Antalyaspor 2-1 Adana Demirspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Antalyaspor at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Antalyaspor vs Adana Demirspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Adana Demirspor make the trip to Corendon Airlines Park to face Antalyaspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 37. The match kicks off on Friday 17 May 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Antalyaspor (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Antalyaspor's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 games at Corendon Airlines Park this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Adana Demirspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Adana Demirspor away from home this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Antalyaspor against 1.20 for Adana Demirspor. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 5 meetings, Adana Demirspor have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Antalyaspor's 0, with 1 draws in the mix.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Dec 2023, ended 1–2 with Adana Demirspor winning.
It is worth noting that Adana Demirspor have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
Antalyaspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Adana Demirspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antalyaspor 53% versus Adana Demirspor 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antalyaspor 46% | Adana Demirspor 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antalyaspor 1.23 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antalyaspor attack 0.802 / defence 0.944 | Adana Demirspor attack 0.932 / defence 0.976. League average goals — home 1.574 / away 1.254. Data: 72 Antalyaspor games / 72 Adana Demirspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antalyaspor 37% | Draw 32% | Adana Demirspor 31%. Fair-value odds: Antalyaspor 2.70 | Draw 3.12 | Adana Demirspor 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Antalyaspor as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Antalyaspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.34 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Antalyaspor 60% | Adana Demirspor 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antalyaspor vs Adana Demirspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Corendon Airlines Park • Kick-off: Friday 17 May 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antalyaspor 37% | Draw 32% | Adana Demirspor 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 49% | xG Antalyaspor 1.23 / Adana Demirspor 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Antalyaspor attack 0.802 / def 0.944 | Adana Demirspor attack 0.932 / def 0.976 | league avg home 1.574 / away 1.254 • Poisson stance: Antalyaspor (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Antalyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Adana Demirspor xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antalyaspor vs Adana Demirspor kick off?
Antalyaspor vs Adana Demirspor kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 17 May 2024 at Corendon Airlines Park.
What was the final score in Antalyaspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Antalyaspor 2 - 1 Adana Demirspor.
Where is Antalyaspor vs Adana Demirspor being played?
The match is being played at Corendon Airlines Park.
What competition is Antalyaspor vs Adana Demirspor part of?
Antalyaspor vs Adana Demirspor is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Antalyaspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Our statistical model gives Antalyaspor a 37% chance of winning, Adana Demirspor a 31% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Antalyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antalyaspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Antalyaspor and Adana Demirspor will score (BTTS).
Will Antalyaspor vs Adana Demirspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Adana Demirspor?
Record (5 meetings): Antalyaspor 0W | Draws 1 | Adana Demirspor 4W.
What form are Antalyaspor and Adana Demirspor in?
Antalyaspor (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Adana Demirspor (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Antalyaspor's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Adana Demirspor's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. Flip it around — Adana Demirspor's attack (0.93x) against Antalyaspor's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 72/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antalyaspor Win
37%
2.69
32%
3.13
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Antalyaspor xG
Total xG
2.34
1.10
Adana Demirspor xG
2.69
37%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
29%
3.43
Win to Nil
12%
8.10
9%
11.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 10.7 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.2 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.1 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antalyaspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Antalyaspor and Adana Demirspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Antalyaspor and 1.10 for Adana Demirspor, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Antalyaspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Antalyaspor's recent record stands at 22W 20D 30L from 72 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-L in the last five.
Adana Demirspor, meanwhile, have gone 30W 23D 19L across 72 games — 1.57 PPG, with D-D-L-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for Antalyaspor against 1.57 for Adana Demirspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Antalyaspor have managed 15W 11D 10L from 36 games — 1.56 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Adana Demirspor's away record stands at 9W 15D 12L across 36 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.57 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Adana Demirspor's season.
Attack vs Defence
Antalyaspor are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Adana Demirspor are on 1.76 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Adana Demirspor in 61%.
Last 72 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antalyaspor
Current Season
Adana Demirspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antalyaspor and Adana Demirspor in coming into this match?
Antalyaspor have gone 22W 20D 30L in their last 72 games (1.19 PPG), while Adana Demirspor have gone 30W 23D 19L in their last 72 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antalyaspor at home or Adana Demirspor away?
Antalyaspor's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antalyaspor at home: 1.56 PPG; Adana Demirspor away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Adana Demirspor won 0-3 on 17 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Antalyaspor have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Adana Demirspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Antalyaspor
2
Draws
4
Adana Demirspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Adana Demirspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Antalyaspor have won 2, Adana Demirspor have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Antalyaspor and Adana Demirspor last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2025, when Adana Demirspor 1-1 Antalyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Antalyaspor and Adana Demirspor?
Adana Demirspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Adana Demirspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antalyaspor 56%, Adana Demirspor 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Antalyaspor) and 53% (Adana Demirspor).
On the defensive side: Antalyaspor have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antalyaspor home games / Adana Demirspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antalyaspor play Adana Demirspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Antalyaspor's games and 69% of Adana Demirspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Antalyaspor vs Adana Demirspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Antalyaspor's recent games and 53% of Adana Demirspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Antalyaspor and Adana Demirspor tend to score early?
Antalyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Adana Demirspor in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Antalyaspor edge out Adana Demirspor 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antalyaspor beat Adana Demirspor 2-1 at Corendon Airlines Park, Regular Season - 37, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antalyaspor 1.23 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.10 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antalyaspor attack 0.80 / defence 0.94 against Adana Demirspor attack 0.93 / defence 0.98, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antalyaspor 37% | Draw 32% | Adana Demirspor 31%, with Antalyaspor to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antalyaspor 46%, Adana Demirspor 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antalyaspor's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Antalyaspor 1.19 PPG, Adana Demirspor 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Antalyaspor win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.