Antalyaspor 1-2 Göztepe – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Göztepe (55%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Antalyaspor face Göztepe.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Göztepe travel to Corendon Airlines Park to take on Antalyaspor. The game is scheduled for Sunday 30 November 2025, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Antalyaspor stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Antalyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Antalyaspor have posted 3W 2D 5L at Corendon Airlines Park — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Göztepe — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Göztepe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Göztepe away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. Göztepe's 1.60 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Antalyaspor's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Antalyaspor, 2 for Göztepe and 2 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 19 Jan 2025, ended 0–1 with Göztepe winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Antalyaspor trading profile (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Göztepe trading profile (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antalyaspor 53% versus Göztepe 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antalyaspor 55% | Göztepe 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antalyaspor 1.03 xG and Göztepe 1.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antalyaspor attack 0.894 / defence 1.476 | Göztepe attack 0.921 / defence 0.903. League average goals — home 1.278 / away 1.361. Data: 49 Antalyaspor games / 49 Göztepe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antalyaspor 19% | Draw 26% | Göztepe 55%. Fair-value odds: Antalyaspor 5.26 | Draw 3.85 | Göztepe 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Göztepe (55%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Göztepe as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.88 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Antalyaspor 60% | Göztepe 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antalyaspor vs Göztepe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Corendon Airlines Park • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Nov 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antalyaspor 19% | Draw 26% | Göztepe 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 56% | xG Antalyaspor 1.03 / Göztepe 1.85 • Poisson strength factors: Antalyaspor attack 0.894 / def 1.476 | Göztepe attack 0.921 / def 0.903 | league avg home 1.278 / away 1.361 • Poisson stance: Göztepe (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Antalyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.85
Göztepe xG
56%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antalyaspor vs Göztepe kick off?
Antalyaspor vs Göztepe kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 30 November 2025 at Corendon Airlines Park.
What was the final score in Antalyaspor vs Göztepe?
Antalyaspor 1 - 2 Göztepe.
Where is Antalyaspor vs Göztepe being played?
The match is being played at Corendon Airlines Park.
What competition is Antalyaspor vs Göztepe part of?
Antalyaspor vs Göztepe is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Antalyaspor vs Göztepe?
Our statistical model gives Antalyaspor a 19% chance of winning, Göztepe a 55% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Göztepe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antalyaspor vs Göztepe?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Antalyaspor and Göztepe will score (BTTS).
Will Antalyaspor vs Göztepe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Göztepe?
Record (4 meetings): Antalyaspor 0W | Draws 2 | Göztepe 2W.
What form are Antalyaspor and Göztepe in?
Antalyaspor (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. Göztepe (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Antalyaspor's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Göztepe's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.03. The same calculation in reverse, Göztepe's attack versus Antalyaspor's defence, projects 1.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Göztepe Win
19%
5.26
26%
3.81
55%
1.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Antalyaspor xG
Total xG
2.88
1.85
Göztepe xG
5.26
19%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
1.83
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
16%
6.35
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
3%
33.40
20%
5.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 10.4 | 9.6 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.7 | 9.9 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 5.5 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antalyaspor vs Göztepe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Antalyaspor and Göztepe expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Antalyaspor and 1.85 for Göztepe, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Antalyaspor vs Göztepe?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Antalyaspor come into this having played 49 games, going 16W 10D 23L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-D. The sample for Antalyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Göztepe sit at 1.49 PPG from 49 outings (19W 16D 14L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Göztepe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Antalyaspor on 1.18 PPG, Göztepe on 1.49. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Antalyaspor's home form reads 11W 5D 8L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.58 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.18 PPG overall — Antalyaspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Göztepe have taken 1.00 points per game from 24 outings (6W 6D 12L). That's a step down from their 1.49 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Göztepe's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Antalyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Antalyaspor are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Göztepe are on 1.51 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antalyaspor
Blended
Göztepe
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antalyaspor and Göztepe in coming into this match?
Antalyaspor have gone 16W 10D 23L in their last 49 games (1.18 PPG), while Göztepe have gone 19W 16D 14L in their last 49 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antalyaspor at home or Göztepe away?
Antalyaspor's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antalyaspor at home: 1.58 PPG; Göztepe away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Antalyaspor or Göztepe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Antalyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Göztepe in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Antalyaspor and Göztepe runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Göztepe have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Jan 2022, when Göztepe won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Antalyaspor's record when hosting Göztepe specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Antalyaspor
2
Draws
4
Göztepe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Göztepe?
From 6 meetings on record, Antalyaspor have won 0, Göztepe have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Antalyaspor and Göztepe last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Göztepe 2-0 Antalyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Antalyaspor and Göztepe?
Göztepe have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Antalyaspor see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Göztepe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antalyaspor 62%, Göztepe 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Antalyaspor) and 50% (Göztepe). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Antalyaspor have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antalyaspor home games / Göztepe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antalyaspor play Göztepe?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Antalyaspor's games and 62% of Göztepe's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Antalyaspor vs Göztepe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Antalyaspor's matches and 50% of Göztepe's.
Do Antalyaspor and Göztepe tend to score early?
Antalyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Göztepe in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Göztepe edge out Antalyaspor 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Göztepe beat Antalyaspor 1-2 at Corendon Airlines Park, Regular Season - 14, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antalyaspor 1.03 xG and Göztepe 1.85 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antalyaspor attack 0.89 / defence 1.48 against Göztepe attack 0.92 / defence 0.90, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antalyaspor 19% | Draw 26% | Göztepe 55%, with Göztepe to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antalyaspor 55%, Göztepe 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antalyaspor's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Göztepe's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Antalyaspor 1.18 PPG, Göztepe 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Göztepe win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.