Giresunspor 0-2 Kasımpaşa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Giresunspor at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Giresunspor vs Kasımpaşa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Giresunspor and Kasımpaşa meet at Çotanak Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 16 January 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Giresunspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Giresunspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Giresunspor have posted 4W 2D 4L at Çotanak Stadyumu — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Kasımpaşa (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kasımpaşa's away record: 0W 3D 6L from 9 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.33 PPG). Away from home they average 0.56 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.33 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Giresunspor, 1 for Kasımpaşa and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2021, ended 0–2 with Kasımpaşa winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Giresunspor half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Kasımpaşa half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Giresunspor 35% versus Kasımpaşa 60%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Giresunspor 30% | Kasımpaşa 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Giresunspor 1.21 xG and Kasımpaşa 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Giresunspor attack 0.896 / defence 1.102 | Kasımpaşa attack 0.677 / defence 1.183. League average goals — home 1.138 / away 1.087. Data: 20 Giresunspor games / 20 Kasımpaşa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Giresunspor 44% | Draw 32% | Kasımpaşa 24%. Fair-value odds: Giresunspor 2.27 | Draw 3.12 | Kasımpaşa 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Giresunspor at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Giresunspor if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.02 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates are neutral: Giresunspor 40% | Kasımpaşa 56%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Giresunspor vs Kasımpaşa | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Çotanak Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Jan 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Giresunspor 44% | Draw 32% | Kasımpaşa 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG Giresunspor 1.21 / Kasımpaşa 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Giresunspor attack 0.896 / def 1.102 | Kasımpaşa attack 0.677 / def 1.183 | league avg home 1.138 / away 1.087 • Poisson stance: Giresunspor (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Giresunspor xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Kasımpaşa xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Giresunspor vs Kasımpaşa kick off?
Giresunspor vs Kasımpaşa kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 16 January 2022 at Çotanak Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Giresunspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Giresunspor 0 - 2 Kasımpaşa.
Where is Giresunspor vs Kasımpaşa being played?
The match is being played at Çotanak Stadyumu.
What competition is Giresunspor vs Kasımpaşa part of?
Giresunspor vs Kasımpaşa is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Giresunspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our statistical model gives Giresunspor a 44% chance of winning, Kasımpaşa a 24% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Giresunspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Giresunspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Giresunspor and Kasımpaşa will score (BTTS).
Will Giresunspor vs Kasımpaşa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Giresunspor and Kasımpaşa?
Record (1 meetings): Giresunspor 0W | Draws 0 | Kasımpaşa 1W.
What form are Giresunspor and Kasımpaşa in?
Giresunspor (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Kasımpaşa (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Giresunspor's attack at 0.90x the league average against Kasımpaşa's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Kasımpaşa's attack (0.68x) against Giresunspor's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.7%), 1-0 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Giresunspor Win
44%
2.25
32%
3.17
24%
4.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.3%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Giresunspor xG
Total xG
2.02
0.81
Kasımpaşa xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
4.17
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
20%
5.06
7%
13.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.3 | 10.8 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.0 | 13.0 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.7 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Giresunspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Giresunspor and Kasımpaşa expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Giresunspor and 0.81 for Kasımpaşa, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Giresunspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Giresunspor come into this having played 20 games, going 7W 4D 9L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-W. The sample for Giresunspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Kasımpaşa sit at 0.90 PPG from 20 outings (4W 6D 10L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Kasımpaşa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Giresunspor against 0.90 for Kasımpaşa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Giresunspor's home form reads 4W 2D 3L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.56 PPG return.
Away from home, Kasımpaşa have taken 0.33 points per game from 9 outings (0W 3D 6L). That's a step down from their 0.90 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Kasımpaşa's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Giresunspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Giresunspor are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Kasımpaşa are on 1.10 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kasımpaşa in 60%.
Defensively: Giresunspor have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Giresunspor
Blended
Kasımpaşa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Giresunspor and Kasımpaşa in coming into this match?
Giresunspor have gone 7W 4D 9L in their last 20 games (1.25 PPG), while Kasımpaşa have gone 4W 6D 10L in their last 20 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Giresunspor at home or Kasımpaşa away?
Giresunspor's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Giresunspor at home: 1.56 PPG; Kasımpaşa away: 0.33 PPG.
Have Giresunspor or Kasımpaşa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Giresunspor have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Kasımpaşa in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Kasımpaşa won 5-1 on 1 Feb 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Giresunspor have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Kasımpaşa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Giresunspor
0
Draws
3
Kasımpaşa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Giresunspor and Kasımpaşa?
From 4 meetings on record, Giresunspor have won 1, Kasımpaşa have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Giresunspor and Kasımpaşa last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2023, when Kasımpaşa 5-1 Giresunspor.
Who has won more matches between Giresunspor and Kasımpaşa?
Kasımpaşa have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Giresunspor see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Giresunspor 44%, Kasımpaşa 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Giresunspor and 33% for Kasımpaşa.
On the defensive side: Giresunspor keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Giresunspor have failed to score in 33% of games; Kasımpaşa in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Giresunspor home games / Kasımpaşa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Giresunspor play Kasımpaşa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Giresunspor's recent matches and 56% of Kasımpaşa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Giresunspor vs Kasımpaşa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Giresunspor's recent games and 33% of Kasımpaşa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Giresunspor and Kasımpaşa tend to score early?
Giresunspor have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Kasımpaşa in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kasımpaşa cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Giresunspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kasımpaşa beat Giresunspor 0-2 at Çotanak Stadyumu, Regular Season - 21, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Giresunspor 1.21 xG and Kasımpaşa 0.81 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Giresunspor fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Kasımpaşa outscored their 0.81 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Giresunspor attack 0.90 / defence 1.10 against Kasımpaşa attack 0.68 / defence 1.18, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Giresunspor 44% | Draw 32% | Kasımpaşa 24%, with Giresunspor to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a Kasımpaşa win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Giresunspor 30%, Kasımpaşa 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Giresunspor's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Giresunspor 1.25 PPG, Kasımpaşa 0.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kasımpaşa win broke the near-deadlock. Giresunspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.56 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.