Alanyaspor 3-1 Kayserispor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Alanyaspor at 55% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Alanyaspor vs Kayserispor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 33 as Alanyaspor welcome Kayserispor to Alanya Oba Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 9 May 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Alanyaspor — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: D D L L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Alanyaspor's home record at Alanya Oba Stadium: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Kayserispor have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Kayserispor's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Alanyaspor at 0.80 PPG versus Kayserispor's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
Alanyaspor hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 5 wins from 9 previous encounters compared to 2 for Kayserispor, with 2 draws in between.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 2.9 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 13 Dec 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Alanyaspor and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 2.9 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Alanyaspor in-play and half-time data (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Kayserispor in-play and half-time data (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 57% versus Kayserispor 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 44% | Kayserispor 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.70 xG and Kayserispor 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 1.023 / defence 1.100 | Kayserispor attack 0.664 / defence 1.133. League average goals — home 1.466 / away 1.110. Data: 68 Alanyaspor games / 68 Kayserispor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 55% | Draw 30% | Kayserispor 14%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 1.82 | Draw 3.33 | Kayserispor 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Alanyaspor (55%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Alanyaspor are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 30% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.51 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: Alanyaspor 60% | Kayserispor 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alanyaspor vs Kayserispor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Alanya Oba Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 9 May 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alanyaspor 55% | Draw 30% | Kayserispor 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 49% | xG Alanyaspor 1.70 / Kayserispor 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Alanyaspor attack 1.023 / def 1.100 | Kayserispor attack 0.664 / def 1.133 | league avg home 1.466 / away 1.110 • Poisson stance: Alanyaspor (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Alanyaspor xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Kayserispor xG
49%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alanyaspor vs Kayserispor kick off?
Alanyaspor vs Kayserispor kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 9 May 2026 at Alanya Oba Stadium.
What was the final score in Alanyaspor vs Kayserispor?
Alanyaspor 3 - 1 Kayserispor.
Where is Alanyaspor vs Kayserispor being played?
The match is being played at Alanya Oba Stadium.
What competition is Alanyaspor vs Kayserispor part of?
Alanyaspor vs Kayserispor is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Alanyaspor vs Kayserispor?
Our statistical model gives Alanyaspor a 55% chance of winning, Kayserispor a 14% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Alanyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs Kayserispor?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Alanyaspor and Kayserispor will score (BTTS).
Will Alanyaspor vs Kayserispor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Kayserispor?
Record (9 meetings): Alanyaspor 5W | Draws 2 | Kayserispor 2W.
What form are Alanyaspor and Kayserispor in?
Alanyaspor (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-L-D. Kayserispor (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Alanyaspor's attack rating (1.02) and Kayserispor's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.70 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Kayserispor's attack versus Alanyaspor's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 68/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.4%), 2-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
55%
1.81
30%
3.29
14%
6.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Alanyaspor xG
Total xG
2.51
0.81
Kayserispor xG
1.81
55%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
6.97
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
18%
5.46
Win to Nil
25%
4.07
3%
38.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.8 | 11.2 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 9.5 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.6 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alanyaspor vs Kayserispor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Alanyaspor and Kayserispor expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 0.81 for Kayserispor, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Alanyaspor vs Kayserispor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Alanyaspor come into this having played 68 games, going 18W 25D 25L for 1.16 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-D.
On the other side, Kayserispor sit at 1.06 PPG from 68 outings (16W 24D 28L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Alanyaspor on 1.16 PPG, Kayserispor on 1.06. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Alanyaspor's home form reads 13W 10D 11L across 34 games on their own ground, a 1.44 PPG return.
Away from home, Kayserispor have taken 0.79 points per game from 34 outings (4W 15D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Alanyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Alanyaspor are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Kayserispor are on 1.01 scored and 1.69 conceded.
Last 68 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alanyaspor
Current Season
Kayserispor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alanyaspor and Kayserispor in coming into this match?
Alanyaspor have gone 18W 25D 25L in their last 68 games (1.16 PPG), while Kayserispor have gone 16W 24D 28L in their last 68 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alanyaspor at home or Kayserispor away?
Alanyaspor's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alanyaspor at home: 1.44 PPG; Kayserispor away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Alanyaspor and Kayserispor runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 May 2023, when Alanyaspor won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Alanyaspor's record when hosting Kayserispor specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Alanyaspor
2
Draws
2
Kayserispor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Kayserispor?
From 10 meetings on record, Alanyaspor have won 6, Kayserispor have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Alanyaspor and Kayserispor last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Alanyaspor 3-1 Kayserispor.
Who has won more matches between Alanyaspor and Kayserispor?
Alanyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Kayserispor see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alanyaspor 53%, Kayserispor 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Alanyaspor) and 41% (Kayserispor).
On the defensive side: Alanyaspor keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Kayserispor in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alanyaspor home games / Kayserispor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alanyaspor play Kayserispor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Alanyaspor's recent matches and 50% of Kayserispor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Alanyaspor vs Kayserispor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Alanyaspor's recent games and 41% of Kayserispor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alanyaspor and Kayserispor tend to score early?
Alanyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Kayserispor in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Alanyaspor cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Kayserispor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alanyaspor beat Kayserispor 3-1 at Alanya Oba Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 1.70 xG and Kayserispor 0.81 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Alanyaspor beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 1.02 / defence 1.10 against Kayserispor attack 0.66 / defence 1.13, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 55% | Draw 30% | Kayserispor 14%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 44%, Kayserispor 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alanyaspor's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Kayserispor's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Alanyaspor 1.16 PPG, Kayserispor 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Alanyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.35 average — above their attacking norm. Kayserispor (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.