Rayong FC vs Buriram United – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Buriram United (37%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Rayong FC face Buriram United.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Buriram United travel to Rayong Provincial Stadium to take on Rayong FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 20 February 2027, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rayong FC stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Rayong FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Rayong FC at Rayong Provincial Stadium this season: 4W 6D 0L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Rayong FC are significantly better at Rayong Provincial Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Buriram United have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Buriram United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Buriram United have posted 7W 1D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Buriram United — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Rayong FC have won 1, Buriram United 3, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 Oct 2026, ended 2–3 with Buriram United winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Rayong FC trading profile (35 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 26% of cases; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Buriram United trading profile (35 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rayong FC 77% and Buriram United 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rayong FC 51% | Buriram United 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rayong FC 1.03 xG and Buriram United 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rayong FC attack 0.949 / defence 0.802 | Buriram United attack 1.082 / defence 0.744. League average goals — home 1.457 / away 1.292. Buriram United's defence strength of 0.744 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 35 Rayong FC games / 35 Buriram United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rayong FC 32% | Draw 31% | Buriram United 37%. Fair-value odds: Rayong FC 3.12 | Draw 3.23 | Buriram United 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Buriram United as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Buriram United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.15 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. This conflicts with form data: Rayong FC 80% | Buriram United 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rayong FC vs Buriram United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Rayong Provincial Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Feb 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rayong FC 32% | Draw 31% | Buriram United 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 44% | xG Rayong FC 1.03 / Buriram United 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Rayong FC attack 0.949 / def 0.802 | Buriram United attack 1.082 / def 0.744 | league avg home 1.457 / away 1.292 • Poisson stance: Buriram United (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Rayong FC xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Buriram United xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rayong FC vs Buriram United kick off?
Rayong FC vs Buriram United is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Saturday 20 February 2027 at Rayong Provincial Stadium.
Where is Rayong FC vs Buriram United being played?
The match is being played at Rayong Provincial Stadium.
What competition is Rayong FC vs Buriram United part of?
Rayong FC vs Buriram United is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Rayong FC vs Buriram United?
Our statistical model gives Rayong FC a 32% chance of winning, Buriram United a 37% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Buriram United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rayong FC vs Buriram United?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Rayong FC and Buriram United will score (BTTS).
Will Rayong FC vs Buriram United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rayong FC and Buriram United?
Record (5 meetings): Rayong FC 1W | Draws 1 | Buriram United 3W.
What form are Rayong FC and Buriram United in?
Rayong FC (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-D-L-D. Buriram United (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Rayong FC's attack rating (0.95) and Buriram United's defence rating (0.74), the model arrives at 1.03 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Buriram United's attack versus Rayong FC's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 0-1 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Buriram United Win
32%
3.13
31%
3.19
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Rayong FC xG
Total xG
2.15
1.12
Buriram United xG
3.13
32%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
10%
9.60
13%
7.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 13.1 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rayong FC vs Buriram United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Rayong FC and Buriram United expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Rayong FC and 1.12 for Buriram United, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Rayong FC vs Buriram United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Rayong FC come into this having played 35 games, going 11W 12D 12L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-D. It's still early in the season for Rayong FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Buriram United sit at 2.37 PPG from 35 outings (26W 5D 4L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Buriram United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Buriram United carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.08 PPG clear of Rayong FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Rayong FC's home form reads 8W 8D 2L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.78 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.29 PPG overall — Rayong FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Buriram United have taken 2.28 points per game from 18 outings (13W 2D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Buriram United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Rayong FC are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Buriram United are on 2.43 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rayong FC have seen both teams score in 77% of their recent games; Buriram United in 60%.
Last 35 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rayong FC
Early Season
Buriram United
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rayong FC and Buriram United in coming into this match?
Rayong FC have gone 11W 12D 12L in their last 35 games (1.29 PPG), while Buriram United have gone 26W 5D 4L in their last 35 (2.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rayong FC at home or Buriram United away?
Buriram United's away record (2.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rayong FC at home: 1.78 PPG; Buriram United away: 2.28 PPG.
Have Rayong FC or Buriram United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rayong FC have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Buriram United in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. The two were last together as recently as 10 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Apr 2026, when Rayong FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rayong FC's record when hosting Buriram United specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Rayong FC
1
Draws
3
Buriram United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rayong FC and Buriram United?
From 5 meetings on record, Rayong FC have won 1, Buriram United have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Rayong FC and Buriram United last play each other?
They last met on 10 October 2026, when Buriram United 3-2 Rayong FC.
Who has won more matches between Rayong FC and Buriram United?
Buriram United have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rayong FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Buriram United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Rayong FC at 72%, Buriram United at 61%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Rayong FC) and 72% (Buriram United). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Buriram United in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rayong FC home games / Buriram United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rayong FC play Buriram United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Rayong FC's games and 61% of Buriram United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rayong FC vs Buriram United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 39% of Rayong FC's matches and 72% of Buriram United's.
Do Rayong FC and Buriram United tend to score early?
Rayong FC have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Buriram United in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.