Suphanburi 2-2 Chiangmai United – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Chiangmai United at 36%, yet in-form Suphanburi provide a compelling counter-argument — this Suphanburi vs Chiangmai United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Suphanburi and Chiangmai United meet at Suphanburi Municipality Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 11 September 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Suphanburi's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 0W 1D 0L from 1 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 0.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Suphanburi have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Chiangmai United have collected 0.00 PPG across 1 Thai League 1 outings this season: 0W 0D 1L. Last five: L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Chiangmai United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form ledger tips toward Suphanburi. A 1.00 PPG lead over Chiangmai United (1.00 vs 0.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suphanburi 1.16 xG and Chiangmai United 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suphanburi attack 0.977 / defence 1.150 | Chiangmai United attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.036 / away 1.353. Data: 1 Suphanburi games / 1 Chiangmai United games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Suphanburi 29% | Draw 35% | Chiangmai United 36%. Fair-value odds: Suphanburi 3.45 | Draw 2.86 | Chiangmai United 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chiangmai United at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Suphanburi (1.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chiangmai United if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.49 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suphanburi vs Chiangmai United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Suphanburi Municipality Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Sep 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suphanburi 29% | Draw 35% | Chiangmai United 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 54% | xG Suphanburi 1.16 / Chiangmai United 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Suphanburi attack 0.977 / def 1.150 | Chiangmai United attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.036 / away 1.353 • Poisson stance: Chiangmai United (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Suphanburi xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Chiangmai United xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Suphanburi vs Chiangmai United kick off?
Suphanburi vs Chiangmai United kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 11 September 2021 at Suphanburi Municipality Stadium.
What was the final score in Suphanburi vs Chiangmai United?
Suphanburi 2 - 2 Chiangmai United.
Where is Suphanburi vs Chiangmai United being played?
The match is being played at Suphanburi Municipality Stadium.
What competition is Suphanburi vs Chiangmai United part of?
Suphanburi vs Chiangmai United is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Suphanburi vs Chiangmai United?
Our statistical model gives Suphanburi a 29% chance of winning, Chiangmai United a 36% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Chiangmai United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suphanburi vs Chiangmai United?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Suphanburi and Chiangmai United will score (BTTS).
Will Suphanburi vs Chiangmai United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Suphanburi and Chiangmai United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Suphanburi and Chiangmai United in?
Suphanburi (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 D. Chiangmai United (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Suphanburi's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Chiangmai United's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. Flip it around — Chiangmai United's attack (0.85x) against Suphanburi's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chiangmai United Win
29%
3.46
35%
2.88
36%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Suphanburi xG
Total xG
2.49
1.32
Chiangmai United xG
3.46
29%
Home win
2.88
35%
Draw
2.74
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
27%
3.75
31%
3.20
Win to Nil
8%
13.00
11%
8.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 11.0 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.8 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.5 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Suphanburi vs Chiangmai United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Suphanburi and Chiangmai United expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Suphanburi and 1.32 for Chiangmai United, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Suphanburi vs Chiangmai United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 1 outings, Suphanburi have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 0W 1D 0L record — D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Suphanburi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Chiangmai United's form line: 0W 0D 1L from 1 games, 0.00 PPG, last five L. It's still early in the season for Chiangmai United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Suphanburi are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Chiangmai United.
Attack vs Defence
Suphanburi are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Chiangmai United are on 1.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Suphanburi have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Chiangmai United in 100%.
Defensively: Suphanburi have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suphanburi
Early Season
Chiangmai United
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Suphanburi and Chiangmai United in coming into this match?
Suphanburi have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 games (1.00 PPG), while Chiangmai United have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
Have Suphanburi or Chiangmai United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Suphanburi have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Chiangmai United in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Suphanburi
1
Draws
0
Chiangmai United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Suphanburi and Chiangmai United?
From 2 meetings on record, Suphanburi have won 1, Chiangmai United have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Suphanburi and Chiangmai United last play each other?
They last met on 2 February 2022, when Chiangmai United 1-2 Suphanburi.
Who has won more matches between Suphanburi and Chiangmai United?
Suphanburi have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suphanburi home games / Chiangmai United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Suphanburi play Chiangmai United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Suphanburi's recent matches and 100% of Chiangmai United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Suphanburi vs Chiangmai United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Suphanburi's recent games and 100% of Chiangmai United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Suphanburi and Chiangmai United tend to score early?
Suphanburi have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Chiangmai United in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Suphanburi and Chiangmai United share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Suphanburi and Chiangmai United finished level at 2-2 at Suphanburi Municipality Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suphanburi 1.16 xG and Chiangmai United 1.32 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Suphanburi beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suphanburi attack 0.98 / defence 1.15 against Chiangmai United attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Suphanburi 29% | Draw 35% | Chiangmai United 36%, with Chiangmai United to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suphanburi 0%, Chiangmai United 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Suphanburi arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Suphanburi scored 2 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Chiangmai United scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.