Başakşehir 1-1 Fenerbahçe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Fenerbahçe (59%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Başakşehir face Fenerbahçe.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 15 as Başakşehir welcome Fenerbahçe to Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 6 December 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Başakşehir have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Başakşehir, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Başakşehir's home record at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Fenerbahçe — All Games: 6W 4D 0L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fenerbahçe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fenerbahçe away from home this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 away games — 2.10 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Fenerbahçe are 1.10 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The previous 8 encounters between these sides heavily favour Fenerbahçe, who boast 6 victories compared to 2 for Başakşehir.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 May 2025, ended 1–4 with Fenerbahçe winning.
It is worth noting that Fenerbahçe have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 6 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Başakşehir trading profile (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Fenerbahçe trading profile (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Başakşehir 56% versus Fenerbahçe 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Başakşehir 56% | Fenerbahçe 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 1.24 xG and Fenerbahçe 2.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 1.063 / defence 1.125 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.511 / defence 0.924. League average goals — home 1.266 / away 1.356. Fenerbahçe have an above-average attack strength of 1.511 — the away xG of 2.31 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 50 Başakşehir games / 50 Fenerbahçe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Başakşehir 17% | Draw 23% | Fenerbahçe 59%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 5.88 | Draw 4.35 | Fenerbahçe 1.69. The model has a clear lean to Fenerbahçe (59%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.55. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.55 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.24 / 2.31) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fenerbahçe as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.55 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: Başakşehir 70% | Fenerbahçe 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Dec 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Başakşehir 17% | Draw 23% | Fenerbahçe 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 66% | xG Başakşehir 1.24 / Fenerbahçe 2.31 • Poisson strength factors: Başakşehir attack 1.063 / def 1.125 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.511 / def 0.924 | league avg home 1.266 / away 1.356 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Başakşehir xG
Expected Goals
2.31
Fenerbahçe xG
66%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe kick off?
Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 6 December 2025 at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium.
What was the final score in Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe?
Başakşehir 1 - 1 Fenerbahçe.
Where is Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe being played?
The match is being played at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium.
What competition is Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe part of?
Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe?
Our statistical model gives Başakşehir a 17% chance of winning, Fenerbahçe a 59% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Başakşehir and Fenerbahçe will score (BTTS).
Will Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Fenerbahçe?
Record (8 meetings): Başakşehir 2W | Draws 0 | Fenerbahçe 6W.
What form are Başakşehir and Fenerbahçe in?
Başakşehir (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Fenerbahçe (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Başakşehir's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Fenerbahçe's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.24. The same calculation in reverse, Fenerbahçe's attack versus Başakşehir's defence, projects 2.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-2, at 9.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.3%), 0-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
17%
5.72
23%
4.27
59%
1.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.2%
Draw
0 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Başakşehir xG
Total xG
3.55
2.31
Fenerbahçe xG
5.72
17%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
1.69
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.95
Clean Sheet
10%
10.02
29%
3.47
Win to Nil
2%
57.35
17%
5.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 6.6 | 7.6 | 5.9 | 3.4 | 1.6 |
| 1 | 3.6 | 8.2 | 9.5 | 7.3 | 4.2 | 1.9 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 5.1 | 5.9 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Başakşehir and Fenerbahçe expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Başakşehir and 2.31 for Fenerbahçe, a combined total of 3.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Başakşehir's recent record stands at 20W 10D 20L from 50 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Başakşehir is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fenerbahçe, meanwhile, have gone 35W 11D 4L across 50 games — 2.32 PPG, with W-W-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Fenerbahçe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fenerbahçe by 0.92 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Başakşehir heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Başakşehir have managed 10W 7D 7L from 24 games — 1.54 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fenerbahçe's away record stands at 16W 6D 2L across 24 trips, a 2.25 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fenerbahçe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Başakşehir are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Fenerbahçe are on 2.42 scored and 1.04 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fenerbahçe in 62%.
Last 50 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Başakşehir
Blended
Fenerbahçe
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Başakşehir and Fenerbahçe in coming into this match?
Başakşehir have gone 20W 10D 20L in their last 50 games (1.40 PPG), while Fenerbahçe have gone 35W 11D 4L in their last 50 (2.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Başakşehir at home or Fenerbahçe away?
Fenerbahçe's away record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Başakşehir at home: 1.54 PPG; Fenerbahçe away: 2.25 PPG.
Have Başakşehir or Fenerbahçe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Fenerbahçe in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Sep 2023, when Fenerbahçe won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Başakşehir's record when hosting Fenerbahçe specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Başakşehir
1
Draws
7
Fenerbahçe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Fenerbahçe?
From 10 meetings on record, Başakşehir have won 2, Fenerbahçe have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Başakşehir and Fenerbahçe last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Fenerbahçe 3-1 Başakşehir.
Who has won more matches between Başakşehir and Fenerbahçe?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Başakşehir 58%, Fenerbahçe 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Başakşehir) and 62% (Fenerbahçe). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 62% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Başakşehir keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Fenerbahçe in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Başakşehir home games / Fenerbahçe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Başakşehir play Fenerbahçe?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Başakşehir's games and 58% of Fenerbahçe's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Başakşehir's matches and 62% of Fenerbahçe's.
Do Başakşehir and Fenerbahçe tend to score early?
Başakşehir have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Fenerbahçe in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Başakşehir and Fenerbahçe share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Başakşehir and Fenerbahçe finished level at 1-1 at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Başakşehir 1.24 xG and Fenerbahçe 2.31 xG, a combined 3.55. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Fenerbahçe landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Başakşehir attack 1.06 / defence 1.12 against Fenerbahçe attack 1.51 / defence 0.92, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Başakşehir 17% | Draw 23% | Fenerbahçe 59%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Başakşehir 56%, Fenerbahçe 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Başakşehir's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.32 PPG against 1.40. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.58 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.