Sukhothai FC 1-0 Nakhon Ratchasima FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sukhothai FC at 63%, yet in-form Nakhon Ratchasima FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sukhothai FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Thung Talay Luang Stadium plays host to Sukhothai FC versus Nakhon Ratchasima FC in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Saturday 5 October 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sukhothai FC's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.30 conceded. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sukhothai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Thung Talay Luang Stadium, Sukhothai FC have gone 6W 0D 4L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Sukhothai FC are significantly better at Thung Talay Luang Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have collected 1.62 PPG across 8 Thai League 1 outings this season: 3W 4D 1L. Last five: D D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.25 per game is modest, conceding 1.38 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 88% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 away fixtures this term (1.25 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC arrive in superior form — a 0.62 PPG advantage (1.62 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Sukhothai FC, 1 for Nakhon Ratchasima FC and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 10 Mar 2023, ended 2–3 with Nakhon Ratchasima FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Sukhothai FC — key trading statistics (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 62%.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC — key trading statistics (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sukhothai FC 62% and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 88% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sukhothai FC 62% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sukhothai FC 2.25 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sukhothai FC attack 1.122 / defence 1.127 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.794 / defence 1.168. League average goals — home 1.719 / away 1.113. Data: 38 Sukhothai FC games / 8 Nakhon Ratchasima FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 63% | Draw 24% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 13%. Fair-value odds: Sukhothai FC 1.59 | Draw 4.17 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Sukhothai FC (63%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sukhothai FC are the pick at 63% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Nakhon Ratchasima FC (1.62 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.25 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Sukhothai FC 50% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 75% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sukhothai FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Thung Talay Luang Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Oct 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 63% | Draw 24% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 59% | xG Sukhothai FC 2.25 / Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Sukhothai FC attack 1.122 / def 1.127 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.794 / def 1.168 | league avg home 1.719 / away 1.113 • Poisson stance: Sukhothai FC (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.25
Sukhothai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
59%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sukhothai FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC kick off?
Sukhothai FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 5 October 2024 at Thung Talay Luang Stadium.
What was the final score in Sukhothai FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Sukhothai FC 1 - 0 Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
Where is Sukhothai FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC being played?
The match is being played at Thung Talay Luang Stadium.
What competition is Sukhothai FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC part of?
Sukhothai FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Sukhothai FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our statistical model gives Sukhothai FC a 63% chance of winning, Nakhon Ratchasima FC a 13% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sukhothai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sukhothai FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Sukhothai FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC will score (BTTS).
Will Sukhothai FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Record (2 meetings): Sukhothai FC 0W | Draws 1 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1W.
What form are Sukhothai FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC in?
Sukhothai FC (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (all comps): 3W-4D-1L in 8 | 1.62 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 1.38 | L5 D-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Sukhothai FC's attack at 1.12x the league average against Nakhon Ratchasima FC's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 2.25 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Nakhon Ratchasima FC's attack (0.79x) against Sukhothai FC's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 38/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 9.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sukhothai FC Win
63%
1.59
24%
4.15
13%
7.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.25
Sukhothai FC xG
Total xG
3.25
1.00
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
1.59
63%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
7.82
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
11%
9.51
Win to Nil
23%
4.29
1%
74.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.7 | 8.7 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.8 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sukhothai FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Sukhothai FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.25 expected goals for Sukhothai FC and 1.00 for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Sukhothai FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sukhothai FC come into this having played 8 games, going 3W 1D 4L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-W. The sample for Sukhothai FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Nakhon Ratchasima FC sit at 1.62 PPG from 8 outings (3W 4D 1L), a run that reads D-D-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Nakhon Ratchasima FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Sukhothai FC against 1.62 for Nakhon Ratchasima FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Sukhothai FC's home form reads 2W 0D 2L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have taken 1.25 points per game from 4 outings (1W 2D 1L).
Attack vs Defence
Sukhothai FC are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Nakhon Ratchasima FC are on 1.25 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sukhothai FC have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Nakhon Ratchasima FC in 88%.
Defensively: Sukhothai FC have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sukhothai FC
Blended
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sukhothai FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC in coming into this match?
Sukhothai FC have gone 3W 1D 4L in their last 8 games (1.25 PPG), while Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 3W 4D 1L in their last 8 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sukhothai FC at home or Nakhon Ratchasima FC away?
Sukhothai FC's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sukhothai FC at home: 1.50 PPG; Nakhon Ratchasima FC away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Sukhothai FC or Nakhon Ratchasima FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sukhothai FC have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Nakhon Ratchasima FC in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sukhothai FC have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Nakhon Ratchasima FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Sukhothai FC
2
Draws
2
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Sukhothai FC have won 2, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sukhothai FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1-0 Sukhothai FC.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sukhothai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sukhothai FC 50%, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Sukhothai FC and 50% for Nakhon Ratchasima FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 75% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sukhothai FC keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sukhothai FC home games / Nakhon Ratchasima FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sukhothai FC play Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Sukhothai FC's games and 75% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sukhothai FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Sukhothai FC's matches and 50% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's.
Do Sukhothai FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC tend to score early?
Sukhothai FC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Nakhon Ratchasima FC in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sukhothai FC edge out Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sukhothai FC beat Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1-0 at Thung Talay Luang Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sukhothai FC 2.25 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.00 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sukhothai FC fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Nakhon Ratchasima FC landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sukhothai FC attack 1.12 / defence 1.13 against Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.79 / defence 1.17, drawn from 38/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sukhothai FC 63% | Draw 24% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 13%, with Sukhothai FC to win its most likely call at 63%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sukhothai FC 62%, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sukhothai FC's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 88% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sukhothai FC 1.25 PPG, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sukhothai FC win broke the near-deadlock. Sukhothai FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.