Adana Demirspor 1-0 Giresunspor – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Giresunspor at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Adana Demirspor vs Giresunspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 16 as Adana Demirspor welcome Giresunspor to Yeni Adana Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Sunday 12 December 2021 at 10:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Adana Demirspor stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Adana Demirspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Adana Demirspor's home record at Yeni Adana Stadyumu: 3W 2D 2L from 7 Süper Lig appearances (1.57 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 0.71 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Giresunspor have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Giresunspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Giresunspor have posted 2W 2D 3L from 7 away outings — 1.14 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 7 away games (43%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.14 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Adana Demirspor) versus 1.80 (Giresunspor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Adana Demirspor's 29% rate and Giresunspor's 29% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
In-Play Data
Adana Demirspor trading profile (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Giresunspor trading profile (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Adana Demirspor 53% versus Giresunspor 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Adana Demirspor 47% | Giresunspor 27%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Adana Demirspor 0.82 xG and Giresunspor 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Adana Demirspor attack 0.822 / defence 0.996 | Giresunspor attack 0.918 / defence 0.842. League average goals — home 1.184 / away 1.113. Data: 15 Adana Demirspor games / 15 Giresunspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 27% | Draw 35% | Giresunspor 38%. Fair-value odds: Adana Demirspor 3.70 | Draw 2.86 | Giresunspor 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.84. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.84 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Giresunspor are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Giresunspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.84 combined xG gives a 28% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Adana Demirspor 29% | Giresunspor 29% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Adana Demirspor vs Giresunspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Yeni Adana Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Dec 2021, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 27% | Draw 35% | Giresunspor 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 37% | xG Adana Demirspor 0.82 / Giresunspor 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Adana Demirspor attack 0.822 / def 0.996 | Giresunspor attack 0.918 / def 0.842 | league avg home 1.184 / away 1.113 • Poisson stance: Giresunspor (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Adana Demirspor xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Giresunspor xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Adana Demirspor vs Giresunspor kick off?
Adana Demirspor vs Giresunspor kicked off at 10:30 on Sunday 12 December 2021 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Adana Demirspor vs Giresunspor?
Adana Demirspor 1 - 0 Giresunspor.
Where is Adana Demirspor vs Giresunspor being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What competition is Adana Demirspor vs Giresunspor part of?
Adana Demirspor vs Giresunspor is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Adana Demirspor vs Giresunspor?
Our statistical model gives Adana Demirspor a 27% chance of winning, Giresunspor a 38% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Giresunspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Adana Demirspor vs Giresunspor?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Adana Demirspor and Giresunspor will score (BTTS).
Will Adana Demirspor vs Giresunspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Adana Demirspor and Giresunspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Adana Demirspor and Giresunspor in?
Adana Demirspor (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Giresunspor (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Adana Demirspor's attack rating (0.82) and Giresunspor's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 0.82 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Giresunspor's attack versus Adana Demirspor's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Giresunspor Win
27%
3.68
35%
2.86
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Adana Demirspor xG
Total xG
1.84
1.02
Giresunspor xG
3.68
27%
Home win
2.86
35%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.70
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
44%
2.27
Win to Nil
10%
10.17
17%
5.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.9 | 16.2 | 8.2 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.3 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Adana Demirspor vs Giresunspor?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.7%.
How many goals are Adana Demirspor and Giresunspor expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Adana Demirspor and 1.02 for Giresunspor, a combined total of 1.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Adana Demirspor vs Giresunspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 15 outings, Adana Demirspor have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 5W 5D 5L record — L-W-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Adana Demirspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Giresunspor's form line: 5W 4D 6L from 15 games, 1.27 PPG, last five L-D-W-W-W. The sample for Giresunspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Adana Demirspor on 1.33 PPG, Giresunspor on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Adana Demirspor have posted 1.57 PPG from 7 outings (3W 2D 2L).
On the road, Giresunspor have gone 2W 2D 3L from 7 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Adana Demirspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Adana Demirspor are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Giresunspor are on 1.00 scored and 0.87 conceded.
Defensively: Giresunspor in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Adana Demirspor
Blended
Giresunspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Adana Demirspor and Giresunspor in coming into this match?
Adana Demirspor have gone 5W 5D 5L in their last 15 games (1.33 PPG), while Giresunspor have gone 5W 4D 6L in their last 15 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Adana Demirspor at home or Giresunspor away?
Adana Demirspor's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Adana Demirspor at home: 1.57 PPG; Giresunspor away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Adana Demirspor or Giresunspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Adana Demirspor have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Giresunspor in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 January 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Adana Demirspor's record when hosting Giresunspor specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Adana Demirspor
1
Draws
1
Giresunspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Adana Demirspor and Giresunspor?
From 4 meetings on record, Adana Demirspor have won 2, Giresunspor have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Adana Demirspor and Giresunspor last play each other?
They last met on 20 January 2023, when Adana Demirspor 1-1 Giresunspor.
Who has won more matches between Adana Demirspor and Giresunspor?
Adana Demirspor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Adana Demirspor see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Giresunspor see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Adana Demirspor 29% BTTS, Giresunspor 29%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 29% for Adana Demirspor and 29% for Giresunspor.
On the defensive side: Adana Demirspor keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Giresunspor in 43%; Adana Demirspor have failed to score in 43% of games; Giresunspor in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Adana Demirspor home games / Giresunspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Adana Demirspor play Giresunspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Adana Demirspor's recent matches and 29% of Giresunspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Adana Demirspor vs Giresunspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Adana Demirspor's recent games and 29% of Giresunspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Adana Demirspor defy the odds to beat Giresunspor 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Adana Demirspor beat Giresunspor 1-0 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu, Regular Season - 16, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Adana Demirspor 0.82 xG and Giresunspor 1.02 xG, a combined 1.84. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Giresunspor landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Adana Demirspor attack 0.82 / defence 1.00 against Giresunspor attack 0.92 / defence 0.84, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Adana Demirspor 27% | Draw 35% | Giresunspor 38%, with Giresunspor to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Adana Demirspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 56% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Adana Demirspor 47%, Giresunspor 27%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Giresunspor's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Adana Demirspor 1.33 PPG, Giresunspor 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Adana Demirspor win broke the near-deadlock. Giresunspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.