Hatayspor 1-1 Trabzonspor – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Trabzonspor at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hatayspor vs Trabzonspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 8 as Hatayspor welcome Trabzonspor to Mersin Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Saturday 5 October 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Hatayspor have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Hatayspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hatayspor at Mersin Stadyumu this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Trabzonspor — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D D D D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Trabzonspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Trabzonspor have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Trabzonspor are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Hatayspor, 3 for Trabzonspor and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Feb 2024, ended 0–2 with Trabzonspor winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Hatayspor in-play and half-time data (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Trabzonspor in-play and half-time data (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hatayspor 54% versus Trabzonspor 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hatayspor 50% | Trabzonspor 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hatayspor 0.73 xG and Trabzonspor 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hatayspor attack 0.744 / defence 1.119 | Trabzonspor attack 0.704 / defence 0.659. League average goals — home 1.483 / away 1.314. Hatayspor's attack strength of 0.744 is below the league average — the 0.73 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Trabzonspor's defence strength of 0.659 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 44 Hatayspor games / 44 Trabzonspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hatayspor 24% | Draw 35% | Trabzonspor 41%. Fair-value odds: Hatayspor 4.17 | Draw 2.86 | Trabzonspor 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.76. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.76 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Hatayspor's lower xG of 0.73 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Trabzonspor as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Trabzonspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.76 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 26% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 35%. Form rates corroborate: Hatayspor 40% | Trabzonspor 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hatayspor vs Trabzonspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Mersin Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Oct 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hatayspor 24% | Draw 35% | Trabzonspor 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 35% | xG Hatayspor 0.73 / Trabzonspor 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Hatayspor attack 0.744 / def 1.119 | Trabzonspor attack 0.704 / def 0.659 | league avg home 1.483 / away 1.314 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.73
Hatayspor xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Trabzonspor xG
35%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hatayspor vs Trabzonspor kick off?
Hatayspor vs Trabzonspor kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 5 October 2024 at Mersin Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Hatayspor vs Trabzonspor?
Hatayspor 1 - 1 Trabzonspor.
Where is Hatayspor vs Trabzonspor being played?
The match is being played at Mersin Stadyumu.
What competition is Hatayspor vs Trabzonspor part of?
Hatayspor vs Trabzonspor is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Hatayspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our statistical model gives Hatayspor a 24% chance of winning, Trabzonspor a 41% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hatayspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Hatayspor and Trabzonspor will score (BTTS).
Will Hatayspor vs Trabzonspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Trabzonspor?
Record (6 meetings): Hatayspor 2W | Draws 1 | Trabzonspor 3W.
What form are Hatayspor and Trabzonspor in?
Hatayspor (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. Trabzonspor (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-D-D-W.
What do the betting odds say about Hatayspor vs Trabzonspor?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Hatayspor's attack rating (0.74) and Trabzonspor's defence rating (0.66), the model arrives at 0.73 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Trabzonspor's attack versus Hatayspor's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (16.1%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
24%
4.18
35%
2.84
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
17.2%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.73
Hatayspor xG
Total xG
1.76
1.04
Trabzonspor xG
4.18
24%
Home win
2.84
35%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.90
65%
BTTS No
1.53
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
48%
2.07
Win to Nil
8%
11.78
20%
5.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.2 | 17.8 | 9.2 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 12.9 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hatayspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.8%.
How many goals are Hatayspor and Trabzonspor expected to score?
The model projects 0.73 expected goals for Hatayspor and 1.04 for Trabzonspor, a combined total of 1.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Hatayspor vs Trabzonspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 44 outings, Hatayspor have picked up 0.98 PPG on a 9W 16D 19L record — D-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Hatayspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Trabzonspor's form line: 22W 9D 13L from 44 games, 1.70 PPG, last five D-D-D-D-W. It's still early in the season for Trabzonspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Trabzonspor are the form team by 0.72 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Hatayspor.
Venue Form
On home soil, Hatayspor have posted 1.32 PPG from 22 outings (7W 8D 7L).
On the road, Trabzonspor have gone 9W 6D 7L from 22 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Hatayspor are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Trabzonspor are on 1.68 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hatayspor
Early Season
Trabzonspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hatayspor and Trabzonspor in coming into this match?
Hatayspor have gone 9W 16D 19L in their last 44 games (0.98 PPG), while Trabzonspor have gone 22W 9D 13L in their last 44 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hatayspor at home or Trabzonspor away?
Trabzonspor's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hatayspor at home: 1.32 PPG; Trabzonspor away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Hatayspor's record when hosting Trabzonspor specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Hatayspor
2
Draws
3
Trabzonspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Trabzonspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Hatayspor have won 3, Trabzonspor have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hatayspor and Trabzonspor last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2025, when Trabzonspor 1-2 Hatayspor.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hatayspor 64%, Trabzonspor 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Hatayspor) and 46% (Trabzonspor).
On the defensive side: Trabzonspor in 32%; Hatayspor have failed to score in 27% of games; Trabzonspor in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hatayspor home games / Trabzonspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hatayspor play Trabzonspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Hatayspor's games and 50% of Trabzonspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hatayspor vs Trabzonspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Hatayspor's recent games and 46% of Trabzonspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hatayspor and Trabzonspor tend to score early?
Hatayspor have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Trabzonspor in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hatayspor and Trabzonspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hatayspor and Trabzonspor finished level at 1-1 at Mersin Stadyumu, Regular Season - 8, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hatayspor 0.73 xG and Trabzonspor 1.04 xG, a combined 1.76. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hatayspor attack 0.74 / defence 1.12 against Trabzonspor attack 0.70 / defence 0.66, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hatayspor 24% | Draw 35% | Trabzonspor 41%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hatayspor 50%, Trabzonspor 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hatayspor's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Trabzonspor's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Trabzonspor arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.