Erzurumspor FK vs Rizespor – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Rizespor at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Erzurumspor FK vs Rizespor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
plays host to Erzurumspor FK versus Rizespor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Sunday 11 April 2027 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Erzurumspor FK (all games): 1W 1D 2L across 4 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D W. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Erzurumspor FK have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Rizespor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L D W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Rizespor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Rizespor's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Rizespor are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading
Erzurumspor FK half-time and goal-timing data (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Rizespor half-time and goal-timing data (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Erzurumspor FK 25% versus Rizespor 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Erzurumspor FK 50% | Rizespor 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Erzurumspor FK 0.92 xG and Rizespor 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Erzurumspor FK attack 0.655 / defence 1.210 | Rizespor attack 1.031 / defence 0.901. League average goals — home 1.556 / away 1.183. Erzurumspor FK's attack strength of 0.655 is below the league average — the 0.92 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 4 Erzurumspor FK games / 37 Rizespor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Erzurumspor FK 23% | Draw 26% | Rizespor 50%. Fair-value odds: Erzurumspor FK 4.35 | Draw 3.85 | Rizespor 2.00. Rizespor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rizespor at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rizespor if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.39 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Erzurumspor FK 25% | Rizespor 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Erzurumspor FK vs Rizespor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Apr 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Erzurumspor FK 23% | Draw 26% | Rizespor 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 46% | xG Erzurumspor FK 0.92 / Rizespor 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Erzurumspor FK attack 0.655 / def 1.210 | Rizespor attack 1.031 / def 0.901 | league avg home 1.556 / away 1.183 • Poisson stance: Rizespor (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Erzurumspor FK xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Rizespor xG
46%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Erzurumspor FK vs Rizespor kick off?
Erzurumspor FK vs Rizespor is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 11 April 2027.
What competition is Erzurumspor FK vs Rizespor part of?
Erzurumspor FK vs Rizespor is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Erzurumspor FK vs Rizespor?
Our statistical model gives Erzurumspor FK a 23% chance of winning, Rizespor a 50% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Rizespor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Erzurumspor FK vs Rizespor?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Erzurumspor FK and Rizespor will score (BTTS).
Will Erzurumspor FK vs Rizespor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Erzurumspor FK and Rizespor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Erzurumspor FK and Rizespor in?
Erzurumspor FK (all comps): 1W-1D-2L in 4 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-W. Rizespor (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Erzurumspor FK's attack rating (0.66) and Rizespor's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 0.92 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Rizespor's attack (1.03x) against Erzurumspor FK's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.48.
These ratings are built from 4/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.9%), 0-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rizespor Win
23%
4.26
26%
3.79
50%
1.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Erzurumspor FK xG
Total xG
2.39
1.48
Rizespor xG
4.26
23%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
1.99
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
23%
4.37
40%
2.50
Win to Nil
5%
18.62
20%
4.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 13.5 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.4 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 5.7 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Erzurumspor FK vs Rizespor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Erzurumspor FK and Rizespor expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Erzurumspor FK and 1.48 for Rizespor, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Erzurumspor FK vs Rizespor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 4 outings, Erzurumspor FK have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 1W 1D 2L record — L-L-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Erzurumspor FK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Rizespor's form line: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games, 1.75 PPG, last five D-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Rizespor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Rizespor are the form team by 0.75 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Erzurumspor FK.
Attack vs Defence
Erzurumspor FK are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Rizespor are on 1.25 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Erzurumspor FK have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games.
Last 4 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Erzurumspor FK
Early Season
Rizespor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Erzurumspor FK and Rizespor in coming into this match?
Erzurumspor FK have gone 1W 1D 2L in their last 4 games (1.00 PPG), while Rizespor have gone 2W 1D 1L in their last 4 (1.75 PPG).
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Erzurumspor FK see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Erzurumspor FK 25%, Rizespor 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Erzurumspor FK) and 50% (Rizespor).
On the defensive side: Erzurumspor FK have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Erzurumspor FK home games / Rizespor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Erzurumspor FK play Rizespor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Erzurumspor FK's recent matches and 50% of Rizespor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Erzurumspor FK vs Rizespor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Erzurumspor FK's recent games and 50% of Rizespor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Erzurumspor FK and Rizespor tend to score early?
Erzurumspor FK have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Rizespor in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.