Sukhothai FC 2-1 Port FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Port FC (46%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Sukhothai FC face Port FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sukhothai FC and Port FC meet at Thalay Luang Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 3. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 20 September 2026 at 11:30 UTC.
Current Form
Sukhothai FC's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Sukhothai FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sukhothai FC's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Thalay Luang Stadium this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Sukhothai FC are significantly better at Thalay Luang Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Port FC have collected 2.60 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 8W 2D 0L. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Port FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Port FC's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Port FC arrive in superior form — a 1.90 PPG advantage (2.60 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Sukhothai FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Port FC in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Sukhothai FC lead 3W to 5W over the last 8 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 8 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 10 Jan 2026, ended 0–5 with Port FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Sukhothai FC — key trading statistics (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Port FC — key trading statistics (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sukhothai FC 47% versus Port FC 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sukhothai FC 38% | Port FC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sukhothai FC 1.22 xG and Port FC 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sukhothai FC attack 0.997 / defence 1.134 | Port FC attack 1.140 / defence 0.963. League average goals — home 1.272 / away 1.228. Data: 32 Sukhothai FC games / 32 Port FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 29% | Draw 25% | Port FC 46%. Fair-value odds: Sukhothai FC 3.45 | Draw 4.00 | Port FC 2.17. Port FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Port FC as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Port FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sukhothai FC 60% | Port FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sukhothai FC vs Port FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Thalay Luang Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Sep 2026, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 29% | Draw 25% | Port FC 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Sukhothai FC 1.22 / Port FC 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Sukhothai FC attack 0.997 / def 1.134 | Port FC attack 1.140 / def 0.963 | league avg home 1.272 / away 1.228 • Poisson stance: Port FC (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Sukhothai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Port FC xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sukhothai FC vs Port FC kick off?
Sukhothai FC vs Port FC kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 20 September 2026 at Thalay Luang Stadium.
What was the final score in Sukhothai FC vs Port FC?
Sukhothai FC 2 - 1 Port FC.
Where is Sukhothai FC vs Port FC being played?
The match is being played at Thalay Luang Stadium.
What competition is Sukhothai FC vs Port FC part of?
Sukhothai FC vs Port FC is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Sukhothai FC vs Port FC?
Our statistical model gives Sukhothai FC a 29% chance of winning, Port FC a 46% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sukhothai FC vs Port FC?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Sukhothai FC and Port FC will score (BTTS).
Will Sukhothai FC vs Port FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Port FC?
Record (8 meetings): Sukhothai FC 3W | Draws 0 | Port FC 5W.
What form are Sukhothai FC and Port FC in?
Sukhothai FC (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Port FC (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Sukhothai FC's attack at 1.00x the league average against Port FC's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Port FC's attack (1.14x) against Sukhothai FC's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.59.
The sample (32/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
29%
3.41
25%
4.04
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Sukhothai FC xG
Total xG
2.81
1.59
Port FC xG
3.41
29%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
20%
4.89
30%
3.39
Win to Nil
6%
16.65
14%
7.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 9.6 | 7.6 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.7 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.1 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sukhothai FC vs Port FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Sukhothai FC and Port FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Sukhothai FC and 1.59 for Port FC, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Sukhothai FC vs Port FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sukhothai FC's recent record stands at 6W 10D 16L from 32 games, a 0.88 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Sukhothai FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Port FC, meanwhile, have gone 20W 6D 6L across 32 games — 2.06 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Port FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Port FC by 1.18 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sukhothai FC heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Sukhothai FC have managed 6W 6D 4L from 16 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.88 PPG overall — Sukhothai FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Port FC's away record stands at 8W 2D 6L across 16 trips, a 1.62 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.06 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Port FC's season.
Attack vs Defence
Sukhothai FC are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Port FC are on 1.97 scored and 0.78 conceded.
Defensively: Port FC in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sukhothai FC
Early Season
Port FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sukhothai FC and Port FC in coming into this match?
Sukhothai FC have gone 6W 10D 16L in their last 32 games (0.88 PPG), while Port FC have gone 20W 6D 6L in their last 32 (2.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sukhothai FC at home or Port FC away?
Port FC's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sukhothai FC at home: 1.50 PPG; Port FC away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Sukhothai FC or Port FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sukhothai FC have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Port FC in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. The two were last together as recently as 20 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Port FC won 5-0 on 10 Jan 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sukhothai FC have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Port FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Sukhothai FC
0
Draws
5
Port FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Port FC?
From 9 meetings on record, Sukhothai FC have won 4, Port FC have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sukhothai FC and Port FC last play each other?
They last met on 20 September 2026, when Sukhothai FC 2-1 Port FC.
Who has won more matches between Sukhothai FC and Port FC?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sukhothai FC see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sukhothai FC 69%, Port FC 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Sukhothai FC) and 38% (Port FC).
On the defensive side: Port FC in 31%; Port FC in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sukhothai FC home games / Port FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sukhothai FC play Port FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Sukhothai FC's games and 44% of Port FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sukhothai FC vs Port FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Sukhothai FC's recent games and 38% of Port FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sukhothai FC and Port FC tend to score early?
Sukhothai FC have had a goal before half-time in 44% of their recent matches, Port FC in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sukhothai FC defy the odds to beat Port FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sukhothai FC beat Port FC 2-1 at Thalay Luang Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sukhothai FC 1.22 xG and Port FC 1.59 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sukhothai FC attack 1.00 / defence 1.13 against Port FC attack 1.14 / defence 0.96, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Sukhothai FC 29% | Draw 25% | Port FC 46%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Sukhothai FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sukhothai FC 38%, Port FC 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sukhothai FC's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Port FC's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Port FC arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 0.88. Form was overturned, with Sukhothai FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Port FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.