Fatih Karagümrük 4-2 Ümraniyespor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fatih Karagümrük at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fatih Karagümrük vs Ümraniyespor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Fatih Karagümrük and Ümraniyespor meet at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 18 April 2023 at 18:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Fatih Karagümrük have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 4W 5D 1L. Last five: D D W L W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Fatih Karagümrük have posted 3W 4D 3L at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı — 1.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Ümraniyespor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: W W D D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Ümraniyespor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ümraniyespor's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Fatih Karagümrük's 1.70 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Ümraniyespor's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Fatih Karagümrük register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Ümraniyespor in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Fatih Karagümrük, 0 for Ümraniyespor and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2022, ended 3–1 with Fatih Karagümrük winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Fatih Karagümrük half-time and goal-timing data (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 85% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
Ümraniyespor half-time and goal-timing data (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fatih Karagümrük 74% and Ümraniyespor 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Fatih Karagümrük 74% | Ümraniyespor 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fatih Karagümrük 2.32 xG and Ümraniyespor 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.242 / defence 1.278 | Ümraniyespor attack 1.038 / defence 1.104. League average goals — home 1.690 / away 1.260. Data: 65 Fatih Karagümrük games / 27 Ümraniyespor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 52% | Draw 20% | Ümraniyespor 28%. Fair-value odds: Fatih Karagümrük 1.92 | Draw 5.00 | Ümraniyespor 3.57. Fatih Karagümrük hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (20%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 3.99. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 3.99 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (2.32 / 1.67) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fatih Karagümrük at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.99 combined xG gives a 76% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 73%. Form rates corroborate: Fatih Karagümrük 80% | Ümraniyespor 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fatih Karagümrük vs Ümraniyespor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı • Kick-off: Tuesday 18 Apr 2023, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 52% | Draw 20% | Ümraniyespor 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 73% | xG Fatih Karagümrük 2.32 / Ümraniyespor 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.242 / def 1.278 | Ümraniyespor attack 1.038 / def 1.104 | league avg home 1.690 / away 1.260 • Poisson stance: Fatih Karagümrük (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.32
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Expected Goals
1.67
Ümraniyespor xG
73%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fatih Karagümrük vs Ümraniyespor kick off?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Ümraniyespor kicked off at 18:30 on Tuesday 18 April 2023 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What was the final score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Ümraniyespor?
Fatih Karagümrük 4 - 2 Ümraniyespor.
Where is Fatih Karagümrük vs Ümraniyespor being played?
The match is being played at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What competition is Fatih Karagümrük vs Ümraniyespor part of?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Ümraniyespor is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fatih Karagümrük vs Ümraniyespor?
Our statistical model gives Fatih Karagümrük a 52% chance of winning, Ümraniyespor a 28% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Fatih Karagümrük the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Ümraniyespor?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both Fatih Karagümrük and Ümraniyespor will score (BTTS).
Will Fatih Karagümrük vs Ümraniyespor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Ümraniyespor?
Record (1 meetings): Fatih Karagümrük 1W | Draws 0 | Ümraniyespor 0W.
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Ümraniyespor in?
Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-L-W. Ümraniyespor (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Fatih Karagümrük's attack at 1.24x the league average against Ümraniyespor's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 2.32 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ümraniyespor's attack (1.04x) against Fatih Karagümrük's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 1.67.
These ratings are built from 65/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.1%), 2-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fatih Karagümrük Win
52%
1.91
20%
5.05
28%
3.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.2%
Draw
2 – 2
6.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.32
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Total xG
3.99
1.67
Ümraniyespor xG
1.91
52%
Home win
5.05
20%
Draw
3.59
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
56%
Over 3.5
1.79
44%
Under 3.5
2.27
37%
Over 4.5
2.70
63%
Under 4.5
1.59
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.37
27%
BTTS No
3.73
Clean Sheet
19%
5.32
10%
10.14
Win to Nil
10%
10.16
3%
36.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 7.2 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.3 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 6.4 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fatih Karagümrük vs Ümraniyespor?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.3%.
How many goals are Fatih Karagümrük and Ümraniyespor expected to score?
The model projects 2.32 expected goals for Fatih Karagümrük and 1.67 for Ümraniyespor, a combined total of 3.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Fatih Karagümrük vs Ümraniyespor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Fatih Karagümrük come into this having played 27 games, going 9W 10D 8L for 1.37 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-L-W. The sample for Fatih Karagümrük is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ümraniyespor sit at 0.85 PPG from 27 outings (5W 8D 14L), a run that reads W-W-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Ümraniyespor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fatih Karagümrük carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.52 PPG clear of Ümraniyespor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Fatih Karagümrük's home form reads 4W 5D 4L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.31 PPG return.
Away from home, Ümraniyespor have taken 1.00 points per game from 13 outings (3W 4D 6L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fatih Karagümrük are averaging 2.07 goals scored and 1.81 conceded per game recently; Ümraniyespor are on 1.33 scored and 1.78 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fatih Karagümrük have seen both teams score in 74% of their recent games; Ümraniyespor in 70%.
Last 27 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fatih Karagümrük
Blended
Ümraniyespor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Ümraniyespor in coming into this match?
Fatih Karagümrük have gone 9W 10D 8L in their last 27 games (1.37 PPG), while Ümraniyespor have gone 5W 8D 14L in their last 27 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fatih Karagümrük at home or Ümraniyespor away?
Fatih Karagümrük's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fatih Karagümrük at home: 1.31 PPG; Ümraniyespor away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Fatih Karagümrük
0
Draws
0
Ümraniyespor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Ümraniyespor?
From 2 meetings on record, Fatih Karagümrük have won 2, Ümraniyespor have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Fatih Karagümrük and Ümraniyespor last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2023, when Fatih Karagümrük 4-2 Ümraniyespor.
Who has won more matches between Fatih Karagümrük and Ümraniyespor?
Fatih Karagümrük have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Ümraniyespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 85% for Fatih Karagümrük, 77% for Ümraniyespor — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 77% for Fatih Karagümrük and 62% for Ümraniyespor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fatih Karagümrük home games / Ümraniyespor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fatih Karagümrük play Ümraniyespor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 85% of Fatih Karagümrük's games and 77% of Ümraniyespor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fatih Karagümrük vs Ümraniyespor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of Fatih Karagümrük's matches and 62% of Ümraniyespor's.
Do Fatih Karagümrük and Ümraniyespor tend to score early?
Fatih Karagümrük have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Ümraniyespor in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fatih Karagümrük cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Ümraniyespor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fatih Karagümrük beat Ümraniyespor 4-2 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı, Regular Season - 30, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fatih Karagümrük 2.32 xG and Ümraniyespor 1.67 xG, a combined 3.99. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Fatih Karagümrük beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.24 / defence 1.28 against Ümraniyespor attack 1.04 / defence 1.10, drawn from 65/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fatih Karagümrük 52% | Draw 20% | Ümraniyespor 28%, with Fatih Karagümrük to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 56% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fatih Karagümrük 74%, Ümraniyespor 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 72%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.
Ümraniyespor's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Fatih Karagümrük arrived the stronger side — 1.37 PPG against 0.85. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.23 average — above their attacking norm. Ümraniyespor (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.