Suphanburi 1-2 Police Tero – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Suphanburi at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Suphanburi vs Police Tero fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Police Tero make the trip to Suphanburi Municipality Stadium to face Suphanburi in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 27. The match kicks off on Saturday 16 April 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Current Form
Suphanburi's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W L L D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Suphanburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Suphanburi Municipality Stadium, Suphanburi have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Police Tero have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 1W 7D 2L. Last five: D D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Police Tero, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Police Tero's away record: 2W 5D 3L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Suphanburi lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Nov 2021, ended 0–1 with Police Tero winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Suphanburi — key trading statistics (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Police Tero — key trading statistics (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Suphanburi 62% versus Police Tero 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suphanburi 54% | Police Tero 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suphanburi 1.14 xG and Police Tero 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suphanburi attack 0.997 / defence 1.258 | Police Tero attack 0.762 / defence 1.100. League average goals — home 1.043 / away 1.160. Data: 26 Suphanburi games / 26 Police Tero games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Suphanburi 35% | Draw 32% | Police Tero 33%. Fair-value odds: Suphanburi 2.86 | Draw 3.12 | Police Tero 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Suphanburi as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Suphanburi if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.26 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Suphanburi 60% | Police Tero 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suphanburi vs Police Tero | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Suphanburi Municipality Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Apr 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suphanburi 35% | Draw 32% | Police Tero 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 48% | xG Suphanburi 1.14 / Police Tero 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Suphanburi attack 0.997 / def 1.258 | Police Tero attack 0.762 / def 1.100 | league avg home 1.043 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: Suphanburi (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Suphanburi xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Police Tero xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Suphanburi vs Police Tero kick off?
Suphanburi vs Police Tero kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 16 April 2022 at Suphanburi Municipality Stadium.
What was the final score in Suphanburi vs Police Tero?
Suphanburi 1 - 2 Police Tero.
Where is Suphanburi vs Police Tero being played?
The match is being played at Suphanburi Municipality Stadium.
What competition is Suphanburi vs Police Tero part of?
Suphanburi vs Police Tero is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Suphanburi vs Police Tero?
Our statistical model gives Suphanburi a 35% chance of winning, Police Tero a 33% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Suphanburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suphanburi vs Police Tero?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Suphanburi and Police Tero will score (BTTS).
Will Suphanburi vs Police Tero have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Suphanburi and Police Tero?
Record (1 meetings): Suphanburi 0W | Draws 0 | Police Tero 1W.
What form are Suphanburi and Police Tero in?
Suphanburi (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-D-D. Police Tero (all comps): 1W-7D-2L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Suphanburi's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Police Tero's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. Flip it around — Police Tero's attack (0.76x) against Suphanburi's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Suphanburi Win
35%
2.89
32%
3.08
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Suphanburi xG
Total xG
2.26
1.11
Police Tero xG
2.89
35%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
32%
3.14
Win to Nil
11%
8.79
11%
9.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 11.7 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.3 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 7.6 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Suphanburi vs Police Tero?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Suphanburi and Police Tero expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Suphanburi and 1.11 for Police Tero, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Suphanburi vs Police Tero?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Suphanburi's recent record stands at 7W 6D 13L from 26 games, a 1.04 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Suphanburi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Police Tero, meanwhile, have gone 6W 12D 8L across 26 games — 1.15 PPG, with D-D-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Police Tero is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.04 PPG for Suphanburi against 1.15 for Police Tero. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Suphanburi have managed 4W 4D 4L from 12 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Police Tero's away record stands at 2W 5D 5L across 12 trips, a 0.92 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Suphanburi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Suphanburi are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Police Tero are on 1.12 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Suphanburi have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 26 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suphanburi
Blended
Police Tero
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Suphanburi and Police Tero in coming into this match?
Suphanburi have gone 7W 6D 13L in their last 26 games (1.04 PPG), while Police Tero have gone 6W 12D 8L in their last 26 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Suphanburi at home or Police Tero away?
Suphanburi's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Suphanburi at home: 1.33 PPG; Police Tero away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Suphanburi
0
Draws
2
Police Tero
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Suphanburi and Police Tero?
From 2 meetings on record, Suphanburi have won 0, Police Tero have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Suphanburi and Police Tero last play each other?
They last met on 16 April 2022, when Suphanburi 1-2 Police Tero.
Who has won more matches between Suphanburi and Police Tero?
Police Tero have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Suphanburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Police Tero are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Suphanburi 67%, Police Tero 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Suphanburi) and 42% (Police Tero).
On the defensive side: Police Tero in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suphanburi home games / Police Tero away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Suphanburi play Police Tero?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Suphanburi's games and 50% of Police Tero's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Suphanburi vs Police Tero usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Suphanburi's recent games and 42% of Police Tero's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Suphanburi and Police Tero tend to score early?
Suphanburi have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Police Tero in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Police Tero defy the odds to beat Suphanburi 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Police Tero beat Suphanburi 1-2 at Suphanburi Municipality Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suphanburi 1.14 xG and Police Tero 1.11 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Police Tero outscored their 1.11 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suphanburi attack 1.00 / defence 1.26 against Police Tero attack 0.76 / defence 1.10, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Suphanburi 35% | Draw 32% | Police Tero 33%, with Suphanburi to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Police Tero win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suphanburi 54%, Police Tero 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Suphanburi's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Police Tero's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Suphanburi 1.04 PPG, Police Tero 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Police Tero win broke the near-deadlock. Police Tero (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.