Ratchaburi vs Chonburi FC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Ratchaburi (73%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Ratchaburi face Chonburi FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Dragon Solar Park plays host to Ratchaburi versus Chonburi FC in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Saturday 24 October 2026 at 12:30 UTC.
Current Form
Ratchaburi's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W L W D W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Ratchaburi have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ratchaburi at Dragon Solar Park this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Chonburi FC have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Chonburi FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Chonburi FC's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.40 in Ratchaburi's favour (2.20 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 8 meetings: Ratchaburi 4W, Chonburi FC 2W, 2D.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Jan 2026, ended 1–0 with Ratchaburi winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Ratchaburi half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Chonburi FC half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ratchaburi 56% versus Chonburi FC 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ratchaburi 53% | Chonburi FC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ratchaburi 2.49 xG and Chonburi FC 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ratchaburi attack 1.486 / defence 0.766 | Chonburi FC attack 0.860 / defence 1.105. League average goals — home 1.517 / away 1.284. Ratchaburi carry an above-average attack strength of 1.486 — their λ of 2.49 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Ratchaburi's defence rating of 0.766 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 34 Ratchaburi games / 35 Chonburi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ratchaburi 73% | Draw 17% | Chonburi FC 10%. Fair-value odds: Ratchaburi 1.37 | Draw 5.88 | Chonburi FC 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Ratchaburi (73%) — a 63pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 3.34. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.34 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ratchaburi are the pick at 73% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.34 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Ratchaburi 60% | Chonburi FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ratchaburi vs Chonburi FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Dragon Solar Park • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Oct 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ratchaburi 73% | Draw 17% | Chonburi FC 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 53% | xG Ratchaburi 2.49 / Chonburi FC 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Ratchaburi attack 1.486 / def 0.766 | Chonburi FC attack 0.860 / def 1.105 | league avg home 1.517 / away 1.284 • Poisson stance: Ratchaburi (73%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.49
Ratchaburi xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Chonburi FC xG
53%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ratchaburi vs Chonburi FC kick off?
Ratchaburi vs Chonburi FC is scheduled to kick off at 12:30 on Saturday 24 October 2026 at Dragon Solar Park.
Where is Ratchaburi vs Chonburi FC being played?
The match is being played at Dragon Solar Park.
What competition is Ratchaburi vs Chonburi FC part of?
Ratchaburi vs Chonburi FC is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Ratchaburi vs Chonburi FC?
Our statistical model gives Ratchaburi a 73% chance of winning, Chonburi FC a 10% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Ratchaburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ratchaburi vs Chonburi FC?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Ratchaburi and Chonburi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Ratchaburi vs Chonburi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Chonburi FC?
Record (8 meetings): Ratchaburi 4W | Draws 2 | Chonburi FC 2W.
What form are Ratchaburi and Chonburi FC in?
Ratchaburi (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Chonburi FC (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Ratchaburi's attack at 1.49x the league average against Chonburi FC's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 2.49 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Chonburi FC's attack (0.86x) against Ratchaburi's defence (0.77x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from 34/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 3-0 (9.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ratchaburi Win
73%
1.37
17%
5.90
10%
9.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
3 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.49
Ratchaburi xG
Total xG
3.34
0.85
Chonburi FC xG
1.37
73%
Home win
5.90
17%
Draw
9.78
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
8%
12.07
Win to Nil
31%
3.20
1%
118.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.9 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.3 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.2 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.7 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ratchaburi vs Chonburi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Ratchaburi and Chonburi FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.49 expected goals for Ratchaburi and 0.85 for Chonburi FC, a combined total of 3.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Ratchaburi vs Chonburi FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 73%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 34 outings, Ratchaburi have picked up 1.94 PPG on a 20W 6D 8L record — W-L-W-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Ratchaburi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Chonburi FC's form line: 10W 8D 16L from 34 games, 1.12 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Chonburi FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Ratchaburi are the form team by 0.82 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Chonburi FC.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Ratchaburi have posted 2.06 PPG from 16 outings (10W 3D 3L).
On the road, Chonburi FC have gone 4W 3D 9L from 16 away games — 0.94 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ratchaburi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ratchaburi are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Chonburi FC are on 1.24 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 34 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ratchaburi
Early Season
Chonburi FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ratchaburi and Chonburi FC in coming into this match?
Ratchaburi have gone 20W 6D 8L in their last 34 games (1.94 PPG), while Chonburi FC have gone 10W 8D 16L in their last 34 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ratchaburi at home or Chonburi FC away?
Ratchaburi's home record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ratchaburi at home: 2.06 PPG; Chonburi FC away: 0.94 PPG.
Have Ratchaburi or Chonburi FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ratchaburi have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Chonburi FC in 9%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 11 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Ratchaburi go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Chonburi FC won 3-0 on 28 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ratchaburi have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Chonburi FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Ratchaburi
2
Draws
2
Chonburi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Chonburi FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Ratchaburi have won 4, Chonburi FC have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ratchaburi and Chonburi FC last play each other?
They last met on 11 January 2026, when Ratchaburi 1-0 Chonburi FC.
Who has won more matches between Ratchaburi and Chonburi FC?
Ratchaburi have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ratchaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Chonburi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ratchaburi 44%, Chonburi FC 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Ratchaburi) and 62% (Chonburi FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ratchaburi keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Chonburi FC in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ratchaburi home games / Chonburi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ratchaburi play Chonburi FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Ratchaburi's recent matches and 56% of Chonburi FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ratchaburi vs Chonburi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Ratchaburi's matches and 62% of Chonburi FC's.
Do Ratchaburi and Chonburi FC tend to score early?
Ratchaburi have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Chonburi FC in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.