
Kasımpaşa have gone 13W 10D 17L in their last 40 games (1.23 PPG), while Adana Demirspor have gone 22W 11D 7L in their last 40 (1.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kasımpaşa at home or Adana Demirspor away?
Adana Demirspor's away record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kasımpaşa at home: 1.40 PPG; Adana Demirspor away: 1.55 PPG.
Have Kasımpaşa or Adana Demirspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kasımpaşa have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Adana Demirspor in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Apr 2023, when Adana Demirspor won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kasımpaşa's record when hosting Adana Demirspor specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Kasımpaşa
2
Draws
2
Adana Demirspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Adana Demirspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Kasımpaşa have won 4, Adana Demirspor have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kasımpaşa and Adana Demirspor last play each other?
They last met on 2 February 2025, when Adana Demirspor 3-5 Kasımpaşa.
Who has won more matches between Kasımpaşa and Adana Demirspor?
Kasımpaşa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Adana Demirspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Kasımpaşa at 75%, Adana Demirspor at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Kasımpaşa and 60% for Adana Demirspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kasımpaşa home games / Adana Demirspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kasımpaşa play Adana Demirspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Kasımpaşa's games and 75% of Adana Demirspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kasımpaşa vs Adana Demirspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Kasımpaşa's matches and 60% of Adana Demirspor's.
Do Kasımpaşa and Adana Demirspor tend to score early?
Kasımpaşa have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Adana Demirspor in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Kasımpaşa defy the odds to beat Adana Demirspor 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kasımpaşa beat Adana Demirspor 2-1 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 6, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 1.71 xG and Adana Demirspor 2.16 xG, a combined 3.88. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Adana Demirspor landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 1.06 / defence 1.40 against Adana Demirspor attack 1.17 / defence 1.16, drawn from 41/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 29% | Draw 25% | Adana Demirspor 46%, with Adana Demirspor to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Kasımpaşa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 54% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 75% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 58%, Adana Demirspor 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Adana Demirspor arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.23. Form was overturned, with Kasımpaşa winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.