Göztepe 0-2 Altay – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Göztepe at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Göztepe vs Altay encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Göztepe and Altay meet at Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 6 February 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Göztepe's overall Süper Lig record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Göztepe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Göztepe have posted 3W 2D 5L at Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı this season.
Altay have collected 0.20 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 0W 2D 8L. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Altay, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Altay away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Göztepe. A 1.50 PPG lead over Altay (1.70 vs 0.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Göztepe lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2021, ended 1–2 with Altay winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Göztepe goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (23 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 26% of cases; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Altay goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (23 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Göztepe 70% and Altay 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Göztepe 56% | Altay 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Göztepe 1.42 xG and Altay 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Göztepe attack 0.902 / defence 1.093 | Altay attack 0.721 / defence 1.355. League average goals — home 1.161 / away 1.101. Altay bring a strong defensive rating of 1.355 — this is suppressing Göztepe's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 Göztepe games / 23 Altay games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Göztepe 50% | Draw 27% | Altay 23%. Fair-value odds: Göztepe 2.00 | Draw 3.70 | Altay 4.35. Göztepe hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Göztepe at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Göztepe if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Göztepe 40% | Altay 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Göztepe vs Altay | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Feb 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Göztepe 50% | Draw 27% | Altay 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 44% | xG Göztepe 1.42 / Altay 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Göztepe attack 0.902 / def 1.093 | Altay attack 0.721 / def 1.355 | league avg home 1.161 / away 1.101 • Poisson stance: Göztepe (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Göztepe xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Altay xG
44%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Göztepe vs Altay kick off?
Göztepe vs Altay kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 6 February 2022 at Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı.
What was the final score in Göztepe vs Altay?
Göztepe 0 - 2 Altay.
Where is Göztepe vs Altay being played?
The match is being played at Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı.
What competition is Göztepe vs Altay part of?
Göztepe vs Altay is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Göztepe vs Altay?
Our statistical model gives Göztepe a 50% chance of winning, Altay a 23% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Göztepe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Göztepe vs Altay?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Göztepe and Altay will score (BTTS).
Will Göztepe vs Altay have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Göztepe and Altay?
Record (1 meetings): Göztepe 0W | Draws 0 | Altay 1W.
What form are Göztepe and Altay in?
Göztepe (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Altay (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Göztepe's attack at 0.90x the league average against Altay's defence at 1.35x — combine the two and it projects 1.42 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Altay's attack (0.72x) against Göztepe's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.8%), 0-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Göztepe Win
50%
2.01
27%
3.64
23%
4.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Göztepe xG
Total xG
2.29
0.87
Altay xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
4.39
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
24%
4.14
Win to Nil
21%
4.79
6%
18.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 8.8 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.4 | 12.5 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 8.9 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Göztepe vs Altay?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Göztepe and Altay expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Göztepe and 0.87 for Altay, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Göztepe vs Altay?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 23 outings, Göztepe have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 7W 6D 10L record — D-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Göztepe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Altay's form line: 5W 3D 15L from 23 games, 0.78 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Altay is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.17 PPG for Göztepe against 0.78 for Altay. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Göztepe have posted 1.17 PPG from 12 outings (4W 2D 6L).
On the road, Altay have gone 2W 2D 8L from 12 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Göztepe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Göztepe are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Altay are on 1.04 scored and 1.65 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Göztepe have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; Altay in 61%.
Last 23 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Göztepe
Blended
Altay
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Göztepe and Altay in coming into this match?
Göztepe have gone 7W 6D 10L in their last 23 games (1.17 PPG), while Altay have gone 5W 3D 15L in their last 23 (0.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Göztepe at home or Altay away?
Göztepe's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Göztepe at home: 1.17 PPG; Altay away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Göztepe
0
Draws
2
Altay
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Göztepe and Altay?
From 2 meetings on record, Göztepe have won 0, Altay have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Göztepe and Altay last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2022, when Göztepe 0-2 Altay.
Who has won more matches between Göztepe and Altay?
Altay have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Göztepe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Altay are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Göztepe 42%, Altay 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Göztepe) and 67% (Altay).
On the defensive side: Göztepe have failed to score in 50% of games; Altay in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Göztepe home games / Altay away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Göztepe play Altay?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Göztepe's recent matches and 67% of Altay's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Göztepe vs Altay usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Göztepe's recent games and 67% of Altay's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Göztepe and Altay tend to score early?
Göztepe have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Altay in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Altay cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Göztepe.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Altay beat Göztepe 0-2 at Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı, Regular Season - 24, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Göztepe 1.42 xG and Altay 0.87 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Göztepe fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Altay outscored their 0.87 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Göztepe attack 0.90 / defence 1.09 against Altay attack 0.72 / defence 1.35, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Göztepe 50% | Draw 27% | Altay 23%, with Göztepe to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Altay win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Göztepe 56%, Altay 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Göztepe's trading profile (23 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Altay's trading profile (23 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Göztepe 1.17 PPG, Altay 0.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Altay win broke the near-deadlock. Göztepe (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Altay (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.