Fatih Karagümrük 0-3 Gaziantep FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fatih Karagümrük at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fatih Karagümrük vs Gaziantep FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Fatih Karagümrük and Gaziantep FK meet at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 23 December 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Fatih Karagümrük's overall Süper Lig record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fatih Karagümrük's home record at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Fatih Karagümrük are significantly better at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı than their overall form suggests.
Gaziantep FK (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Gaziantep FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gaziantep FK away from home this season: 2W 0D 8L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Fatih Karagümrük, 1.30 for Gaziantep FK — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Fatih Karagümrük have seen both teams score in just 20% of their matches, Gaziantep FK in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Fatih Karagümrük 2W, Gaziantep FK 1W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.5 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 7 May 2023, ended 3–0 with Fatih Karagümrük winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Fatih Karagümrük — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Gaziantep FK — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fatih Karagümrük 61% versus Gaziantep FK 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fatih Karagümrük 61% | Gaziantep FK 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fatih Karagümrük 1.81 xG and Gaziantep FK 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.025 / defence 0.726 | Gaziantep FK attack 0.885 / defence 1.127. League average goals — home 1.569 / away 1.266. Fatih Karagümrük's defence rating of 0.726 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 52 Fatih Karagümrük games / 51 Gaziantep FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 61% | Draw 24% | Gaziantep FK 16%. Fair-value odds: Fatih Karagümrük 1.64 | Draw 4.17 | Gaziantep FK 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Fatih Karagümrük (61%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fatih Karagümrük are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 4.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Fatih Karagümrük 20% | Gaziantep FK 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fatih Karagümrük vs Gaziantep FK | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Dec 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 61% | Draw 24% | Gaziantep FK 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 47% | xG Fatih Karagümrük 1.81 / Gaziantep FK 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.025 / def 0.726 | Gaziantep FK attack 0.885 / def 1.127 | league avg home 1.569 / away 1.266 • Poisson stance: Fatih Karagümrük (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Gaziantep FK xG
47%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fatih Karagümrük vs Gaziantep FK kick off?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Gaziantep FK kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 23 December 2023 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What was the final score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Gaziantep FK?
Fatih Karagümrük 0 - 3 Gaziantep FK.
Where is Fatih Karagümrük vs Gaziantep FK being played?
The match is being played at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What competition is Fatih Karagümrük vs Gaziantep FK part of?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Gaziantep FK is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fatih Karagümrük vs Gaziantep FK?
Our statistical model gives Fatih Karagümrük a 61% chance of winning, Gaziantep FK a 16% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Fatih Karagümrük the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Gaziantep FK?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Fatih Karagümrük and Gaziantep FK will score (BTTS).
Will Fatih Karagümrük vs Gaziantep FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Gaziantep FK?
Record (4 meetings): Fatih Karagümrük 2W | Draws 1 | Gaziantep FK 1W.
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Gaziantep FK in?
Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Gaziantep FK (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Fatih Karagümrük's attack at 1.02x the league average against Gaziantep FK's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.81 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Gaziantep FK's attack (0.89x) against Fatih Karagümrük's defence (0.73x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 52/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (11.9%), 1-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fatih Karagümrük Win
61%
1.65
24%
4.23
16%
6.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.9%
Home win
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Total xG
2.63
0.81
Gaziantep FK xG
1.65
61%
Home win
4.23
24%
Draw
6.30
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
44%
2.26
16%
6.12
Win to Nil
27%
3.73
3%
38.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.1 | 10.7 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.2 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fatih Karagümrük vs Gaziantep FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Fatih Karagümrük and Gaziantep FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Fatih Karagümrük and 0.81 for Gaziantep FK, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Fatih Karagümrük vs Gaziantep FK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Fatih Karagümrük's recent record stands at 17W 17D 17L from 51 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Fatih Karagümrük is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gaziantep FK, meanwhile, have gone 11W 8D 32L across 51 games — 0.80 PPG, with W-L-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Gaziantep FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fatih Karagümrük by 0.53 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Gaziantep FK heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Fatih Karagümrük have managed 10W 8D 7L from 25 games — 1.52 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Gaziantep FK's away record stands at 5W 2D 18L across 25 trips, a 0.68 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fatih Karagümrük come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fatih Karagümrük are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Gaziantep FK are on 0.94 scored and 1.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fatih Karagümrük have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 51 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fatih Karagümrük
Blended
Gaziantep FK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Gaziantep FK in coming into this match?
Fatih Karagümrük have gone 17W 17D 17L in their last 51 games (1.33 PPG), while Gaziantep FK have gone 11W 8D 32L in their last 51 (0.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fatih Karagümrük at home or Gaziantep FK away?
Fatih Karagümrük's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fatih Karagümrük at home: 1.52 PPG; Gaziantep FK away: 0.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fatih Karagümrük won 0-3 on 7 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fatih Karagümrük have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Gaziantep FK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Fatih Karagümrük
2
Draws
4
Gaziantep FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Gaziantep FK?
From 8 meetings on record, Fatih Karagümrük have won 2, Gaziantep FK have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fatih Karagümrük and Gaziantep FK last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Gaziantep FK 1-1 Fatih Karagümrük.
Who has won more matches between Fatih Karagümrük and Gaziantep FK?
Gaziantep FK have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Gaziantep FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fatih Karagümrük 56%, Gaziantep FK 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Fatih Karagümrük and 60% for Gaziantep FK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 12% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fatih Karagümrük keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Gaziantep FK in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fatih Karagümrük home games / Gaziantep FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fatih Karagümrük play Gaziantep FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Fatih Karagümrük's recent matches and 36% of Gaziantep FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fatih Karagümrük vs Gaziantep FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Fatih Karagümrük's matches and 60% of Gaziantep FK's.
Do Fatih Karagümrük and Gaziantep FK tend to score early?
Fatih Karagümrük have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Gaziantep FK in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Gaziantep FK run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Fatih Karagümrük.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gaziantep FK beat Fatih Karagümrük 0-3 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı, Regular Season - 18, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fatih Karagümrük 1.81 xG and Gaziantep FK 0.81 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Fatih Karagümrük fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Gaziantep FK outscored their 0.81 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.02 / defence 0.73 against Gaziantep FK attack 0.89 / defence 1.13, drawn from 52/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fatih Karagümrük 61% | Draw 24% | Gaziantep FK 16%, with Fatih Karagümrük to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a Gaziantep FK win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fatih Karagümrük 61%, Gaziantep FK 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Gaziantep FK's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Fatih Karagümrük arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.80. Form was overturned, with Gaziantep FK winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.96 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.28 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gaziantep FK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.84 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.96 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.