Sukhothai FC vs Pattani – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sukhothai FC at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sukhothai FC vs Pattani fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sukhothai FC host Pattani at Thalay Luang Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 4 April 2027 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sukhothai FC stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Sukhothai FC haven't played a Thai League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Sukhothai FC's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Thalay Luang Stadium this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Sukhothai FC are significantly better at Thalay Luang Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Pattani have recorded 0W 1D 0L from 1 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Pattani have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sukhothai FC 0.70 PPG, Pattani 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sukhothai FC 1.71 xG and Pattani 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sukhothai FC attack 1.002 / defence 0.985 | Pattani attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.488 / away 0.956. Data: 30 Sukhothai FC games / 1 Pattani games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 57% | Draw 29% | Pattani 15%. Fair-value odds: Sukhothai FC 1.75 | Draw 3.45 | Pattani 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Sukhothai FC (57%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sukhothai FC at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 29% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.52 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sukhothai FC vs Pattani | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Thalay Luang Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Apr 2027, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 57% | Draw 29% | Pattani 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 48% | xG Sukhothai FC 1.71 / Pattani 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Sukhothai FC attack 1.002 / def 0.985 | Pattani attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.488 / away 0.956 • Poisson stance: Sukhothai FC (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Sukhothai FC xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Pattani xG
48%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sukhothai FC vs Pattani kick off?
Sukhothai FC vs Pattani is scheduled to kick off at 11:00 on Sunday 4 April 2027 at Thalay Luang Stadium.
Where is Sukhothai FC vs Pattani being played?
The match is being played at Thalay Luang Stadium.
What competition is Sukhothai FC vs Pattani part of?
Sukhothai FC vs Pattani is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Sukhothai FC vs Pattani?
Our statistical model gives Sukhothai FC a 57% chance of winning, Pattani a 15% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Sukhothai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sukhothai FC vs Pattani?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Sukhothai FC and Pattani will score (BTTS).
Will Sukhothai FC vs Pattani have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Pattani?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sukhothai FC and Pattani in?
Sukhothai FC (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Pattani (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Sukhothai FC's attack rating (1.00) and Pattani's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.71 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Pattani's attack versus Sukhothai FC's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/1 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.4%), 2-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sukhothai FC Win
57%
1.77
29%
3.48
15%
6.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.9%
Home win
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Sukhothai FC xG
Total xG
2.52
0.80
Pattani xG
1.77
57%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
6.81
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
18%
5.55
Win to Nil
25%
3.94
3%
37.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.9 | 11.1 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 9.5 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.8 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sukhothai FC vs Pattani?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Sukhothai FC and Pattani expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Sukhothai FC and 0.80 for Pattani, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Sukhothai FC vs Pattani?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sukhothai FC come into this having played 1 games, going 1W 0D 0L for 3.00 points per game. Their last five reads W. Sukhothai FC haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Pattani sit at 1.00 PPG from 1 outings (0W 1D 0L), a run that reads D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Pattani, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sukhothai FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 2.00 PPG clear of Pattani — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
Sukhothai FC are averaging 3.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Pattani are on 0.00 scored and 0.00 conceded. Sukhothai FC's scoring rate against Pattani's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Sukhothai FC have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Pattani in 0%.
Defensively: Sukhothai FC have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games; Pattani in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sukhothai FC
Pre-Season
Pattani
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sukhothai FC and Pattani in coming into this match?
Sukhothai FC have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 games (3.00 PPG), while Pattani have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 (1.00 PPG).
Have Sukhothai FC or Pattani been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sukhothai FC have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Pattani in 100%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sukhothai FC home games / Pattani away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sukhothai FC play Pattani?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Sukhothai FC's recent matches and 0% of Pattani's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sukhothai FC vs Pattani usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 100% of Sukhothai FC's recent games and 0% of Pattani's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sukhothai FC and Pattani tend to score early?
Sukhothai FC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Pattani in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.