Başakşehir 1-0 Hatayspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Başakşehir at 56% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Başakşehir vs Hatayspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Hatayspor travel to Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu to take on Başakşehir. The game is scheduled for Sunday 10 December 2023, 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Başakşehir stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Başakşehir, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu, Başakşehir have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Başakşehir are significantly better at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Hatayspor have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Hatayspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Hatayspor have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Başakşehir 0.90 PPG, Hatayspor 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
Başakşehir hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 3 wins from 4 previous encounters compared to 0 for Hatayspor, with 1 draws in between.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Apr 2023, ended 3–0 with Başakşehir winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Başakşehir and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 3.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Başakşehir in-play and half-time data (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Hatayspor in-play and half-time data (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Başakşehir 36% versus Hatayspor 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Başakşehir 40% | Hatayspor 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 1.98 xG and Hatayspor 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 1.176 / defence 1.043 | Hatayspor attack 0.859 / defence 1.061. League average goals — home 1.586 / away 1.265. Data: 50 Başakşehir games / 50 Hatayspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Başakşehir 56% | Draw 23% | Hatayspor 21%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 1.79 | Draw 4.35 | Hatayspor 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Başakşehir (56%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Başakşehir at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.11 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Başakşehir 50% | Hatayspor 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Başakşehir vs Hatayspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Dec 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Başakşehir 56% | Draw 23% | Hatayspor 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 59% | xG Başakşehir 1.98 / Hatayspor 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Başakşehir attack 1.176 / def 1.043 | Hatayspor attack 0.859 / def 1.061 | league avg home 1.586 / away 1.265 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
Başakşehir xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Hatayspor xG
59%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Başakşehir vs Hatayspor kick off?
Başakşehir vs Hatayspor kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 10 December 2023 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Başakşehir vs Hatayspor?
Başakşehir 1 - 0 Hatayspor.
Where is Başakşehir vs Hatayspor being played?
The match is being played at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What competition is Başakşehir vs Hatayspor part of?
Başakşehir vs Hatayspor is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Başakşehir vs Hatayspor?
Our statistical model gives Başakşehir a 56% chance of winning, Hatayspor a 21% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Başakşehir vs Hatayspor?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Başakşehir and Hatayspor will score (BTTS).
Will Başakşehir vs Hatayspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Hatayspor?
Record (4 meetings): Başakşehir 3W | Draws 1 | Hatayspor 0W.
What form are Başakşehir and Hatayspor in?
Başakşehir (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Hatayspor (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Başakşehir's attack at 1.18x the league average against Hatayspor's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.98 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hatayspor's attack versus Başakşehir's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
56%
1.78
23%
4.36
21%
4.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
Başakşehir xG
Total xG
3.11
1.13
Hatayspor xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
4.82
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
14%
7.24
Win to Nil
18%
5.52
3%
34.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 10.0 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.9 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.5 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Başakşehir vs Hatayspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Başakşehir and Hatayspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Başakşehir and 1.13 for Hatayspor, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Başakşehir vs Hatayspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Başakşehir come into this having played 50 games, going 21W 11D 18L for 1.48 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-L. The sample for Başakşehir is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hatayspor sit at 0.82 PPG from 50 outings (10W 11D 29L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Hatayspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Başakşehir carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.66 PPG clear of Hatayspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Başakşehir's home form reads 14W 3D 7L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.88 PPG return.
Away from home, Hatayspor have taken 0.54 points per game from 24 outings (3W 4D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Başakşehir come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Başakşehir are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Hatayspor are on 0.86 scored and 2.08 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Başakşehir
Blended
Hatayspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Başakşehir and Hatayspor in coming into this match?
Başakşehir have gone 21W 11D 18L in their last 50 games (1.48 PPG), while Hatayspor have gone 10W 11D 29L in their last 50 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Başakşehir at home or Hatayspor away?
Başakşehir's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Başakşehir at home: 1.88 PPG; Hatayspor away: 0.54 PPG.
Have Başakşehir or Hatayspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Hatayspor in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Başakşehir have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Dec 2021, when Başakşehir won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Başakşehir's record when hosting Hatayspor specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
7
Başakşehir
1
Draws
0
Hatayspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Hatayspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Başakşehir have won 7, Hatayspor have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Başakşehir and Hatayspor last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2025, when Hatayspor 2-4 Başakşehir.
Who has won more matches between Başakşehir and Hatayspor?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Başakşehir 33% BTTS, Hatayspor 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 46% for Başakşehir and 75% for Hatayspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Başakşehir keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Hatayspor in 62%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Başakşehir home games / Hatayspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Başakşehir play Hatayspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Başakşehir's recent matches and 33% of Hatayspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Başakşehir vs Hatayspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of Başakşehir's matches and 75% of Hatayspor's.
Do Başakşehir and Hatayspor tend to score early?
Başakşehir have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Hatayspor in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Başakşehir edge out Hatayspor 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Başakşehir beat Hatayspor 1-0 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu, Regular Season - 15, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Başakşehir 1.98 xG and Hatayspor 1.13 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Başakşehir fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Hatayspor landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Başakşehir attack 1.18 / defence 1.04 against Hatayspor attack 0.86 / defence 1.06, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Başakşehir 56% | Draw 23% | Hatayspor 21%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Başakşehir 40%, Hatayspor 74%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Başakşehir's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Hatayspor's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 54% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Başakşehir arrived the stronger side — 1.48 PPG against 0.82. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Başakşehir (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. Hatayspor (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.