Ratchaburi 6-1 Rayong FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Ratchaburi (60%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Ratchaburi face Rayong FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 29 as Ratchaburi welcome Rayong FC to Dragon Solar Park. Kick-off is set for Sunday 3 May 2026 at 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Ratchaburi have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: D W W W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Ratchaburi's home record at Dragon Solar Park: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rayong FC stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Rayong FC's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Ratchaburi carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Ratchaburi register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Rayong FC in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
Ratchaburi hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 3 wins from 3 previous encounters compared to 0 for Rayong FC, with 0 draws in between.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 4.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 Dec 2025, ended 4–2 with Ratchaburi winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Ratchaburi and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 4.3 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Ratchaburi in-play tendencies (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Rayong FC in-play tendencies (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ratchaburi 60% and Rayong FC 72% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ratchaburi 59% | Rayong FC 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ratchaburi 2.17 xG and Rayong FC 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ratchaburi attack 1.028 / defence 1.064 | Rayong FC attack 0.988 / defence 1.418. League average goals — home 1.490 / away 1.042. Rayong FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.418 — this is suppressing Ratchaburi's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 58 Ratchaburi games / 58 Rayong FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ratchaburi 60% | Draw 23% | Rayong FC 17%. Fair-value odds: Ratchaburi 1.67 | Draw 4.35 | Rayong FC 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Ratchaburi (60%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.17 / 1.09) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ratchaburi are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.27 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Ratchaburi 60% | Rayong FC 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ratchaburi vs Rayong FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Dragon Solar Park • Kick-off: Sunday 3 May 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ratchaburi 60% | Draw 23% | Rayong FC 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 61% | xG Ratchaburi 2.17 / Rayong FC 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Ratchaburi attack 1.028 / def 1.064 | Rayong FC attack 0.988 / def 1.418 | league avg home 1.490 / away 1.042 • Poisson stance: Ratchaburi (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.17
Ratchaburi xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Rayong FC xG
61%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ratchaburi vs Rayong FC kick off?
Ratchaburi vs Rayong FC kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 3 May 2026 at Dragon Solar Park.
What was the final score in Ratchaburi vs Rayong FC?
Ratchaburi 6 - 1 Rayong FC.
Where is Ratchaburi vs Rayong FC being played?
The match is being played at Dragon Solar Park.
What competition is Ratchaburi vs Rayong FC part of?
Ratchaburi vs Rayong FC is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Ratchaburi vs Rayong FC?
Our statistical model gives Ratchaburi a 60% chance of winning, Rayong FC a 17% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Ratchaburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ratchaburi vs Rayong FC?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Ratchaburi and Rayong FC will score (BTTS).
Will Ratchaburi vs Rayong FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Rayong FC?
Record (3 meetings): Ratchaburi 3W | Draws 0 | Rayong FC 0W.
What form are Ratchaburi and Rayong FC in?
Ratchaburi (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Rayong FC (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Ratchaburi's attack rating (1.03) and Rayong FC's defence rating (1.42), the model arrives at 2.17 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Rayong FC's attack versus Ratchaburi's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ratchaburi Win
60%
1.66
23%
4.31
17%
6.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
2 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.17
Ratchaburi xG
Total xG
3.27
1.09
Rayong FC xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.31
23%
Draw
6.04
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
11%
8.78
Win to Nil
20%
4.96
2%
53.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.3 | 9.1 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ratchaburi vs Rayong FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Ratchaburi and Rayong FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.17 expected goals for Ratchaburi and 1.09 for Rayong FC, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Ratchaburi vs Rayong FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 58 outings, Ratchaburi have picked up 1.81 PPG on a 31W 12D 15L record — D-W-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Rayong FC's form line: 17W 17D 24L from 58 games, 1.17 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-W.
Put side by side, Ratchaburi are the form team by 0.64 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Rayong FC.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Ratchaburi have posted 1.93 PPG from 29 outings (16W 8D 5L).
On the road, Rayong FC have gone 5W 7D 17L from 29 away games — 0.76 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.17 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rayong FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ratchaburi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ratchaburi are averaging 1.95 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Rayong FC are on 1.43 scored and 1.74 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ratchaburi have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Rayong FC in 72%.
Last 58 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ratchaburi
Current Season
Rayong FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ratchaburi and Rayong FC in coming into this match?
Ratchaburi have gone 31W 12D 15L in their last 58 games (1.81 PPG), while Rayong FC have gone 17W 17D 24L in their last 58 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ratchaburi at home or Rayong FC away?
Ratchaburi's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ratchaburi at home: 1.93 PPG; Rayong FC away: 0.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ratchaburi and Rayong FC runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Ratchaburi have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 May 2026, when Ratchaburi won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ratchaburi's record when hosting Rayong FC specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Ratchaburi
0
Draws
0
Rayong FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Rayong FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Ratchaburi have won 4, Rayong FC have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ratchaburi and Rayong FC last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Ratchaburi 6-1 Rayong FC.
Who has won more matches between Ratchaburi and Rayong FC?
Ratchaburi have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ratchaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Rayong FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ratchaburi 55%, Rayong FC 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Ratchaburi) and 62% (Rayong FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ratchaburi keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ratchaburi home games / Rayong FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ratchaburi play Rayong FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Ratchaburi's games and 69% of Rayong FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ratchaburi vs Rayong FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Ratchaburi's matches and 62% of Rayong FC's.
Do Ratchaburi and Rayong FC tend to score early?
Ratchaburi have had a goal before half-time in 93% of their recent matches, Rayong FC in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Ratchaburi run riot with a 6-1 hammering of Rayong FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ratchaburi beat Rayong FC 6-1 at Dragon Solar Park, Regular Season - 29, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ratchaburi 2.17 xG and Rayong FC 1.09 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 6-1 for 7 actual goals. Ratchaburi beat their projection by 3.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ratchaburi attack 1.03 / defence 1.06 against Rayong FC attack 0.99 / defence 1.42, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ratchaburi 60% | Draw 23% | Rayong FC 17%, with Ratchaburi to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ratchaburi 59%, Rayong FC 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ratchaburi's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Rayong FC's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Ratchaburi arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.17. Form held, and they took the win. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.86 average — above their attacking norm. Rayong FC (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 2.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.