Uthai Thani 4-1 Rayong FC – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Uthai Thani at 59% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Uthai Thani face Rayong FC.

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Match Analysis

Uthai Thani host Rayong FC at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium in Thai League 1 (matchday 20). Kick-off is Saturday 18 April 2026 at 14:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Uthai Thani stand at 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Uthai Thani at home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Uthai Thani are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Rayong FC — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

Rayong FC away from home: 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Uthai Thani 1.00 PPG, Rayong FC 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H

The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Uthai Thani, 1 for Rayong FC and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.0 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 27 Sep 2025, ended Uthai Thani 1–2 Rayong FC — a Rayong FC win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Uthai Thani in-play tendencies (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).

Rayong FC in-play tendencies (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 25 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 48%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Uthai Thani 58% and Rayong FC 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Uthai Thani 47% | Rayong FC 60%). Note also that Rayong FC surrender HT leads in 31% of cases while Uthai Thani recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 40% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Uthai Thani 1.99 xG and Rayong FC 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Uthai Thani attack 1.058 / defence 0.900 | Rayong FC attack 0.962 / defence 1.284. League average goals — home 1.466 / away 1.100. Rayong FC's defence rating of 1.284 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Uthai Thani's projected output up. Data: built from Uthai Thani's last 55 games and Rayong FC's last 55.

Result probabilities: Uthai Thani 59% | Draw 25% | Rayong FC 15%. Fair-value odds: Uthai Thani 1.68 | Draw 3.94 | Rayong FC 6.59. The model has a clear lean to Uthai Thani (59%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Uthai Thani as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.94 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Uthai Thani's last 10 home games and Rayong FC's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Uthai Thani 50% (last 10 home games) | Rayong FC 80% (last 10 away games).

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