Suphanburi 0-2 BG Pathum United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates BG Pathum United at 35% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Suphanburi vs BG Pathum United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
BG Pathum United make the trip to Suphanburi Municipality Stadium to face Suphanburi in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Saturday 16 October 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Suphanburi (all games): 1W 4D 2L across 7 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 1.14 goals per game and conceding 1.29 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 71% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Suphanburi have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Suphanburi at Suphanburi Municipality Stadium this season: 1W 3D 0L from 4 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Suphanburi are significantly better at Suphanburi Municipality Stadium than their overall form suggests.
BG Pathum United have collected 1.67 PPG across 6 Thai League 1 outings this season: 3W 1D 2L. Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.17 per game is modest, conceding 1.33 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. BG Pathum United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
BG Pathum United arrive in superior form — a 0.67 PPG advantage (1.67 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading Data
Suphanburi goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (6 games): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games.
BG Pathum United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (6 games): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Suphanburi 83% and BG Pathum United 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suphanburi 67% | BG Pathum United 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suphanburi 1.30 xG and BG Pathum United 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suphanburi attack 1.107 / defence 1.239 | BG Pathum United attack 0.819 / defence 1.100. League average goals — home 1.069 / away 1.324. Data: 7 Suphanburi games / 6 BG Pathum United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Suphanburi 33% | Draw 33% | BG Pathum United 35%. Fair-value odds: Suphanburi 3.03 | Draw 3.03 | BG Pathum United 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates BG Pathum United as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on BG Pathum United if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Suphanburi 100% | BG Pathum United 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suphanburi vs BG Pathum United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Suphanburi Municipality Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Oct 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suphanburi 33% | Draw 33% | BG Pathum United 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 57% | xG Suphanburi 1.30 / BG Pathum United 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Suphanburi attack 1.107 / def 1.239 | BG Pathum United attack 0.819 / def 1.100 | league avg home 1.069 / away 1.324 • Poisson stance: BG Pathum United (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Suphanburi xG
Expected Goals
1.34
BG Pathum United xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Suphanburi vs BG Pathum United kick off?
Suphanburi vs BG Pathum United kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 16 October 2021 at Suphanburi Municipality Stadium.
What was the final score in Suphanburi vs BG Pathum United?
Suphanburi 0 - 2 BG Pathum United.
Where is Suphanburi vs BG Pathum United being played?
The match is being played at Suphanburi Municipality Stadium.
What competition is Suphanburi vs BG Pathum United part of?
Suphanburi vs BG Pathum United is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Suphanburi vs BG Pathum United?
Our statistical model gives Suphanburi a 33% chance of winning, BG Pathum United a 35% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making BG Pathum United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suphanburi vs BG Pathum United?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Suphanburi and BG Pathum United will score (BTTS).
Will Suphanburi vs BG Pathum United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Suphanburi and BG Pathum United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Suphanburi and BG Pathum United in?
Suphanburi (all comps): 1W-4D-2L in 7 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.14 / GA 1.29 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. BG Pathum United (all comps): 3W-1D-2L in 6 | 1.67 PPG | GF 1.17 / GA 1.33 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Suphanburi's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against BG Pathum United's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. Flip it around — BG Pathum United's attack (0.82x) against Suphanburi's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 7/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
BG Pathum United Win
33%
3.07
33%
3.05
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Suphanburi xG
Total xG
2.65
1.34
BG Pathum United xG
3.07
33%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
26%
3.83
27%
3.68
Win to Nil
9%
11.76
9%
10.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 9.5 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.4 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.1 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Suphanburi vs BG Pathum United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Suphanburi and BG Pathum United expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Suphanburi and 1.34 for BG Pathum United, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Suphanburi vs BG Pathum United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 6 outings, Suphanburi have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 1W 3D 2L record — D-W-L-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Suphanburi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
BG Pathum United's form line: 3W 1D 2L from 6 games, 1.67 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for BG Pathum United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, BG Pathum United are the form team by 0.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Suphanburi.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Suphanburi are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; BG Pathum United are on 1.17 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Suphanburi have seen both teams score in 83% of their recent games.
Last 6 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suphanburi
Early Season
BG Pathum United
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Suphanburi and BG Pathum United in coming into this match?
Suphanburi have gone 1W 3D 2L in their last 6 games (1.00 PPG), while BG Pathum United have gone 3W 1D 2L in their last 6 (1.67 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Suphanburi
0
Draws
2
BG Pathum United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Suphanburi and BG Pathum United?
From 2 meetings on record, Suphanburi have won 0, BG Pathum United have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Suphanburi and BG Pathum United last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2022, when BG Pathum United 2-0 Suphanburi.
Who has won more matches between Suphanburi and BG Pathum United?
BG Pathum United have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Suphanburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
BG Pathum United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 83% for Suphanburi, 50% for BG Pathum United — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Suphanburi) and 50% (BG Pathum United). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: BG Pathum United in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suphanburi home games / BG Pathum United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Suphanburi play BG Pathum United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Suphanburi's games and 50% of BG Pathum United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Suphanburi vs BG Pathum United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Suphanburi's matches and 50% of BG Pathum United's.
Do Suphanburi and BG Pathum United tend to score early?
Suphanburi have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, BG Pathum United in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
BG Pathum United cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Suphanburi.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
BG Pathum United beat Suphanburi 0-2 at Suphanburi Municipality Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suphanburi 1.30 xG and BG Pathum United 1.34 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Suphanburi fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suphanburi attack 1.11 / defence 1.24 against BG Pathum United attack 0.82 / defence 1.10, drawn from 7/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Suphanburi 33% | Draw 33% | BG Pathum United 35%, with BG Pathum United to win its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suphanburi 67%, BG Pathum United 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Suphanburi's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did not.
BG Pathum United's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, BG Pathum United arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Suphanburi managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward. BG Pathum United scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.