Başakşehir 0-2 Sivasspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Başakşehir at 67% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Başakşehir vs Sivasspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sivasspor make the trip to Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu to face Başakşehir in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Monday 10 October 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Başakşehir (all games): 6W 4D 0L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.30 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.30 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Başakşehir have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Başakşehir's home record at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Sivasspor have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Sivasspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Sivasspor have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Başakşehir. A 1.20 PPG lead over Sivasspor (2.20 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Başakşehir lead 2W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Apr 2022, ended 2–0 with Başakşehir winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Başakşehir — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Sivasspor — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Başakşehir 49% versus Sivasspor 69%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Başakşehir 49% | Sivasspor 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 1.93 xG and Sivasspor 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 1.084 / defence 0.589 | Sivasspor attack 0.918 / defence 1.284. League average goals — home 1.388 / away 1.273. Sivasspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.284 — this is suppressing Başakşehir's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Başakşehir's defence rating of 0.589 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 45 Başakşehir games / 46 Sivasspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Başakşehir 67% | Draw 21% | Sivasspor 12%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 1.49 | Draw 4.76 | Sivasspor 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Başakşehir (67%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Başakşehir are the pick at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.62 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Başakşehir 20% | Sivasspor 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Başakşehir vs Sivasspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 10 Oct 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Başakşehir 67% | Draw 21% | Sivasspor 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 43% | xG Başakşehir 1.93 / Sivasspor 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Başakşehir attack 1.084 / def 0.589 | Sivasspor attack 0.918 / def 1.284 | league avg home 1.388 / away 1.273 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
Başakşehir xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Sivasspor xG
43%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Başakşehir vs Sivasspor kick off?
Başakşehir vs Sivasspor kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 10 October 2022 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Başakşehir vs Sivasspor?
Başakşehir 0 - 2 Sivasspor.
Where is Başakşehir vs Sivasspor being played?
The match is being played at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What competition is Başakşehir vs Sivasspor part of?
Başakşehir vs Sivasspor is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Başakşehir vs Sivasspor?
Our statistical model gives Başakşehir a 67% chance of winning, Sivasspor a 12% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Başakşehir vs Sivasspor?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Başakşehir and Sivasspor will score (BTTS).
Will Başakşehir vs Sivasspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Sivasspor?
Record (2 meetings): Başakşehir 2W | Draws 0 | Sivasspor 0W.
What form are Başakşehir and Sivasspor in?
Başakşehir (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Sivasspor (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Başakşehir's attack at 1.08x the league average against Sivasspor's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 1.93 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sivasspor's attack (0.92x) against Başakşehir's defence (0.59x) — and the away total comes out at 0.69.
These ratings are built from 45/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.8%), 1-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
67%
1.50
21%
4.83
12%
8.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.6%
Home win
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
Başakşehir xG
Total xG
2.62
0.69
Sivasspor xG
1.50
67%
Home win
4.83
21%
Draw
8.03
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
50%
1.99
14%
6.91
Win to Nil
34%
2.98
2%
55.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.0 | 9.7 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.6 | 9.4 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.7 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Başakşehir vs Sivasspor?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Başakşehir and Sivasspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Başakşehir and 0.69 for Sivasspor, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Başakşehir vs Sivasspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Başakşehir come into this having played 45 games, going 24W 10D 11L for 1.82 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-W. It's still early in the season for Başakşehir, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Sivasspor sit at 1.29 PPG from 45 outings (14W 16D 15L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Sivasspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Başakşehir carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.53 PPG clear of Sivasspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Başakşehir's home form reads 15W 3D 4L across 22 games on their own ground, a 2.18 PPG return.
Away from home, Sivasspor have taken 1.14 points per game from 22 outings (7W 4D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Başakşehir come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Başakşehir are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 0.82 conceded per game recently; Sivasspor are on 1.29 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sivasspor in 69%.
Defensively: Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Başakşehir
Early Season
Sivasspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Başakşehir and Sivasspor in coming into this match?
Başakşehir have gone 24W 10D 11L in their last 45 games (1.82 PPG), while Sivasspor have gone 14W 16D 15L in their last 45 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Başakşehir at home or Sivasspor away?
Başakşehir's home record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Başakşehir at home: 2.18 PPG; Sivasspor away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Başakşehir or Sivasspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Sivasspor in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Başakşehir have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Başakşehir have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sivasspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Başakşehir
1
Draws
1
Sivasspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Sivasspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Başakşehir have won 6, Sivasspor have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Başakşehir and Sivasspor last play each other?
They last met on 3 March 2025, when Başakşehir 1-0 Sivasspor.
Who has won more matches between Başakşehir and Sivasspor?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Başakşehir 41%, Sivasspor 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Başakşehir) and 64% (Sivasspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 18% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Başakşehir keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Başakşehir home games / Sivasspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Başakşehir play Sivasspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Başakşehir's recent matches and 68% of Sivasspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Başakşehir vs Sivasspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Başakşehir's matches and 64% of Sivasspor's.
Do Başakşehir and Sivasspor tend to score early?
Başakşehir have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Sivasspor in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sivasspor cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Başakşehir.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sivasspor beat Başakşehir 0-2 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu, Regular Season - 9, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Başakşehir 1.93 xG and Sivasspor 0.69 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Başakşehir fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Sivasspor outscored their 0.69 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Başakşehir attack 1.08 / defence 0.59 against Sivasspor attack 0.92 / defence 1.28, drawn from 45/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Başakşehir 67% | Draw 21% | Sivasspor 12%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 67%. Instead the game produced a Sivasspor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 12% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Başakşehir 49%, Sivasspor 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Başakşehir's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Sivasspor's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Başakşehir arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.29. Form was overturned, with Sivasspor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Başakşehir (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.73 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sivasspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.68 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.