Ratchaburi 1-2 Chonburi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ratchaburi at 55% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Ratchaburi face Chonburi FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Dragon Solar Park plays host to Ratchaburi versus Chonburi FC in Thai League 1 (matchday 10). Kick-off: Sunday 5 November 2023 at 12:00 UK time.
Current Form
Ratchaburi's record over their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Ratchaburi at home: 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Ratchaburi are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Chonburi FC have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Chonburi FC's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Ratchaburi, 1.00 for Chonburi FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Ratchaburi's last 10 home games and Chonburi FC's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 80% of Ratchaburi's games and 80% of Chonburi FC's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Ratchaburi, 1 for Chonburi FC and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 19 Mar 2023, ended Ratchaburi 2–1 Chonburi FC — a Ratchaburi win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Ratchaburi half-time and goal-timing data (last 37 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Chonburi FC half-time and goal-timing data (last 37 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ratchaburi 54% versus Chonburi FC 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ratchaburi 30% | Chonburi FC 49%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Ratchaburi surrender their half-time lead 30% of the time, while Chonburi FC have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ratchaburi 2.17 xG and Chonburi FC 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ratchaburi attack 1.229 / defence 0.952 | Chonburi FC attack 1.155 / defence 1.034. League average goals — home 1.710 / away 1.241. Data: built from Ratchaburi's last 39 games and Chonburi FC's last 37.
Result probabilities: Ratchaburi 55% | Draw 22% | Chonburi FC 23%. Fair-value odds: Ratchaburi 1.81 | Draw 4.60 | Chonburi FC 4.36. The model has a clear lean to Ratchaburi (55%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS Yes probability 67% | Total xG 3.54. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.54 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% — both xG figures (2.17 / 1.36) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ratchaburi are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.54 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Ratchaburi's last 10 home games and Chonburi FC's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Ratchaburi 80% (last 10 home games) | Chonburi FC 80% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ratchaburi vs Chonburi FC | Competition: Thai League 1, matchday 10 | Venue: Dragon Solar Park • Kick-off: Sunday 5 November 2023 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ratchaburi 55% | Draw 22% | Chonburi FC 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% (Under 31%) | BTTS Yes 67% (No 33%) | xG Ratchaburi 2.17 / Chonburi FC 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Ratchaburi attack 1.229 / def 0.952 | Chonburi FC attack 1.155 / def 1.034 | league avg home 1.710 / away 1.241 • Poisson stance: Ratchaburi (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.17
Ratchaburi xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Chonburi FC xG
67%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ratchaburi vs Chonburi FC FAQs
What time does Ratchaburi vs Chonburi FC kick off?
Ratchaburi vs Chonburi FC kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Sunday 5 November 2023 at Dragon Solar Park.
What was the final score in Ratchaburi vs Chonburi FC?
Ratchaburi 1 - 2 Chonburi FC.
Where is Ratchaburi vs Chonburi FC being played?
The match is being played at Dragon Solar Park.
What competition is Ratchaburi vs Chonburi FC part of?
Ratchaburi vs Chonburi FC is a Thai League 1 fixture (matchday 10) (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Ratchaburi vs Chonburi FC?
Our statistical model gives Ratchaburi a 55% chance of winning, Chonburi FC a 23% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Ratchaburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ratchaburi vs Chonburi FC?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Ratchaburi and Chonburi FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Ratchaburi vs Chonburi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Ratchaburi's attack at 1.23x the league average against Chonburi FC's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 2.17 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Chonburi FC's attack (1.16x) against Ratchaburi's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
These ratings are built from Ratchaburi's last 39 games and Chonburi FC's last 37 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ratchaburi Win
55%
1.81
22%
4.60
23%
4.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
2 – 0
6.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.17
Ratchaburi xG
Total xG
3.54
1.36
Chonburi FC xG
1.81
55%
Home win
4.60
22%
Draw
4.36
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
2.99
Clean Sheet
26%
3.91
11%
8.79
Win to Nil
14%
7.07
3%
38.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 8.6 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.4 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 6.8 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ratchaburi vs Chonburi FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ratchaburi vs Chonburi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Ratchaburi and Chonburi FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.17 expected goals for Ratchaburi and 1.36 for Chonburi FC, a combined total of 3.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Ratchaburi vs Chonburi FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 37 outings, Ratchaburi have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 11W 13D 13L record — L-W-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Chonburi FC's form line: 14W 8D 15L from 37 games, 1.35 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.24 PPG for Ratchaburi against 1.35 for Chonburi FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Ratchaburi have posted 1.61 PPG from their last 18 home games (7W 8D 3L).
On the road, Chonburi FC have gone 4W 5D 9L from their last 18 away games — 0.94 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.35 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Chonburi FC's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ratchaburi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ratchaburi are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Chonburi FC are on 1.46 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 37 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ratchaburi
Blended
Chonburi FC
Early Season
Ratchaburi (Home) vs Chonburi FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ratchaburi
Blended
Chonburi FC
Early Season
❓ Ratchaburi vs Chonburi FC Form FAQs
What form are Ratchaburi and Chonburi FC in coming into this match?
Ratchaburi have gone 11W 13D 13L in their last 37 games (1.24 PPG), while Chonburi FC have gone 14W 8D 15L in their last 37 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ratchaburi at home or Chonburi FC away?
Ratchaburi's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ratchaburi at home: 1.61 PPG; Chonburi FC away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 9 H2H matches between Ratchaburi and Chonburi FC, the earliest from November 2021. All of them came in Thai League 1. The most recent was as recently as 24 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Chonburi FC won Chonburi FC 3-0 Ratchaburi on 28 Nov 2021, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ratchaburi have gone 1W 2D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Chonburi FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Ratchaburi
2
Draws
3
Chonburi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Ratchaburi vs Chonburi FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Chonburi FC?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Ratchaburi have won 4, Chonburi FC have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ratchaburi and Chonburi FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 October 2026: Ratchaburi 1-2 Chonburi FC.
Who has won more matches between Ratchaburi and Chonburi FC?
Ratchaburi have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ratchaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Chonburi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Ratchaburi, 67% for Chonburi FC — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 28% (Ratchaburi) and 56% (Chonburi FC).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ratchaburi home games / Chonburi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ratchaburi vs Chonburi FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ratchaburi and Chonburi FC matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Ratchaburi's games and 67% of Chonburi FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Ratchaburi and Chonburi FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 28% of Ratchaburi's recent games and 56% of Chonburi FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ratchaburi and Chonburi FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 61% of Ratchaburi's recent matches and 83% of Chonburi FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Chonburi FC defy the odds to beat Ratchaburi 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chonburi FC beat Ratchaburi 1-2 at Dragon Solar Park, Regular Season - 10, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ratchaburi 2.17 xG and Chonburi FC 1.36 xG, a combined 3.54. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Ratchaburi fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ratchaburi attack 1.23 / defence 0.95 against Chonburi FC attack 1.16 / defence 1.03, drawn from 39/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ratchaburi 55% | Draw 22% | Chonburi FC 23%, with Ratchaburi to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Chonburi FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ratchaburi 30%, Chonburi FC 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ratchaburi's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Chonburi FC's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ratchaburi 1.24 PPG, Chonburi FC 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chonburi FC win broke the near-deadlock. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.