Alanyaspor 0-1 Fenerbahçe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Fenerbahçe (41%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Alanyaspor face Fenerbahçe.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Fenerbahçe travel to Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu to take on Alanyaspor. The game is scheduled for Sunday 24 September 2023, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Alanyaspor have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W D D D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Alanyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Alanyaspor at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu.
Fenerbahçe — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Fenerbahçe have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Fenerbahçe have posted 8W 1D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Fenerbahçe are 1.50 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Alanyaspor have won 1, Fenerbahçe 3, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Mar 2023, ended 1–3 with Fenerbahçe winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Alanyaspor trading profile (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Fenerbahçe trading profile (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 52% versus Fenerbahçe 55%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Alanyaspor 65% | Fenerbahçe 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.17 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 1.101 / defence 1.043 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.090 / defence 0.762. League average goals — home 1.392 / away 1.321. Fenerbahçe's defence strength of 0.762 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 41 Alanyaspor games / 40 Fenerbahçe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 26% | Draw 33% | Fenerbahçe 41%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 3.85 | Draw 3.03 | Fenerbahçe 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fenerbahçe as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fenerbahçe offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 4.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates are neutral: Alanyaspor 40% | Fenerbahçe 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alanyaspor vs Fenerbahçe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Sep 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alanyaspor 26% | Draw 33% | Fenerbahçe 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 57% | xG Alanyaspor 1.17 / Fenerbahçe 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Alanyaspor attack 1.101 / def 1.043 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.090 / def 0.762 | league avg home 1.392 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Alanyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Fenerbahçe xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alanyaspor vs Fenerbahçe kick off?
Alanyaspor vs Fenerbahçe kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 24 September 2023 at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Alanyaspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Alanyaspor 0 - 1 Fenerbahçe.
Where is Alanyaspor vs Fenerbahçe being played?
The match is being played at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu.
What competition is Alanyaspor vs Fenerbahçe part of?
Alanyaspor vs Fenerbahçe is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Alanyaspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our statistical model gives Alanyaspor a 26% chance of winning, Fenerbahçe a 41% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Alanyaspor and Fenerbahçe will score (BTTS).
Will Alanyaspor vs Fenerbahçe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Fenerbahçe?
Record (4 meetings): Alanyaspor 1W | Draws 0 | Fenerbahçe 3W.
What form are Alanyaspor and Fenerbahçe in?
Alanyaspor (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-D-D-D-D. Fenerbahçe (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Alanyaspor's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Fenerbahçe's defensive record (0.76x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. The same calculation in reverse, Fenerbahçe's attack versus Alanyaspor's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 0-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
26%
3.87
33%
3.04
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Alanyaspor xG
Total xG
2.67
1.50
Fenerbahçe xG
3.87
26%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
22%
4.49
31%
3.21
Win to Nil
6%
17.37
13%
7.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 10.4 | 7.8 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.2 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.1 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alanyaspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Alanyaspor and Fenerbahçe expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 1.50 for Fenerbahçe, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Alanyaspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Alanyaspor come into this having played 40 games, going 11W 12D 17L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-D-D. It's still early in the season for Alanyaspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Fenerbahçe sit at 2.30 PPG from 40 outings (29W 5D 6L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Fenerbahçe, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Fenerbahçe carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.18 PPG clear of Alanyaspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Alanyaspor's home form reads 9W 5D 6L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.60 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.12 PPG overall — Alanyaspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Fenerbahçe have taken 2.25 points per game from 20 outings (14W 3D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fenerbahçe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Alanyaspor are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Fenerbahçe are on 2.38 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Defensively: Fenerbahçe in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alanyaspor
Early Season
Fenerbahçe
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alanyaspor and Fenerbahçe in coming into this match?
Alanyaspor have gone 11W 12D 17L in their last 40 games (1.12 PPG), while Fenerbahçe have gone 29W 5D 6L in their last 40 (2.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alanyaspor at home or Fenerbahçe away?
Fenerbahçe's away record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alanyaspor at home: 1.60 PPG; Fenerbahçe away: 2.25 PPG.
Have Alanyaspor or Fenerbahçe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Alanyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Fenerbahçe in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Sep 2022, when Fenerbahçe won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Alanyaspor's record when hosting Fenerbahçe specifically: 0W 0D 5L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Alanyaspor
2
Draws
7
Fenerbahçe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Fenerbahçe?
From 10 meetings on record, Alanyaspor have won 1, Fenerbahçe have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Alanyaspor and Fenerbahçe last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Alanyaspor 2-3 Fenerbahçe.
Who has won more matches between Alanyaspor and Fenerbahçe?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alanyaspor 45%, Fenerbahçe 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Alanyaspor and 65% for Fenerbahçe. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Alanyaspor keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alanyaspor home games / Fenerbahçe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alanyaspor play Fenerbahçe?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Alanyaspor's recent matches and 55% of Fenerbahçe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Alanyaspor vs Fenerbahçe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Alanyaspor's matches and 65% of Fenerbahçe's.
Do Alanyaspor and Fenerbahçe tend to score early?
Alanyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Fenerbahçe in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fenerbahçe edge out Alanyaspor 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fenerbahçe beat Alanyaspor 0-1 at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu, Regular Season - 6, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 1.17 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.50 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Alanyaspor fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 1.10 / defence 1.04 against Fenerbahçe attack 1.09 / defence 0.76, drawn from 41/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 26% | Draw 33% | Fenerbahçe 41%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 65%, Fenerbahçe 72%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alanyaspor's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.30 PPG against 1.12. Form held, and they took the win. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.55 scoring average — below par going forward. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.