Antalyaspor 1-3 Beşiktaş – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Beşiktaş at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this Antalyaspor vs Beşiktaş fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Beşiktaş make the trip to Corendon Airlines Park to face Antalyaspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Saturday 8 November 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Antalyaspor have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Antalyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Corendon Airlines Park, Antalyaspor have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Beşiktaş's overall Süper Lig record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D L W D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Beşiktaş, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beşiktaş away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Antalyaspor, 1.40 for Beşiktaş — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Antalyaspor lead 2W to 3W over the last 8 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.1 goals per game across 8 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Jan 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Antalyaspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Beşiktaş goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antalyaspor 53% versus Beşiktaş 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antalyaspor 55% | Beşiktaş 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antalyaspor 0.97 xG and Beşiktaş 2.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antalyaspor attack 0.875 / defence 1.514 | Beşiktaş attack 1.081 / defence 0.855. League average goals — home 1.291 / away 1.296. Data: 47 Antalyaspor games / 47 Beşiktaş games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antalyaspor 14% | Draw 24% | Beşiktaş 62%. Fair-value odds: Antalyaspor 7.14 | Draw 4.17 | Beşiktaş 1.61. The model has a clear lean to Beşiktaş (62%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Beşiktaş are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.09 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: Antalyaspor 60% | Beşiktaş 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antalyaspor vs Beşiktaş | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Corendon Airlines Park • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Nov 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antalyaspor 14% | Draw 24% | Beşiktaş 62% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 56% | xG Antalyaspor 0.97 / Beşiktaş 2.12 • Poisson strength factors: Antalyaspor attack 0.875 / def 1.514 | Beşiktaş attack 1.081 / def 0.855 | league avg home 1.291 / away 1.296 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Antalyaspor xG
Expected Goals
2.12
Beşiktaş xG
56%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antalyaspor vs Beşiktaş kick off?
Antalyaspor vs Beşiktaş kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 8 November 2025 at Corendon Airlines Park.
What was the final score in Antalyaspor vs Beşiktaş?
Antalyaspor 1 - 3 Beşiktaş.
Where is Antalyaspor vs Beşiktaş being played?
The match is being played at Corendon Airlines Park.
What competition is Antalyaspor vs Beşiktaş part of?
Antalyaspor vs Beşiktaş is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Antalyaspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our statistical model gives Antalyaspor a 14% chance of winning, Beşiktaş a 62% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antalyaspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Antalyaspor and Beşiktaş will score (BTTS).
Will Antalyaspor vs Beşiktaş have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Beşiktaş?
Record (8 meetings): Antalyaspor 2W | Draws 3 | Beşiktaş 3W.
What form are Antalyaspor and Beşiktaş in?
Antalyaspor (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Beşiktaş (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Antalyaspor's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Beşiktaş's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.97. Flip it around — Beşiktaş's attack (1.08x) against Antalyaspor's defence (1.51x) — and the away total comes out at 2.12.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.6%. Close behind: 0-2 (10.3%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
14%
7.01
24%
4.21
62%
1.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
10.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Antalyaspor xG
Total xG
3.09
2.12
Beşiktaş xG
7.01
14%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
1.61
62%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
12%
8.35
38%
2.63
Win to Nil
2%
58.54
24%
4.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 9.7 | 10.3 | 7.3 | 3.9 | 1.6 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 2.1 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antalyaspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Antalyaspor and Beşiktaş expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Antalyaspor and 2.12 for Beşiktaş, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Antalyaspor vs Beşiktaş?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Antalyaspor come into this having played 47 games, going 16W 9D 22L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-W. The sample for Antalyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Beşiktaş sit at 1.68 PPG from 47 outings (22W 13D 12L), a run that reads D-L-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Beşiktaş is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Beşiktaş carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of Antalyaspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Antalyaspor's home form reads 11W 5D 7L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.65 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.21 PPG overall — Antalyaspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Beşiktaş have taken 1.39 points per game from 23 outings (7W 11D 5L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Antalyaspor are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Beşiktaş are on 1.64 scored and 1.09 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Beşiktaş in 64%.
Last 47 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antalyaspor
Blended
Beşiktaş
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antalyaspor and Beşiktaş in coming into this match?
Antalyaspor have gone 16W 9D 22L in their last 47 games (1.21 PPG), while Beşiktaş have gone 22W 13D 12L in their last 47 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antalyaspor at home or Beşiktaş away?
Antalyaspor's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antalyaspor at home: 1.65 PPG; Beşiktaş away: 1.39 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 10 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Beşiktaş have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Antalyaspor have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Beşiktaş — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Antalyaspor
3
Draws
5
Beşiktaş
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Beşiktaş?
From 10 meetings on record, Antalyaspor have won 2, Beşiktaş have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Antalyaspor and Beşiktaş last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2026, when Beşiktaş 4-2 Antalyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Antalyaspor and Beşiktaş?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Antalyaspor see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antalyaspor 61%, Beşiktaş 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Antalyaspor) and 30% (Beşiktaş).
On the defensive side: Beşiktaş in 30%; Antalyaspor have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antalyaspor home games / Beşiktaş away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antalyaspor play Beşiktaş?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Antalyaspor's games and 56% of Beşiktaş's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Antalyaspor vs Beşiktaş usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Antalyaspor's recent games and 30% of Beşiktaş's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Antalyaspor and Beşiktaş tend to score early?
Antalyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Beşiktaş in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Beşiktaş cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Antalyaspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beşiktaş beat Antalyaspor 1-3 at Corendon Airlines Park, Regular Season - 12, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antalyaspor 0.97 xG and Beşiktaş 2.12 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Beşiktaş outscored their 2.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antalyaspor attack 0.88 / defence 1.51 against Beşiktaş attack 1.08 / defence 0.85, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antalyaspor 14% | Draw 24% | Beşiktaş 62%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 62%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antalyaspor 55%, Beşiktaş 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antalyaspor's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Beşiktaş's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Beşiktaş arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.21. That form edge translated into the three points. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.35 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.