Adana Demirspor 1-2 Göztepe – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Göztepe at 41% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Adana Demirspor vs Göztepe encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

Adana Demirspor welcome Göztepe to Yeni Adana Stadyumu in Süper Lig (matchday 34). Kick-off is Sunday 4 May 2025 at 18:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Adana Demirspor — last 10 games: 0W 2D 8L, averaging 0.20 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

Adana Demirspor's home record over their last 10 home games: 1W 2D 7L (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Göztepe stand at 1W 6D 3L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Göztepe have gone 1W 3D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Göztepe — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (0.90 vs 0.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Adana Demirspor have won 1, Göztepe 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.3 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 7 Dec 2024, ended Adana Demirspor 1–3 Göztepe — a Göztepe win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Adana Demirspor in-play and half-time data (last 31 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 80%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%; they fail to score in 45% of games.

Göztepe in-play and half-time data (last 31 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Adana Demirspor 55% versus Göztepe 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Adana Demirspor 61% | Göztepe 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Adana Demirspor 1.04 xG and Göztepe 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Adana Demirspor attack 0.614 / defence 1.317 | Göztepe attack 0.782 / defence 1.021. League average goals — home 1.659 / away 1.196. Adana Demirspor's attack rating of 0.614 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.04. Göztepe's attack rating of 0.782 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.23. Adana Demirspor's defence rating of 1.317 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Göztepe's projected output up. Data: built from Adana Demirspor's last 69 games and Göztepe's last 31.

Result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 31% | Draw 28% | Göztepe 41%. Fair-value odds: Adana Demirspor 3.23 | Draw 3.52 | Göztepe 2.46. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Göztepe as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Göztepe offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.27 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 4.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.

Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Adana Demirspor 30% (last 10 home games) | Göztepe 70% (last 10 away games).

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