Göztepe 0-2 Hatayspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hatayspor at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Göztepe vs Hatayspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Göztepe host Hatayspor at Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 22 September 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Göztepe have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D L D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Göztepe have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hatayspor stand at 3W 1D 1L from 5 Süper Lig matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 2 clean sheets in 5 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Hatayspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form points away from home here. Hatayspor's 2.00 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Göztepe's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Göztepe register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Hatayspor in 60% (using overall form) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Göztepe trading profile (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 60% of cases; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games.
Hatayspor trading profile (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 40% of cases; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Göztepe 80% and Hatayspor 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Göztepe 60% | Hatayspor 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Göztepe 1.11 xG and Hatayspor 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Göztepe attack 0.895 / defence 1.171 | Hatayspor attack 0.958 / defence 1.146. League average goals — home 1.082 / away 1.092. Data: 5 Göztepe games / 5 Hatayspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Göztepe 33% | Draw 28% | Hatayspor 39%. Fair-value odds: Göztepe 3.03 | Draw 3.57 | Hatayspor 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hatayspor at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hatayspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.33 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. This conflicts with form data: Göztepe 80% | Hatayspor 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Göztepe vs Hatayspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı • Kick-off: Wednesday 22 Sep 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Göztepe 33% | Draw 28% | Hatayspor 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Göztepe 1.11 / Hatayspor 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Göztepe attack 0.895 / def 1.171 | Hatayspor attack 0.958 / def 1.146 | league avg home 1.082 / away 1.092 • Poisson stance: Hatayspor (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Göztepe xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Hatayspor xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Göztepe vs Hatayspor kick off?
Göztepe vs Hatayspor kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 22 September 2021 at Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı.
What was the final score in Göztepe vs Hatayspor?
Göztepe 0 - 2 Hatayspor.
Where is Göztepe vs Hatayspor being played?
The match is being played at Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı.
What competition is Göztepe vs Hatayspor part of?
Göztepe vs Hatayspor is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Göztepe vs Hatayspor?
Our statistical model gives Göztepe a 33% chance of winning, Hatayspor a 39% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Hatayspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Göztepe vs Hatayspor?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Göztepe and Hatayspor will score (BTTS).
Will Göztepe vs Hatayspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Göztepe and Hatayspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Göztepe and Hatayspor in?
Göztepe (all comps): 1W-2D-2L in 5 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-D-W-L. Hatayspor (all comps): 3W-1D-1L in 5 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Göztepe's attack rating (0.90) and Hatayspor's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hatayspor's attack versus Göztepe's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 0-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hatayspor Win
33%
3.02
28%
3.56
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Göztepe xG
Total xG
2.33
1.23
Hatayspor xG
3.02
33%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
29%
3.40
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
10%
10.27
13%
7.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 11.9 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.2 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.3 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Göztepe vs Hatayspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Göztepe and Hatayspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Göztepe and 1.23 for Hatayspor, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Göztepe vs Hatayspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 5 outings, Göztepe have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 1W 2D 2L record — D-L-D-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Göztepe, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Hatayspor's form line: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games, 2.00 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Hatayspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Hatayspor are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Göztepe.
The Goals Picture
Göztepe are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Hatayspor are on 2.20 scored and 0.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Göztepe have seen both teams score in 80% of their recent games; Hatayspor in 60%.
Defensively: Hatayspor in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Göztepe
Early Season
Hatayspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Göztepe and Hatayspor in coming into this match?
Göztepe have gone 1W 2D 2L in their last 5 games (1.00 PPG), while Hatayspor have gone 3W 1D 1L in their last 5 (2.00 PPG).
Have Göztepe or Hatayspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Göztepe have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Hatayspor in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Göztepe and Hatayspor runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Göztepe's record when hosting Hatayspor specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Göztepe
2
Draws
2
Hatayspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Göztepe and Hatayspor?
From 4 meetings on record, Göztepe have won 0, Hatayspor have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Göztepe and Hatayspor last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2025, when Göztepe 1-1 Hatayspor.
Who has won more matches between Göztepe and Hatayspor?
Hatayspor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Göztepe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Göztepe at 80%, Hatayspor at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Göztepe and 60% for Hatayspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hatayspor in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Göztepe home games / Hatayspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Göztepe play Hatayspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Göztepe's games and 60% of Hatayspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Göztepe vs Hatayspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Göztepe's matches and 60% of Hatayspor's.
Do Göztepe and Hatayspor tend to score early?
Göztepe have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Hatayspor in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hatayspor cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Göztepe.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hatayspor beat Göztepe 0-2 at Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı, Regular Season - 6, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Göztepe 1.11 xG and Hatayspor 1.23 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Göztepe fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Göztepe attack 0.90 / defence 1.17 against Hatayspor attack 0.96 / defence 1.15, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Göztepe 33% | Draw 28% | Hatayspor 39%, with Hatayspor to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Göztepe 60%, Hatayspor 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Göztepe's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did not.
Hatayspor's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Hatayspor arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Göztepe managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward. Hatayspor conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.