Ratchaburi 3-1 Sukhothai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ratchaburi at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ratchaburi vs Sukhothai FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Sukhothai FC travel to Dragon Solar Park to take on Ratchaburi. The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 October 2023, 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Ratchaburi have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Ratchaburi have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Dragon Solar Park, Ratchaburi have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sukhothai FC — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Sukhothai FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sukhothai FC away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Ratchaburi) versus 0.80 (Sukhothai FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Ratchaburi register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Sukhothai FC in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Ratchaburi, 1 for Sukhothai FC and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 4 Mar 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Ratchaburi trading profile (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Sukhothai FC trading profile (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ratchaburi 50% versus Sukhothai FC 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ratchaburi 25% | Sukhothai FC 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ratchaburi 2.20 xG and Sukhothai FC 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ratchaburi attack 1.180 / defence 0.960 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.943 / defence 1.078. League average goals — home 1.732 / away 1.232. Data: 37 Ratchaburi games / 36 Sukhothai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ratchaburi 61% | Draw 21% | Sukhothai FC 18%. Fair-value odds: Ratchaburi 1.64 | Draw 4.76 | Sukhothai FC 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Ratchaburi (61%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.32 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.20 / 1.11) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ratchaburi as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.32 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ratchaburi 70% | Sukhothai FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ratchaburi vs Sukhothai FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Dragon Solar Park • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Oct 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ratchaburi 61% | Draw 21% | Sukhothai FC 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 60% | xG Ratchaburi 2.20 / Sukhothai FC 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Ratchaburi attack 1.180 / def 0.960 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.943 / def 1.078 | league avg home 1.732 / away 1.232 • Poisson stance: Ratchaburi (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.20
Ratchaburi xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Sukhothai FC xG
60%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ratchaburi vs Sukhothai FC kick off?
Ratchaburi vs Sukhothai FC kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 21 October 2023 at Dragon Solar Park.
What was the final score in Ratchaburi vs Sukhothai FC?
Ratchaburi 3 - 1 Sukhothai FC.
Where is Ratchaburi vs Sukhothai FC being played?
The match is being played at Dragon Solar Park.
What competition is Ratchaburi vs Sukhothai FC part of?
Ratchaburi vs Sukhothai FC is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Ratchaburi vs Sukhothai FC?
Our statistical model gives Ratchaburi a 61% chance of winning, Sukhothai FC a 18% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Ratchaburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ratchaburi vs Sukhothai FC?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Ratchaburi and Sukhothai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Ratchaburi vs Sukhothai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Sukhothai FC?
Record (2 meetings): Ratchaburi 0W | Draws 1 | Sukhothai FC 1W.
What form are Ratchaburi and Sukhothai FC in?
Ratchaburi (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-W-D. Sukhothai FC (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Ratchaburi's attack rating (1.18) and Sukhothai FC's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 2.20 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sukhothai FC's attack versus Ratchaburi's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ratchaburi Win
61%
1.63
21%
4.75
18%
5.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
2 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.20
Ratchaburi xG
Total xG
3.32
1.11
Sukhothai FC xG
1.63
61%
Home win
4.75
21%
Draw
5.69
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.65
40%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
11%
9.04
Win to Nil
20%
4.97
2%
51.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 8.9 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.8 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ratchaburi vs Sukhothai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Ratchaburi and Sukhothai FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.20 expected goals for Ratchaburi and 1.11 for Sukhothai FC, a combined total of 3.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Ratchaburi vs Sukhothai FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ratchaburi's recent record stands at 11W 13D 12L from 36 games, a 1.28 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Ratchaburi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sukhothai FC, meanwhile, have gone 9W 11D 16L across 36 games — 1.06 PPG, with D-L-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Sukhothai FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ratchaburi on 1.28 PPG, Sukhothai FC on 1.06. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Ratchaburi have managed 6W 8D 3L from 17 games — 1.53 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sukhothai FC's away record stands at 3W 6D 8L across 17 trips, a 0.88 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ratchaburi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ratchaburi are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Sukhothai FC are on 0.86 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 36 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ratchaburi
Early Season
Sukhothai FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ratchaburi and Sukhothai FC in coming into this match?
Ratchaburi have gone 11W 13D 12L in their last 36 games (1.28 PPG), while Sukhothai FC have gone 9W 11D 16L in their last 36 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ratchaburi at home or Sukhothai FC away?
Ratchaburi's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ratchaburi at home: 1.53 PPG; Sukhothai FC away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Ratchaburi or Sukhothai FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ratchaburi have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Sukhothai FC in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Ratchaburi have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Ratchaburi's record when hosting Sukhothai FC specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Ratchaburi
2
Draws
3
Sukhothai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Sukhothai FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Ratchaburi have won 3, Sukhothai FC have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ratchaburi and Sukhothai FC last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Sukhothai FC 1-2 Ratchaburi.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ratchaburi see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Sukhothai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ratchaburi 65%, Sukhothai FC 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 24% for Ratchaburi and 41% for Sukhothai FC.
On the defensive side: Sukhothai FC in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ratchaburi home games / Sukhothai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ratchaburi play Sukhothai FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Ratchaburi's games and 59% of Sukhothai FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ratchaburi vs Sukhothai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 24% of Ratchaburi's recent games and 41% of Sukhothai FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ratchaburi and Sukhothai FC tend to score early?
Ratchaburi have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Sukhothai FC in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ratchaburi cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Sukhothai FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ratchaburi beat Sukhothai FC 3-1 at Dragon Solar Park, Regular Season - 8, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ratchaburi 2.20 xG and Sukhothai FC 1.11 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ratchaburi attack 1.18 / defence 0.96 against Sukhothai FC attack 0.94 / defence 1.08, drawn from 37/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ratchaburi 61% | Draw 21% | Sukhothai FC 18%, with Ratchaburi to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ratchaburi 25%, Sukhothai FC 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ratchaburi's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Sukhothai FC's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ratchaburi 1.28 PPG, Sukhothai FC 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ratchaburi win broke the near-deadlock. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.41 average — above their attacking norm. Sukhothai FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.59 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.