Fenerbahçe 2-1 Fatih Karagümrük – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Fenerbahçe at 61% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fenerbahçe vs Fatih Karagümrük encounter.

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Full Analysis

Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi plays host to Fenerbahçe versus Fatih Karagümrük in Süper Lig (matchday 13). Kick-off: Sunday 26 November 2023 at 16:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Fenerbahçe have collected 2.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W W W L D. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

Fenerbahçe's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 3.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Fatih Karagümrük (all games): 2W 5D 3L across their last 10 — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

Fatih Karagümrük away from home: 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The points-per-game gap of 1.40 in Fenerbahçe's favour (2.50 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Fenerbahçe's last 10 home games and Fatih Karagümrük's last 10 away games) — Fenerbahçe have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Fatih Karagümrük in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Fenerbahçe, 0 for Fatih Karagümrük and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.5 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 10 Apr 2023, ended Fenerbahçe 2–1 Fatih Karagümrük — a Fenerbahçe win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Fenerbahçe goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 48 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 57%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.

Fatih Karagümrük goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 48 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fenerbahçe 50% versus Fatih Karagümrük 62%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Fenerbahçe 71% | Fatih Karagümrük 60%). Note also that Fatih Karagümrük surrender HT leads in 35% of cases while Fenerbahçe recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 57% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Fenerbahçe 2.37 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fenerbahçe attack 1.668 / defence 1.136 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.944 / defence 0.964. League average goals — home 1.476 / away 1.188. Fenerbahçe carry an above-average attack rating of 1.668 — their 2.37 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Fenerbahçe's last 48 games and Fatih Karagümrük's last 48.

Result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 61% | Draw 21% | Fatih Karagümrük 18%. Fair-value odds: Fenerbahçe 1.65 | Draw 4.71 | Fatih Karagümrük 5.51. The model has a clear lean to Fenerbahçe (61%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS Yes probability 66% | Total xG 3.65. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.65 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% — both xG figures (2.37 / 1.27) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Fenerbahçe at 61% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.65 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 71% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Fenerbahçe's last 10 home games and Fatih Karagümrük's last 10 away games) averaging 3.6 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Fenerbahçe 60% (last 10 home games) | Fatih Karagümrük 60% (last 10 away games).

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