Uthai Thani 1-1 Sukhothai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sukhothai FC at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Uthai Thani vs Sukhothai FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 5 as Uthai Thani welcome Sukhothai FC to Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 20 September 2025 at 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Uthai Thani have gone 0W 5D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Uthai Thani have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Uthai Thani's home record at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Uthai Thani are significantly better at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Sukhothai FC — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Sukhothai FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Sukhothai FC have gone 0W 6D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Sukhothai FC's 1.00 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Uthai Thani's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Uthai Thani: 3 wins from 4 previous clashes against 0 for Sukhothai FC, with 1 draws across those contests.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Jan 2025, ended 3–0 with Uthai Thani winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Uthai Thani and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Uthai Thani in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Sukhothai FC in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Uthai Thani 56% versus Sukhothai FC 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Uthai Thani 44% | Sukhothai FC 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Uthai Thani 0.98 xG and Sukhothai FC 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Uthai Thani attack 0.756 / defence 1.151 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.804 / defence 0.854. League average goals — home 1.518 / away 1.208. Uthai Thani's attack strength of 0.756 is below the league average — the 0.98 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 34 Uthai Thani games / 34 Sukhothai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Uthai Thani 30% | Draw 34% | Sukhothai FC 37%. Fair-value odds: Uthai Thani 3.33 | Draw 2.94 | Sukhothai FC 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Uthai Thani dominate the H2H record, yet Sukhothai FC are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sukhothai FC at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sukhothai FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.10 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Uthai Thani 60% | Sukhothai FC 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Uthai Thani vs Sukhothai FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Sep 2025, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Uthai Thani 30% | Draw 34% | Sukhothai FC 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 44% | xG Uthai Thani 0.98 / Sukhothai FC 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Uthai Thani attack 0.756 / def 1.151 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.804 / def 0.854 | league avg home 1.518 / away 1.208 • Poisson stance: Sukhothai FC (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Uthai Thani xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Sukhothai FC xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Uthai Thani vs Sukhothai FC kick off?
Uthai Thani vs Sukhothai FC kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 20 September 2025 at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium.
What was the final score in Uthai Thani vs Sukhothai FC?
Uthai Thani 1 - 1 Sukhothai FC.
Where is Uthai Thani vs Sukhothai FC being played?
The match is being played at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium.
What competition is Uthai Thani vs Sukhothai FC part of?
Uthai Thani vs Sukhothai FC is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Uthai Thani vs Sukhothai FC?
Our statistical model gives Uthai Thani a 30% chance of winning, Sukhothai FC a 37% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Sukhothai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Uthai Thani vs Sukhothai FC?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Uthai Thani and Sukhothai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Uthai Thani vs Sukhothai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Uthai Thani and Sukhothai FC?
Record (4 meetings): Uthai Thani 3W | Draws 1 | Sukhothai FC 0W.
What form are Uthai Thani and Sukhothai FC in?
Uthai Thani (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Sukhothai FC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Uthai Thani's attack at 0.76x the league average against Sukhothai FC's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 0.98 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sukhothai FC's attack versus Uthai Thani's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 0-1 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sukhothai FC Win
30%
3.38
34%
2.96
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Uthai Thani xG
Total xG
2.10
1.12
Sukhothai FC xG
3.38
30%
Home win
2.96
34%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
38%
2.66
Win to Nil
10%
10.35
14%
7.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 13.7 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Uthai Thani vs Sukhothai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Uthai Thani and Sukhothai FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Uthai Thani and 1.12 for Sukhothai FC, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Uthai Thani vs Sukhothai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Uthai Thani come into this having played 34 games, going 9W 11D 14L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Uthai Thani, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Sukhothai FC sit at 1.18 PPG from 34 outings (10W 10D 14L), a run that reads D-L-W-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Sukhothai FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Uthai Thani on 1.12 PPG, Sukhothai FC on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Uthai Thani's home form reads 6W 7D 4L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.47 PPG return.
Away from home, Sukhothai FC have taken 0.65 points per game from 17 outings (1W 8D 8L). That's a step down from their 1.18 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sukhothai FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Uthai Thani come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Uthai Thani are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Sukhothai FC are on 1.44 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sukhothai FC in 62%.
Last 34 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Uthai Thani
Early Season
Sukhothai FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Uthai Thani and Sukhothai FC in coming into this match?
Uthai Thani have gone 9W 11D 14L in their last 34 games (1.12 PPG), while Sukhothai FC have gone 10W 10D 14L in their last 34 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Uthai Thani at home or Sukhothai FC away?
Uthai Thani's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Uthai Thani at home: 1.47 PPG; Sukhothai FC away: 0.65 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Jan 2025, when Uthai Thani won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Uthai Thani's record when hosting Sukhothai FC specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Uthai Thani
3
Draws
0
Sukhothai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Uthai Thani and Sukhothai FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Uthai Thani have won 3, Sukhothai FC have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Uthai Thani and Sukhothai FC last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Sukhothai FC 1-1 Uthai Thani.
Who has won more matches between Uthai Thani and Sukhothai FC?
Uthai Thani have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Uthai Thani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
Sukhothai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Uthai Thani 59%, Sukhothai FC 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Uthai Thani) and 47% (Sukhothai FC).
On the defensive side: Sukhothai FC in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Uthai Thani home games / Sukhothai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Uthai Thani play Sukhothai FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Uthai Thani's games and 59% of Sukhothai FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Uthai Thani vs Sukhothai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Uthai Thani's recent games and 47% of Sukhothai FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Uthai Thani and Sukhothai FC tend to score early?
Uthai Thani have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Sukhothai FC in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Uthai Thani and Sukhothai FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Uthai Thani and Sukhothai FC finished level at 1-1 at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Uthai Thani 0.98 xG and Sukhothai FC 1.12 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Uthai Thani attack 0.76 / defence 1.15 against Sukhothai FC attack 0.80 / defence 0.85, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Uthai Thani 30% | Draw 34% | Sukhothai FC 37%, with Sukhothai FC to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Uthai Thani 44%, Sukhothai FC 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Uthai Thani's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Sukhothai FC's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Uthai Thani 1.12 PPG, Sukhothai FC 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sukhothai FC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.