Ratchaburi vs Chiangrai United – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ratchaburi at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ratchaburi vs Chiangrai United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 19 as Ratchaburi welcome Chiangrai United to Dragon Solar Park. Kick-off is set for Saturday 27 February 2027 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Ratchaburi have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: D W W L W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Ratchaburi have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ratchaburi have posted 6W 2D 2L at Dragon Solar Park — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Chiangrai United — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Chiangrai United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Chiangrai United have posted 1W 5D 4L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Ratchaburi carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 1.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 10 previous encounters have yielded 4 wins for Ratchaburi, 4 for Chiangrai United and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.6 per contest from 10 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2026, ended 2–1 with Ratchaburi winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Ratchaburi trading profile (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Chiangrai United trading profile (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ratchaburi 58% versus Chiangrai United 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ratchaburi 58% | Chiangrai United 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ratchaburi 2.11 xG and Chiangrai United 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ratchaburi attack 1.385 / defence 0.869 | Chiangrai United attack 0.811 / defence 1.056. League average goals — home 1.445 / away 1.456. Ratchaburi carry an above-average attack strength of 1.385 — their λ of 2.11 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 37 Ratchaburi games / 36 Chiangrai United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ratchaburi 62% | Draw 22% | Chiangrai United 17%. Fair-value odds: Ratchaburi 1.61 | Draw 4.55 | Chiangrai United 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Ratchaburi (62%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ratchaburi as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.14 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ratchaburi 70% | Chiangrai United 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ratchaburi vs Chiangrai United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Dragon Solar Park • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Feb 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ratchaburi 62% | Draw 22% | Chiangrai United 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 57% | xG Ratchaburi 2.11 / Chiangrai United 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Ratchaburi attack 1.385 / def 0.869 | Chiangrai United attack 0.811 / def 1.056 | league avg home 1.445 / away 1.456 • Poisson stance: Ratchaburi (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.11
Ratchaburi xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Chiangrai United xG
57%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ratchaburi vs Chiangrai United kick off?
Ratchaburi vs Chiangrai United is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Saturday 27 February 2027 at Dragon Solar Park.
Where is Ratchaburi vs Chiangrai United being played?
The match is being played at Dragon Solar Park.
What competition is Ratchaburi vs Chiangrai United part of?
Ratchaburi vs Chiangrai United is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Ratchaburi vs Chiangrai United?
Our statistical model gives Ratchaburi a 62% chance of winning, Chiangrai United a 17% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Ratchaburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ratchaburi vs Chiangrai United?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Ratchaburi and Chiangrai United will score (BTTS).
Will Ratchaburi vs Chiangrai United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Chiangrai United?
Record (10 meetings): Ratchaburi 4W | Draws 2 | Chiangrai United 4W.
What form are Ratchaburi and Chiangrai United in?
Ratchaburi (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. Chiangrai United (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Ratchaburi's attack at 1.39x the league average against Chiangrai United's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 2.11 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Chiangrai United's attack versus Ratchaburi's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ratchaburi Win
62%
1.63
22%
4.60
17%
5.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.11
Ratchaburi xG
Total xG
3.14
1.03
Chiangrai United xG
1.63
62%
Home win
4.60
22%
Draw
5.97
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
12%
8.26
Win to Nil
22%
4.53
2%
49.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.2 | 9.4 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 7.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ratchaburi vs Chiangrai United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Ratchaburi and Chiangrai United expected to score?
The model projects 2.11 expected goals for Ratchaburi and 1.03 for Chiangrai United, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Ratchaburi vs Chiangrai United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ratchaburi's recent record stands at 22W 5D 9L from 36 games, a 1.97 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Ratchaburi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Chiangrai United, meanwhile, have gone 10W 14D 12L across 36 games — 1.22 PPG, with D-L-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Chiangrai United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ratchaburi by 0.75 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Chiangrai United heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Ratchaburi have managed 10W 3D 4L from 17 games — 1.94 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Chiangrai United's away record stands at 2W 10D 5L across 17 trips, a 0.94 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ratchaburi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ratchaburi are averaging 1.97 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Chiangrai United are on 1.11 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chiangrai United in 61%.
Last 36 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ratchaburi
Early Season
Chiangrai United
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ratchaburi and Chiangrai United in coming into this match?
Ratchaburi have gone 22W 5D 9L in their last 36 games (1.97 PPG), while Chiangrai United have gone 10W 14D 12L in their last 36 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ratchaburi at home or Chiangrai United away?
Ratchaburi's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ratchaburi at home: 1.94 PPG; Chiangrai United away: 0.94 PPG.
Have Ratchaburi or Chiangrai United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ratchaburi have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Chiangrai United in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. The two were last together as recently as 18 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Dec 2023, when Ratchaburi won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ratchaburi's record when hosting Chiangrai United specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Ratchaburi
2
Draws
4
Chiangrai United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Chiangrai United?
From 10 meetings on record, Ratchaburi have won 4, Chiangrai United have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ratchaburi and Chiangrai United last play each other?
They last met on 18 October 2026, when Chiangrai United 1-2 Ratchaburi.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ratchaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time.
Chiangrai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ratchaburi 47%, Chiangrai United 82% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Ratchaburi) and 41% (Chiangrai United).
On the defensive side: Ratchaburi keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ratchaburi home games / Chiangrai United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ratchaburi play Chiangrai United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Ratchaburi's games and 82% of Chiangrai United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ratchaburi vs Chiangrai United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Ratchaburi's recent games and 41% of Chiangrai United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ratchaburi and Chiangrai United tend to score early?
Ratchaburi have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Chiangrai United in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.