Ratchaburi 1-1 Nakhon Ratchasima FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Ratchaburi at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ratchaburi vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Nakhon Ratchasima FC travel to Dragon Solar Park to take on Ratchaburi. The game is scheduled for Sunday 2 April 2023, 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Ratchaburi have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L L D D W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Ratchaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Dragon Solar Park, Ratchaburi have gone 3W 5D 2L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nakhon Ratchasima FC stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Ratchaburi 0.90 PPG, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Ratchaburi, 1 for Nakhon Ratchasima FC and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Oct 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Ratchaburi trading profile (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC trading profile (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ratchaburi 46% versus Nakhon Ratchasima FC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ratchaburi 32% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ratchaburi 1.38 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ratchaburi attack 0.842 / defence 0.965 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.956 / defence 1.192. League average goals — home 1.373 / away 1.129. Data: 54 Ratchaburi games / 54 Nakhon Ratchasima FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ratchaburi 44% | Draw 29% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 28%. Fair-value odds: Ratchaburi 2.27 | Draw 3.45 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ratchaburi at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ratchaburi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.42 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Ratchaburi 60% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ratchaburi vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Dragon Solar Park • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Apr 2023, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ratchaburi 44% | Draw 29% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Ratchaburi 1.38 / Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Ratchaburi attack 0.842 / def 0.965 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.956 / def 1.192 | league avg home 1.373 / away 1.129 • Poisson stance: Ratchaburi (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Ratchaburi xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ratchaburi vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC kick off?
Ratchaburi vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 2 April 2023 at Dragon Solar Park.
What was the final score in Ratchaburi vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Ratchaburi 1 - 1 Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
Where is Ratchaburi vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC being played?
The match is being played at Dragon Solar Park.
What competition is Ratchaburi vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC part of?
Ratchaburi vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Ratchaburi vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our statistical model gives Ratchaburi a 44% chance of winning, Nakhon Ratchasima FC a 28% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Ratchaburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ratchaburi vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Ratchaburi and Nakhon Ratchasima FC will score (BTTS).
Will Ratchaburi vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Record (3 meetings): Ratchaburi 1W | Draws 1 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1W.
What form are Ratchaburi and Nakhon Ratchasima FC in?
Ratchaburi (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-D-D-W. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Ratchaburi's attack rating (0.84) and Nakhon Ratchasima FC's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Nakhon Ratchasima FC's attack versus Ratchaburi's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ratchaburi Win
44%
2.29
29%
3.48
28%
3.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Ratchaburi xG
Total xG
2.42
1.04
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
3.63
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
15%
6.47
7%
14.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.8 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ratchaburi vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Ratchaburi and Nakhon Ratchasima FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Ratchaburi and 1.04 for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Ratchaburi vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ratchaburi's recent record stands at 19W 17D 18L from 54 games, a 1.37 PPG return, with L-L-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Ratchaburi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC, meanwhile, have gone 17W 13D 24L across 54 games — 1.19 PPG, with D-L-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Nakhon Ratchasima FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ratchaburi on 1.37 PPG, Nakhon Ratchasima FC on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Ratchaburi have managed 11W 9D 6L from 26 games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's away record stands at 5W 6D 15L across 26 trips, a 0.81 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ratchaburi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ratchaburi are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Nakhon Ratchasima FC are on 1.07 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ratchaburi
Blended
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ratchaburi and Nakhon Ratchasima FC in coming into this match?
Ratchaburi have gone 19W 17D 18L in their last 54 games (1.37 PPG), while Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 17W 13D 24L in their last 54 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ratchaburi at home or Nakhon Ratchasima FC away?
Ratchaburi's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ratchaburi at home: 1.62 PPG; Nakhon Ratchasima FC away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ratchaburi and Nakhon Ratchasima FC runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ratchaburi have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Sep 2024, when Ratchaburi won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ratchaburi's record when hosting Nakhon Ratchasima FC specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Ratchaburi
3
Draws
1
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Ratchaburi have won 4, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ratchaburi and Nakhon Ratchasima FC last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Ratchaburi 1-0 Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
Who has won more matches between Ratchaburi and Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Ratchaburi have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ratchaburi see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ratchaburi 58%, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Ratchaburi) and 50% (Nakhon Ratchasima FC).
On the defensive side: Nakhon Ratchasima FC in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ratchaburi home games / Nakhon Ratchasima FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ratchaburi play Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Ratchaburi's games and 54% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ratchaburi vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Ratchaburi's recent games and 50% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ratchaburi and Nakhon Ratchasima FC tend to score early?
Ratchaburi have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Nakhon Ratchasima FC in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ratchaburi and Nakhon Ratchasima FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Dragon Solar Park, Regular Season - 25, as Ratchaburi and Nakhon Ratchasima FC drew 1-1 in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ratchaburi 1.38 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.04 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ratchaburi attack 0.84 / defence 0.96 against Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.96 / defence 1.19, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ratchaburi 44% | Draw 29% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 28%, with Ratchaburi to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ratchaburi 32%, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ratchaburi's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ratchaburi 1.37 PPG, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.