Sukhothai FC 1-3 Uthai Thani – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Sukhothai FC at 66% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Sukhothai FC face Uthai Thani.

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Analysis & Preview

Uthai Thani travel to Thung Talay Luang Stadium to take on Sukhothai FC in Thai League 1 (matchday 26). The game is scheduled for Saturday 27 April 2024 at 14:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Sukhothai FC — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Sukhothai FC have gone 6W 1D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Sukhothai FC are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Across their last 10 games, Uthai Thani have recorded 1W 5D 4L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Uthai Thani's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Sukhothai FC at 1.10 PPG versus Uthai Thani's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H Record

The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Sukhothai FC, 0 for Uthai Thani and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data have been tight, averaging just 0.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 1 Dec 2023, ended Sukhothai FC 0–0 Uthai Thani — a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Profile

Sukhothai FC in-play tendencies (last 25 games, 12 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

Uthai Thani in-play tendencies (last 25 games, 12 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 60%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 32% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sukhothai FC 64% and Uthai Thani 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sukhothai FC 68% | Uthai Thani 52%). Note also that Uthai Thani surrender HT leads in 60% of cases while Sukhothai FC recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 46% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sukhothai FC 2.22 xG and Uthai Thani 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sukhothai FC attack 1.015 / defence 0.907 | Uthai Thani attack 0.887 / defence 1.284. League average goals — home 1.701 / away 1.172. Uthai Thani's defence rating of 1.284 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Sukhothai FC's projected output up. Data: built from Sukhothai FC's last 55 games and Uthai Thani's last 25.

Result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 66% | Draw 20% | Uthai Thani 14%. Fair-value odds: Sukhothai FC 1.52 | Draw 5.08 | Uthai Thani 6.96. The model has a clear lean to Sukhothai FC (66%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Sukhothai FC as the most likely outcome at 66% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.16 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Sukhothai FC's last 10 home games and Uthai Thani's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sukhothai FC 70% (last 10 home games) | Uthai Thani 50% (last 10 away games).

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