Ratchaburi 1-1 Lamphun Warrior – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ratchaburi at 49% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ratchaburi vs Lamphun Warrior encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ratchaburi and Lamphun Warrior meet at Ratchaburi Stadium in Thai League 1 (matchday 20). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 1 February 2025 at 11:30 UK time.
Current Form
Ratchaburi's record over their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Last five: L W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Ratchaburi at home: 6W 3D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Lamphun Warrior have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Lamphun Warrior away from home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Ratchaburi's 1.70 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Lamphun Warrior's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Ratchaburi, 1 for Lamphun Warrior and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.6 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 15 Sep 2024, ended Ratchaburi 0–1 Lamphun Warrior — a Lamphun Warrior win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Ratchaburi — key trading statistics (last 49 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 41%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Lamphun Warrior — key trading statistics (last 49 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ratchaburi 49% versus Lamphun Warrior 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ratchaburi 53% | Lamphun Warrior 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ratchaburi 1.42 xG and Lamphun Warrior 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ratchaburi attack 0.988 / defence 0.830 | Lamphun Warrior attack 0.881 / defence 0.813. League average goals — home 1.771 / away 1.177. Data: built from Ratchaburi's last 49 games and Lamphun Warrior's last 49.
Result probabilities: Ratchaburi 49% | Draw 30% | Lamphun Warrior 21%. Fair-value odds: Ratchaburi 2.04 | Draw 3.38 | Lamphun Warrior 4.65. Ratchaburi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ratchaburi are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ratchaburi if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.28 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 55%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Ratchaburi 50% (last 10 home games) | Lamphun Warrior 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ratchaburi vs Lamphun Warrior | Competition: Thai League 1, matchday 20 | Venue: Ratchaburi Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 1 February 2025 at 11:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ratchaburi 49% | Draw 30% | Lamphun Warrior 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Ratchaburi 1.42 / Lamphun Warrior 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Ratchaburi attack 0.988 / def 0.830 | Lamphun Warrior attack 0.881 / def 0.813 | league avg home 1.771 / away 1.177 • Poisson stance: Ratchaburi (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Ratchaburi xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Lamphun Warrior xG
45%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ratchaburi vs Lamphun Warrior FAQs
What time does Ratchaburi vs Lamphun Warrior kick off?
Ratchaburi vs Lamphun Warrior kicked off at 11:30 UK time on Saturday 1 February 2025 at Ratchaburi Stadium.
What was the final score in Ratchaburi vs Lamphun Warrior?
Ratchaburi 1 - 1 Lamphun Warrior.
Where is Ratchaburi vs Lamphun Warrior being played?
The match is being played at Ratchaburi Stadium.
What competition is Ratchaburi vs Lamphun Warrior part of?
Ratchaburi vs Lamphun Warrior is a Thai League 1 fixture (matchday 20) (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Ratchaburi vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our statistical model gives Ratchaburi a 49% chance of winning, Lamphun Warrior a 21% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Ratchaburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ratchaburi vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Ratchaburi and Lamphun Warrior will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Ratchaburi vs Lamphun Warrior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Ratchaburi's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Lamphun Warrior's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. Flip it around — Lamphun Warrior's attack (0.88x) against Ratchaburi's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from Ratchaburi's last 49 games and Lamphun Warrior's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.9%), 0-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ratchaburi Win
49%
2.04
30%
3.38
21%
4.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Ratchaburi xG
Total xG
2.28
0.86
Lamphun Warrior xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
4.65
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
21%
4.83
5%
19.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 8.8 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.5 | 12.5 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 8.9 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ratchaburi vs Lamphun Warrior Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ratchaburi vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Ratchaburi and Lamphun Warrior expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Ratchaburi and 0.86 for Lamphun Warrior, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Ratchaburi vs Lamphun Warrior?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ratchaburi's recent record stands at 19W 11D 19L from 49 games, a 1.39 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-D in the last five.
Lamphun Warrior, meanwhile, have gone 14W 14D 21L across 49 games — 1.14 PPG, with L-L-W-D-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.39 PPG for Ratchaburi against 1.14 for Lamphun Warrior. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Ratchaburi have managed 14W 4D 6L from their last 24 home games — 1.92 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.39 PPG overall — Ratchaburi are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Lamphun Warrior's away record stands at 3W 8D 13L across their last 24 away games, a 0.71 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.14 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lamphun Warrior's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ratchaburi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ratchaburi are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Lamphun Warrior are on 1.39 scored and 1.51 conceded.
Last 49 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ratchaburi
Blended
Lamphun Warrior
Blended
Ratchaburi (Home) vs Lamphun Warrior (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ratchaburi
Blended
Lamphun Warrior
Blended
❓ Ratchaburi vs Lamphun Warrior Form FAQs
What form are Ratchaburi and Lamphun Warrior in coming into this match?
Ratchaburi have gone 19W 11D 19L in their last 49 games (1.39 PPG), while Lamphun Warrior have gone 14W 14D 21L in their last 49 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ratchaburi at home or Lamphun Warrior away?
Ratchaburi's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ratchaburi at home: 1.92 PPG; Lamphun Warrior away: 0.71 PPG.
Have Ratchaburi or Lamphun Warrior been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ratchaburi have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Lamphun Warrior in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between Ratchaburi and Lamphun Warrior, the earliest from August 2022. All of them came in Thai League 1. The most recent was on 11 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Ratchaburi have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ratchaburi won Ratchaburi 5-0 Lamphun Warrior on 18 Oct 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ratchaburi have gone 3W 1D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Lamphun Warrior — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Ratchaburi
3
Draws
1
Lamphun Warrior
Recent Meetings
❓ Ratchaburi vs Lamphun Warrior H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Lamphun Warrior?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Ratchaburi have won 4, Lamphun Warrior have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ratchaburi and Lamphun Warrior last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 April 2026: Lamphun Warrior 1-2 Ratchaburi.
Who has won more matches between Ratchaburi and Lamphun Warrior?
Ratchaburi have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ratchaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Lamphun Warrior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ratchaburi 54%, Lamphun Warrior 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Ratchaburi and 58% for Lamphun Warrior. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ratchaburi keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Lamphun Warrior in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ratchaburi home games / Lamphun Warrior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ratchaburi vs Lamphun Warrior Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ratchaburi and Lamphun Warrior matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Ratchaburi's recent matches and 46% of Lamphun Warrior's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Ratchaburi and Lamphun Warrior matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Ratchaburi's matches and 58% of Lamphun Warrior's.
Do Ratchaburi and Lamphun Warrior matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Ratchaburi's recent matches and 67% of Lamphun Warrior's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ratchaburi and Lamphun Warrior share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Ratchaburi Stadium, Regular Season - 20, as Ratchaburi and Lamphun Warrior drew 1-1 in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ratchaburi 1.42 xG and Lamphun Warrior 0.86 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ratchaburi attack 0.99 / defence 0.83 against Lamphun Warrior attack 0.88 / defence 0.81, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ratchaburi 49% | Draw 30% | Lamphun Warrior 21%, with Ratchaburi to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ratchaburi 53%, Lamphun Warrior 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ratchaburi's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ratchaburi 1.39 PPG, Lamphun Warrior 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.04 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.