Sukhothai FC 3-2 Port FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sukhothai FC at 49%, yet the head-to-head data favours Port FC — this Sukhothai FC vs Port FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sukhothai FC and Port FC meet at Thung Talay Luang Stadium in Thai League 1 (matchday 18). This fixture gets under way on Monday 20 January 2025 at 11:00 UK time.
Current Form
Sukhothai FC's record over their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). Last five: W L D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Sukhothai FC's form when playing at home: 7W 0D 3L across their last 10 home games (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Port FC have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Port FC's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across their last 10 road games (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head sample leans to Port FC, who have 4 wins from 5 H2H matches compared to 1 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 27 Aug 2024, ended Sukhothai FC 1–4 Port FC — a Port FC win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Port FC have won 4 of 5 H2H matches, and at 3.0 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading & In-Play
Sukhothai FC — key trading statistics (last 47 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Port FC — key trading statistics (last 47 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 91% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sukhothai FC 60% and Port FC 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sukhothai FC 64% | Port FC 66%). Note also that Port FC surrender HT leads in 27% of cases while Sukhothai FC recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 35% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sukhothai FC 1.62 xG and Port FC 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sukhothai FC attack 1.066 / defence 0.982 | Port FC attack 0.963 / defence 0.871. League average goals — home 1.745 / away 1.143. Data: built from Sukhothai FC's last 47 games and Port FC's last 47.
Result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 49% | Draw 27% | Port FC 24%. Fair-value odds: Sukhothai FC 2.05 | Draw 3.68 | Port FC 4.14. Sukhothai FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sukhothai FC as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sukhothai FC if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.70 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Sukhothai FC's last 10 home games and Port FC's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sukhothai FC 40% (last 10 home games) | Port FC 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sukhothai FC vs Port FC | Competition: Thai League 1, matchday 18 | Venue: Thung Talay Luang Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 20 January 2025 at 11:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 49% | Draw 27% | Port FC 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Sukhothai FC 1.62 / Port FC 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Sukhothai FC attack 1.066 / def 0.982 | Port FC attack 0.963 / def 0.871 | league avg home 1.745 / away 1.143 • Poisson stance: Sukhothai FC (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Sukhothai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Port FC xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sukhothai FC vs Port FC FAQs
What time does Sukhothai FC vs Port FC kick off?
Sukhothai FC vs Port FC kicked off at 11:00 UK time on Monday 20 January 2025 at Thung Talay Luang Stadium.
What was the final score in Sukhothai FC vs Port FC?
Sukhothai FC 3 - 2 Port FC.
Where is Sukhothai FC vs Port FC being played?
The match is being played at Thung Talay Luang Stadium.
What competition is Sukhothai FC vs Port FC part of?
Sukhothai FC vs Port FC is a Thai League 1 fixture (matchday 18) (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Sukhothai FC vs Port FC?
Our statistical model gives Sukhothai FC a 49% chance of winning, Port FC a 24% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sukhothai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sukhothai FC vs Port FC?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Sukhothai FC and Port FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Sukhothai FC vs Port FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Sukhothai FC's attack at 1.07x the league average against Port FC's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 1.62 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Port FC's attack (0.96x) against Sukhothai FC's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from Sukhothai FC's last 47 games and Port FC's last 47 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sukhothai FC Win
49%
2.05
27%
3.68
24%
4.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Sukhothai FC xG
Total xG
2.70
1.08
Port FC xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
4.14
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
34%
2.95
20%
5.06
Win to Nil
16%
6.06
5%
20.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 7.2 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 11.8 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sukhothai FC vs Port FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sukhothai FC vs Port FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Sukhothai FC and Port FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Sukhothai FC and 1.08 for Port FC, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Sukhothai FC vs Port FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sukhothai FC's recent record stands at 16W 9D 22L from 47 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-D in the last five.
Port FC, meanwhile, have gone 24W 14D 9L across 47 games — 1.83 PPG, with D-W-W-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Port FC by 0.62 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sukhothai FC heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Sukhothai FC have managed 13W 2D 8L from their last 23 home games — 1.78 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.21 PPG overall — Sukhothai FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Port FC's away record stands at 8W 11D 4L across their last 23 away games, a 1.52 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Sukhothai FC are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per game recently; Port FC are on 2.15 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Port FC in 70%.
Last 47 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sukhothai FC
Blended
Port FC
Blended
Sukhothai FC (Home) vs Port FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sukhothai FC
Blended
Port FC
Blended
❓ Sukhothai FC vs Port FC Form FAQs
What form are Sukhothai FC and Port FC in coming into this match?
Sukhothai FC have gone 16W 9D 22L in their last 47 games (1.21 PPG), while Port FC have gone 24W 14D 9L in their last 47 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sukhothai FC at home or Port FC away?
Sukhothai FC's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sukhothai FC at home: 1.78 PPG; Port FC away: 1.52 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 9 H2H matches between Sukhothai FC and Port FC, the earliest from October 2022. All of them came in Thai League 1. The most recent was as recently as 20 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Port FC won Port FC 5-0 Sukhothai FC on 10 Jan 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sukhothai FC have gone 4W 0D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Port FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Sukhothai FC
0
Draws
5
Port FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Sukhothai FC vs Port FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Port FC?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Sukhothai FC have won 4, Port FC have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sukhothai FC and Port FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 September 2026: Sukhothai FC 2-1 Port FC.
Who has won more matches between Sukhothai FC and Port FC?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sukhothai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 57% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sukhothai FC 52%, Port FC 74% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Sukhothai FC and 61% for Port FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sukhothai FC keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sukhothai FC home games / Port FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sukhothai FC vs Port FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sukhothai FC and Port FC matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Sukhothai FC's games and 74% of Port FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Sukhothai FC and Port FC matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Sukhothai FC's matches and 61% of Port FC's.
Do Sukhothai FC and Port FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Sukhothai FC's recent matches and 91% of Port FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sukhothai FC edge out Port FC 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sukhothai FC beat Port FC 3-2 at Thung Talay Luang Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sukhothai FC 1.62 xG and Port FC 1.08 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Sukhothai FC beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Port FC outscored their 1.08 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sukhothai FC attack 1.07 / defence 0.98 against Port FC attack 0.96 / defence 0.87, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sukhothai FC 49% | Draw 27% | Port FC 24%, with Sukhothai FC to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sukhothai FC 64%, Port FC 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sukhothai FC's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Port FC's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Port FC arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.21. Form was overturned, with Sukhothai FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sukhothai FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.70 average — above their attacking norm. Port FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.