Beşiktaş 1-0 Fenerbahçe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fenerbahçe at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Beşiktaş vs Fenerbahçe encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Tüpraş Stadyumu plays host to Beşiktaş versus Fenerbahçe in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Saturday 7 December 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Beşiktaş have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Beşiktaş, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Beşiktaş have posted 6W 2D 2L at Tüpraş Stadyumu — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Beşiktaş are significantly better at Tüpraş Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Fenerbahçe (all games): 8W 1D 1L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 2.50 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Fenerbahçe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fenerbahçe's form when playing away from home: 6W 4D 0L across 10 road games this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
On a straight form reading, Fenerbahçe are the stronger side — 1.20 PPG clear of the hosts (2.50 vs 1.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Beşiktaş 1W, Fenerbahçe 2W, 2D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 27 Apr 2024, ended 1–2 with Fenerbahçe winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Beşiktaş goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Fenerbahçe goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; they lead at the break 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 51%; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beşiktaş 53% versus Fenerbahçe 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beşiktaş 47% | Fenerbahçe 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beşiktaş 1.48 xG and Fenerbahçe 2.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beşiktaş attack 1.095 / defence 1.239 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.687 / defence 0.856. League average goals — home 1.576 / away 1.292. Fenerbahçe have an above-average attack strength of 1.687 — the away xG of 2.70 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 51 Beşiktaş games / 51 Fenerbahçe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beşiktaş 18% | Draw 19% | Fenerbahçe 62%. Fair-value odds: Beşiktaş 5.56 | Draw 5.26 | Fenerbahçe 1.61. The model has a clear lean to Fenerbahçe (62%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 79% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 4.18. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 79% — a total xG of 4.18 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (1.48 / 2.70) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Fenerbahçe as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 4.18 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 79% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 73% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Beşiktaş 70% | Fenerbahçe 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beşiktaş vs Fenerbahçe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Tüpraş Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Dec 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beşiktaş 18% | Draw 19% | Fenerbahçe 62% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 79% | BTTS 73% | xG Beşiktaş 1.48 / Fenerbahçe 2.70 • Poisson strength factors: Beşiktaş attack 1.095 / def 1.239 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.687 / def 0.856 | league avg home 1.576 / away 1.292 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Beşiktaş xG
Expected Goals
2.70
Fenerbahçe xG
73%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
79%
Over 2.5
60%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beşiktaş vs Fenerbahçe kick off?
Beşiktaş vs Fenerbahçe kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 7 December 2024 at Tüpraş Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Beşiktaş vs Fenerbahçe?
Beşiktaş 1 - 0 Fenerbahçe.
Where is Beşiktaş vs Fenerbahçe being played?
The match is being played at Tüpraş Stadyumu.
What competition is Beşiktaş vs Fenerbahçe part of?
Beşiktaş vs Fenerbahçe is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Beşiktaş vs Fenerbahçe?
Our statistical model gives Beşiktaş a 18% chance of winning, Fenerbahçe a 62% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beşiktaş vs Fenerbahçe?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both Beşiktaş and Fenerbahçe will score (BTTS).
Will Beşiktaş vs Fenerbahçe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 79%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Fenerbahçe?
Record (5 meetings): Beşiktaş 1W | Draws 2 | Fenerbahçe 2W.
What form are Beşiktaş and Fenerbahçe in?
Beşiktaş (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-L-D. Fenerbahçe (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Beşiktaş's attack rating (1.09) and Fenerbahçe's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.48 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fenerbahçe's attack (1.69x) against Beşiktaş's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 2.70.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.3%. Close behind: 1-3 (7.4%), 1-1 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
18%
5.46
19%
5.21
62%
1.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 3
7.4%
Away win
1 – 1
6.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Beşiktaş xG
Total xG
4.18
2.70
Fenerbahçe xG
5.46
18%
Home win
5.21
19%
Draw
1.60
62%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
79%
Over 2.5
1.27
21%
Under 2.5
4.76
60%
Over 3.5
1.67
40%
Under 3.5
2.50
41%
Over 4.5
2.44
59%
Under 4.5
1.69
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.37
27%
BTTS No
3.70
Clean Sheet
7%
14.88
23%
4.38
Win to Nil
1%
81.22
14%
7.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.5 | 4.1 | 5.6 | 5.0 | 3.4 | 1.8 |
| 1 | 2.3 | 6.1 | 8.3 | 7.4 | 5.0 | 2.7 |
| 2 | 1.7 | 4.5 | 6.1 | 5.5 | 3.7 | 2.0 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beşiktaş vs Fenerbahçe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.3%.
How many goals are Beşiktaş and Fenerbahçe expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Beşiktaş and 2.70 for Fenerbahçe, a combined total of 4.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Beşiktaş vs Fenerbahçe?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Beşiktaş's recent record stands at 22W 12D 17L from 51 games, a 1.53 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Beşiktaş is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fenerbahçe, meanwhile, have gone 41W 8D 2L across 51 games — 2.57 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Fenerbahçe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fenerbahçe by 1.04 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Beşiktaş heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Beşiktaş have managed 14W 4D 7L from 25 games — 1.84 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fenerbahçe's away record stands at 20W 5D 0L across 25 trips, a 2.60 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fenerbahçe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Beşiktaş are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Fenerbahçe are on 2.65 scored and 0.84 conceded.
Defensively: Beşiktaş have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; Fenerbahçe in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beşiktaş
Blended
Fenerbahçe
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beşiktaş and Fenerbahçe in coming into this match?
Beşiktaş have gone 22W 12D 17L in their last 51 games (1.53 PPG), while Fenerbahçe have gone 41W 8D 2L in their last 51 (2.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beşiktaş at home or Fenerbahçe away?
Fenerbahçe's away record (2.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beşiktaş at home: 1.84 PPG; Fenerbahçe away: 2.60 PPG.
Have Beşiktaş or Fenerbahçe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beşiktaş have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Fenerbahçe in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Beşiktaş have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Fenerbahçe — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Beşiktaş
2
Draws
4
Fenerbahçe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Fenerbahçe?
From 10 meetings on record, Beşiktaş have won 4, Fenerbahçe have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Beşiktaş and Fenerbahçe last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when Fenerbahçe 1-2 Beşiktaş.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beşiktaş 52%, Fenerbahçe 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Beşiktaş) and 52% (Fenerbahçe).
On the defensive side: Beşiktaş keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Fenerbahçe in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beşiktaş home games / Fenerbahçe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beşiktaş play Fenerbahçe?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Beşiktaş's recent matches and 44% of Fenerbahçe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Beşiktaş vs Fenerbahçe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Beşiktaş's recent games and 52% of Fenerbahçe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Beşiktaş and Fenerbahçe tend to score early?
Beşiktaş have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Fenerbahçe in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Beşiktaş defy the odds to beat Fenerbahçe 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beşiktaş beat Fenerbahçe 1-0 at Tüpraş Stadyumu, Regular Season - 15, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beşiktaş 1.48 xG and Fenerbahçe 2.70 xG, a combined 4.18. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Fenerbahçe landed 2.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beşiktaş attack 1.09 / defence 1.24 against Fenerbahçe attack 1.69 / defence 0.86, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beşiktaş 18% | Draw 19% | Fenerbahçe 62%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a Beşiktaş win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 79%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 93% and missed. Over 3.5 was 60% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beşiktaş 47%, Fenerbahçe 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beşiktaş's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.57 PPG against 1.53. Form was overturned, with Beşiktaş winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.40 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.